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Epidemiological modelling of the 2005 French riots: a spreading wave and the role of contagion.

ABSTRACT: As a large-scale instance of dramatic collective behaviour, the 2005 French riots started in a poor suburb of Paris, then spread in all of France, lasting about three weeks. Remarkably, although there were no displacements of rioters, the riot activity did travel. Access to daily national police data has allowed us to explore the dynamics of riot propagation. Here we show that an epidemic-like model, with just a few parameters and a single sociological variable characterizing neighbourhood deprivation, accounts quantitatively for the full spatio-temporal dynamics of the riots. This is the first time that such data-driven modelling involving contagion both within and between cities (through geographic proximity or media) at the scale of a country, and on a daily basis, is performed. Moreover, we give a precise mathematical characterization to the expression "wave of riots", and provide a visualization of the propagation around Paris, exhibiting the wave in a way not described before. The remarkable agreement between model and data demonstrates that geographic proximity played a major role in the propagation, even though information was readily available everywhere through media. Finally, we argue that our approach gives a general framework for the modelling of the dynamics of spontaneous collective uprisings.

SUBMITTER: Bonnasse-Gahot L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5758762 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Epidemiological modelling of the 2005 French riots: a spreading wave and the role of contagion.

Bonnasse-Gahot Laurent L Berestycki Henri H Depuiset Marie-Aude MA Gordon Mirta B MB Roché Sebastian S Rodriguez Nancy N Nadal Jean-Pierre JP

Scientific reports 20180108 1

As a large-scale instance of dramatic collective behaviour, the 2005 French riots started in a poor suburb of Paris, then spread in all of France, lasting about three weeks. Remarkably, although there were no displacements of rioters, the riot activity did travel. Access to daily national police data has allowed us to explore the dynamics of riot propagation. Here we show that an epidemic-like model, with just a few parameters and a single sociological variable characterizing neighbourhood depri ...[more]

PMID: 29311553

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Project description:BackgroundPrevious studies have highlighted the increased risk of contracting the COVID-19 for health-care workers and suggest that oral health-care workers may carry the greatest risk. Considering the transmission route of the SARS-CoV-2 infection, a similar increased risk can be hypothesized for other respiratory infections. However, no study has specifically assessed the risk of contracting COVID-19 within the dental profession.MethodsAn online survey was conducted within a population of French dental professionals between April 1 and April 29, 2020. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to explore risk indicators associated with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and COVID-19-related clinical phenotypes (i.e. phenotypes present in 15% or more of SARS-CoV-2-positive cases).Results4172 dentists and 1868 dental assistants responded to the survey, representing approximately 10% of French oral health-care workers. The prevalence of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 was 1.9% for dentists and 0.8% for dental assistants. Higher prevalence was found for COVID-19-related clinical phenotypes both in dentists (15.0%) and dental assistants (11.8%). Chronic kidney disease and obesity were associated with increased odds of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, whereas working in a practice limited to endodontics was associated with decreased odds. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, use of public transportation and having a practice limited to periodontology were associated with increased odds of presenting a COVID-19-related clinical phenotype. Moreover, changes in work rhythm or clinical practice were associated with decreased odds of both outcomes.ConclusionsAlthough oral health-care professionals were surprisingly not at higher risk of COVID-19 than the general population, specific risk indicators could exist, notably among high aerosol-generating dental subspecialties such as periodontology. Considering the similarities between COVID-19-related clinical phenotypes other viral respiratory infections, lessons can be learned from the COVID-19 pandemic regarding the usefulness of equipping and protecting oral health-care workers, notably during seasonal viral outbreaks, to limit infection spread.ImpactResults from this study may provide important insights for relevant health authorities regarding the overall infection status of oral health-care workers in the current pandemic and draw attention to particular at-risk groups, as illustrated in the present study. Protecting oral health-care workers could be an interesting public health strategy to prevent the resurgence of COVID-19 and/or the emergence of new pandemics.

Dataset Information

Epidemiological modelling of the 2005 French riots: a spreading wave and the role of contagion.

Publications

Epidemiological modelling of the 2005 French riots: a spreading wave and the role of contagion.

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