Bayesian sample size determination for cost-effectiveness studies with censored data.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Beavers DP
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5755783 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:This paper develops Bayesian sample size formulae for experiments comparing two groups, where relevant preexperimental information from multiple sources can be incorporated in a robust prior to support both the design and analysis. We use commensurate predictive priors for borrowing of information and further place Gamma mixture priors on the precisions to account for preliminary belief about the pairwise (in)commensurability between parameters that underpin the historical and new experiments. Averaged over the probability space of the new experimental data, appropriate sample sizes are found according to criteria that control certain aspects of the posterior distribution, such as the coverage probability or length of a defined density region. Our Bayesian methodology can be applied to circumstances that compare two normal means, proportions, or event times. When nuisance parameters (such as variance) in the new experiment are unknown, a prior distribution can further be specified based on preexperimental data. Exact solutions are available based on most of the criteria considered for Bayesian sample size determination, while a search procedure is described in cases for which there are no closed-form expressions. We illustrate the application of our sample size formulae in the design of clinical trials, where pretrial information is available to be leveraged. Hypothetical data examples, motivated by a rare-disease trial with an elicited expert prior opinion, and a comprehensive performance evaluation of the proposed methodology are presented.
| S-EPMC10952893 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: Research for developing search strategies to retrieve high-quality clinical journal articles from MEDLINE is expensive and time-consuming. The objective of this study was to determine the minimal number of high-quality articles in a journal subset that would need to be hand-searched to update or create new MEDLINE search strategies for treatment, diagnosis, and prognosis studies. METHODS: The desired width of the 95% confidence intervals (W) for the lowest sensitivity among existing search strategies was used to calculate the number of high-quality articles needed to reliably update search strategies. New search strategies were derived in journal subsets formed by 2 approaches: random sampling of journals and top journals (having the most high-quality articles). The new strategies were tested in both the original large journal database and in a low-yielding journal (having few high-quality articles) subset. RESULTS: For treatment studies, if W was 10% or less for the lowest sensitivity among our existing search strategies, a subset of 15 randomly selected journals or 2 top journals were adequate for updating search strategies, based on each approach having at least 99 high-quality articles. The new strategies derived in 15 randomly selected journals or 2 top journals performed well in the original large journal database. Nevertheless, the new search strategies developed using the random sampling approach performed better than those developed using the top journal approach in a low-yielding journal subset. For studies of diagnosis and prognosis, no journal subset had enough high-quality articles to achieve the expected W (10%). CONCLUSION: The approach of randomly sampling a small subset of journals that includes sufficient high-quality articles is an efficient way to update or create search strategies for high-quality articles on therapy in MEDLINE. The concentrations of diagnosis and prognosis articles are too low for this approach.
| S-EPMC2569926 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Value of information is now recognized as a reference method in the decision process underpinning cost-effectiveness evaluation. The expected value of perfect information (EVPI) is the expected value from completely reducing the uncertainty surrounding the cost-effectiveness of an innovative intervention. Among sample size calculation methods used in cost-effectiveness studies, only one is coherent with this decision framework. It uses a Bayesian approach and requires data of a pre-existing cost-effectiveness study to derive a valid prior EVPI. When evaluating the cost-effectiveness of innovations, no observed prior EVPI is usually available to calculate the sample size. We here propose a sample size calculation method for cost-effectiveness studies, that follows the value of information theory, and, being frequentist, can be based on assumptions if no observed prior EVPI is available. METHODS:The general principle of our method is to define the sampling distribution of the incremental net monetary benefit (?B), or the distribution of ?B that would be observed in a planned cost-effectiveness study of size n. Based on this sampling distribution, the EVPI that would remain at the end of the trial (EVPIn) is estimated. The optimal sample size of the planned cost-effectiveness study is the n for which the cost of including an additional participant becomes equal or higher than the value of the information gathered through this inclusion. RESULTS:Our method is illustrated through four examples. The first one is used to present the method in depth and describe how the sample size may vary according to the parameters' value. The three other examples are used to illustrate in different situations how the sample size may vary according to the ceiling cost-effectiveness ratio, and how it compares with a test statistic-based method. We developed an R package (EBASS) to run these calculations. CONCLUSIONS:Our sample size calculation method follows the value of information theory that is now recommended for analyzing and interpreting cost-effectiveness data, and sets the size of a study that balances its cost and the value of its information.
| S-EPMC6198488 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSample size planning for longitudinal data is crucial when designing mediation studies because sufficient statistical power is not only required in grant applications and peer-reviewed publications, but is essential to reliable research results. However, sample size determination is not straightforward for mediation analysis of longitudinal design.MethodsTo facilitate planning the sample size for longitudinal mediation studies with a multilevel mediation model, this article provides the sample size required to achieve 80% power by simulations under various sizes of the mediation effect, within-subject correlations and numbers of repeated measures. The sample size calculation is based on three commonly used mediation tests: Sobel's method, distribution of product method and the bootstrap method.ResultsAmong the three methods of testing the mediation effects, Sobel's method required the largest sample size to achieve 80% power. Bootstrapping and the distribution of the product method performed similarly and were more powerful than Sobel's method, as reflected by the relatively smaller sample sizes. For all three methods, the sample size required to achieve 80% power depended on the value of the ICC (i.e., within-subject correlation). A larger value of ICC typically required a larger sample size to achieve 80% power. Simulation results also illustrated the advantage of the longitudinal study design. The sample size tables for most encountered scenarios in practice have also been published for convenient use.ConclusionsExtensive simulations study showed that the distribution of the product method and bootstrapping method have superior performance to the Sobel's method, but the product method was recommended to use in practice in terms of less computation time load compared to the bootstrapping method. A R package has been developed for the product method of sample size determination in mediation longitudinal study design.
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Project description:Bayesian analysis of a non-inferiority trial is advantageous in allowing direct probability statements to be made about the relative treatment difference rather than relying on an arbitrary and often poorly justified non-inferiority margin. When the primary analysis will be Bayesian, a Bayesian approach to sample size determination will often be appropriate for consistency with the analysis. We demonstrate three Bayesian approaches to choosing sample size for non-inferiority trials with binary outcomes and review their advantages and disadvantages. First, we present a predictive power approach for determining sample size using the probability that the trial will produce a convincing result in the final analysis. Next, we determine sample size by considering the expected posterior probability of non-inferiority in the trial. Finally, we demonstrate a precision-based approach. We apply these methods to a non-inferiority trial in antiretroviral therapy for treatment of HIV-infected children. A predictive power approach would be most accessible in practical settings, because it is analogous to the standard frequentist approach. Sample sizes are larger than with frequentist calculations unless an informative analysis prior is specified, because appropriate allowance is made for uncertainty in the assumed design parameters, ignored in frequentist calculations. An expected posterior probability approach will lead to a smaller sample size and is appropriate when the focus is on estimating posterior probability rather than on testing. A precision-based approach would be useful when sample size is restricted by limits on recruitment or costs, but it would be difficult to decide on sample size using this approach alone.
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Project description:1. The variational properties of living organisms are an important component of current evolutionary theory. As a consequence, researchers working on the field of multivariate evolution have increasingly used integration and evolvability statistics as a way of capturing the potentially complex patterns of trait association and their effects over evolutionary trajectories. Little attention has been paid, however, to the cascading effects that inaccurate estimates of trait covariance have on these widely used evolutionary statistics. 2. Here, we analyze the relationship between sampling effort and inaccuracy in evolvability and integration statistics calculated from 10-trait matrices with varying patterns of covariation and magnitudes of integration. We then extrapolate our initial approach to different numbers of traits and different magnitudes of integration and estimate general equations relating the inaccuracy of the statistics of interest to sampling effort. We validate our equations using a dataset of cranial traits, and use them to make sample size recommendations. 3. Our results suggest that highly inaccurate estimates of evolvability and integration statistics resulting from small sample sizes are likely common in the literature, given the sampling effort necessary to properly estimate them. We also show that patterns of covariation have no effect on the sampling properties of these statistics, but overall magnitudes of integration interact with sample size and lead to varying degrees of bias, imprecision, and inaccuracy. 4. Finally, we provide R functions that can be used to calculate recommended sample sizes or to simply estimate the level of inaccuracy that should be expected in these statistics, given a sampling design.
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Project description:Much progress has been made in the area of adaptive designs for clinical trials. However, little has been done regarding adaptive designs to identify optimal treatment strategies in animal studies. Motivated by an animal study of a novel strategy for treating strokes, we propose a Bayesian multi-stage cost-effectiveness design to simultaneously identify the optimal dose and determine the therapeutic treatment window for administrating the experimental agent. We consider a non-monotonic pattern for the dose-schedule-efficacy relationship and develop an adaptive shrinkage algorithm to assign more cohorts to admissible strategies. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate the performance of the proposed design by comparing it with two standard designs. These simulation studies show that the proposed design yields a significantly higher probability of selecting the optimal strategy, while it is generally more efficient and practical in terms of resource usage.
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Project description:Motivated by data gathered in an oral health study, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach for population-averaged modeling of correlated time-to-event data, when the responses can only be determined to lie in an interval obtained from a sequence of examination times and the determination of the occurrence of the event is subject to misclassification. The joint model for the true, unobserved time-to-event data is defined semiparametrically; proportional hazards, proportional odds, and accelerated failure time (proportional quantiles) are all fit and compared. The baseline distribution is modeled as a flexible tailfree prior. The joint model is completed by considering a parametric copula function. A general misclassification model is discussed in detail, considering the possibility that different examiners were involved in the assessment of the occurrence of the events for a given subject across time. We provide empirical evidence that the model can be used to estimate the underlying time-to-event distribution and the misclassification parameters without any external information about the latter parameters. We also illustrate the effect on the statistical inferences of neglecting the presence of misclassification.
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Project description:Statistical criterion for evaluation of individual bioequivalence (IBE) between generic and innovative products often involves a function of the second moments of normal distributions. Under replicated crossover designs, the aggregate criterion for IBE proposed by the guidance of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) contains the squared mean difference, variance of subject-by-formulation interaction, and the difference in within-subject variances between the generic and innovative products. The upper confidence bound for the linearized form of the criterion derived by the modified large sample (MLS) method is proposed in the 2001 U.S. FDA guidance as a testing procedure for evaluation of IBE. Due to the complexity of the power function for the criterion based on the second moments, literature on sample size determination for the inference of IBE is scarce. Under the two-sequence and four-period crossover design, we derive the asymptotic distribution of the upper confidence bound of the linearized criterion. Hence the asymptotic power can be derived for sample size determination for evaluation of IBE. Results of numerical studies are reported. Discussion of sample size determination for evaluation of IBE based on the aggregate criterion of the second moments in practical applications is provided.
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Project description:Owing to the rapid development of biomarkers in clinical trials, joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data has gained its popularity in the recent years because it reduces bias and provides improvements of efficiency in the assessment of treatment effects and other prognostic factors. Although much effort has been put into inferential methods in joint modeling, such as estimation and hypothesis testing, design aspects have not been formally considered. Statistical design, such as sample size and power calculations, is a crucial first step in clinical trials. In this paper, we derive a closed-form sample size formula for estimating the effect of the longitudinal process in joint modeling, and extend Schoenfeld's sample size formula to the joint modeling setting for estimating the overall treatment effect. The sample size formula we develop is quite general, allowing for p-degree polynomial trajectories. The robustness of our model is demonstrated in simulation studies with linear and quadratic trajectories. We discuss the impact of the within-subject variability on power and data collection strategies, such as spacing and frequency of repeated measurements, in order to maximize the power. When the within-subject variability is large, different data collection strategies can influence the power of the study in a significant way. Optimal frequency of repeated measurements also depends on the nature of the trajectory with higher polynomial trajectories and larger measurement error requiring more frequent measurements.
| S-EPMC3278672 | biostudies-other