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Using expert knowledge to incorporate uncertainty in cause-of-death assignments for modeling of cause-specific mortality.

ABSTRACT: Implicit and explicit use of expert knowledge to inform ecological analyses is becoming increasingly common because it often represents the sole source of information in many circumstances. Thus, there is a need to develop statistical methods that explicitly incorporate expert knowledge, and can successfully leverage this information while properly accounting for associated uncertainty during analysis. Studies of cause-specific mortality provide an example of implicit use of expert knowledge when causes-of-death are uncertain and assigned based on the observer's knowledge of the most likely cause. To explicitly incorporate this use of expert knowledge and the associated uncertainty, we developed a statistical model for estimating cause-specific mortality using a data augmentation approach within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Specifically, for each mortality event, we elicited the observer's belief of cause-of-death by having them specify the probability that the death was due to each potential cause. These probabilities were then used as prior predictive values within our framework. This hierarchical framework permitted a simple and rigorous estimation method that was easily modified to include covariate effects and regularizing terms. Although applied to survival analysis, this method can be extended to any event-time analysis with multiple event types, for which there is uncertainty regarding the true outcome. We conducted simulations to determine how our framework compared to traditional approaches that use expert knowledge implicitly and assume that cause-of-death is specified accurately. Simulation results supported the inclusion of observer uncertainty in cause-of-death assignment in modeling of cause-specific mortality to improve model performance and inference. Finally, we applied the statistical model we developed and a traditional method to cause-specific survival data for white-tailed deer, and compared results. We demonstrate that model selection results changed between the two approaches, and incorporating observer knowledge in cause-of-death increased the variability associated with parameter estimates when compared to the traditional approach. These differences between the two approaches can impact reported results, and therefore, it is critical to explicitly incorporate expert knowledge in statistical methods to ensure rigorous inference.

SUBMITTER: Walsh DP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5756890 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using expert knowledge to incorporate uncertainty in cause-of-death assignments for modeling of cause-specific mortality.

Walsh Daniel P DP Norton Andrew S AS Storm Daniel J DJ Van Deelen Timothy R TR Heisey Dennis M DM

Ecology and evolution 20171130 1

Implicit and explicit use of expert knowledge to inform ecological analyses is becoming increasingly common because it often represents the sole source of information in many circumstances. Thus, there is a need to develop statistical methods that explicitly incorporate expert knowledge, and can successfully leverage this information while properly accounting for associated uncertainty during analysis. Studies of cause-specific mortality provide an example of implicit use of expert knowledge whe ...[more]

PMID: 29321889

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Project description:BackgroundTrends in cause-specific mortality in most African countries are currently estimated from epidemiological models because the coverage of the civil registration system is low and national statistics on causes of death are unreliable at the national level. We aim to evaluate the performance of the death notification system in Antananarivo, the capital city of Madagascar, to inform cause-of-death statistics.MethodsInformation on the sex of the deceased, dates of birth and death, and underlying cause of death were transcribed from death registers maintained in Antananarivo. Causes of death were coded in ICD-9 and mapped to cause categories from the Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD). The performance of the notification system was assessed based on the Vital Statistics Performance Index, including six dimensions: completeness of death registration, quality of cause of death reporting, quality of age and sex reporting, internal consistency, level of cause-specific detail, and data availability and timeliness. We redistributed garbage codes and compared cause-specific mortality fractions in death records and estimates from the GBD with concordance correlation coefficients.ResultsThe death notification system in Antananarivo performed well on most dimensions, although 31% of all deaths registered over the period 1976-2015 were assigned to ICD codes considered as "major garbage codes" in the GBD 2016. The completeness of death notification, estimated with indirect demographic techniques, was higher than 90% in the period 1975-1993, and recent under-five mortality rates were consistent with estimates from Demographic and Health Surveys referring to the capital city. After redistributing garbage codes, cause-specific mortality fractions derived from death notification data were consistent with GBD 2016 for the whole country in the 1990s, with concordance correlation coefficients higher than 90%. There were larger deviations in recent years, with concordance correlation coefficients in 2015 at 0.74 (95% CI 0.66-0.81) for men and 0.81 (95% CI 0.74-0.86) for women.ConclusionsDeath notification in Antananarivo is a low-cost data source allowing real-time mortality monitoring, with a potential to improve disease burden estimates. Further efforts should be directed towards evaluating data quality in urban centers in Madagascar and other African countries to fill important data gaps on causes of death.

Project description:ImportanceHypochondriasis, also known as health anxiety disorder, is a prevalent, yet underdiagnosed psychiatric disorder characterized by persistent preoccupation about having serious and progressive physical disorders. The risk of mortality among individuals with hypochondriasis is unknown.ObjectiveTo investigate all-cause and cause-specific mortality among a large cohort of individuals with hypochondriasis.Design, setting, and participantsThis Swedish nationwide matched-cohort study included 4129 individuals with a validated International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) diagnosis of hypochondriasis assigned between January 1, 1997, and December 31, 2020, and 41 290 demographically matched individuals without hypochondriasis. Individuals with diagnoses of dysmorphophobia (body dysmorphic disorder) assigned during the same period were excluded from the cohort. Statistical analyses were conducted between May 5 and September 27, 2023.ExposureValidated ICD-10 diagnoses of hypochondriasis in the National Patient Register.Main outcome and measuresAll-cause and cause-specific mortality in the Cause of Death Register. Covariates included birth year, sex, county of residence, country of birth (Sweden vs abroad), latest recorded education, civil status, family income, and lifetime psychiatric comorbidities. Stratified Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of all-cause and cause-specific mortality.ResultsOf the 4129 individuals with hypochondriasis (2342 women [56.7%]; median age at first diagnosis, 34.5 years [IQR, 26.3-46.1 years]) and 41 290 demographically matched individuals without hypochondriasis (23 420 women [56.7%]; median age at matching, 34.5 years [IQR, 26.4-46.2 years]) in the study, 268 individuals with hypochondriasis and 1761 individuals without hypochondriasis died during the study period, corresponding to crude mortality rates of 8.5 and 5.5 per 1000 person-years, respectively. In models adjusted for sociodemographic variables, an increased rate of all-cause mortality was observed among individuals with hypochondriasis compared with individuals without hypochondriasis (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.47-1.93). An increased rate was observed for both natural (HR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.38-1.85) and unnatural (HR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.61-3.68) causes of death. Most deaths from unnatural causes were attributed to suicide (HR, 4.14; 95% CI, 2.44-7.03). The results were generally robust to additional adjustment for lifetime psychiatric disorders.Conclusions and relevanceThis cohort study suggests that individuals with hypochondriasis have an increased risk of death from both natural and unnatural causes, particularly suicide, compared with individuals from the general population without hypochondriasis. Improved detection and access to evidence-based care should be prioritized.

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Using expert knowledge to incorporate uncertainty in cause-of-death assignments for modeling of cause-specific mortality.

Publications

Using expert knowledge to incorporate uncertainty in cause-of-death assignments for modeling of cause-specific mortality.

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