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Adaptation required to preserve future high-end river flood risk at present levels.

ABSTRACT: Earth's surface temperature will continue to rise for another 20 to 30 years even with the strongest carbon emission reduction currently considered. The associated changes in rainfall patterns can result in an increased flood risk worldwide. We compute the required increase in flood protection to keep high-end fluvial flood risk at present levels. The analysis is carried out worldwide for subnational administrative units. Most of the United States, Central Europe, and Northeast and West Africa, as well as large parts of India and Indonesia, require the strongest adaptation effort. More than half of the United States needs to at least double their protection within the next two decades. Thus, the need for adaptation to increased river flood is a global problem affecting industrialized regions as much as developing countries.

SUBMITTER: Willner SN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5762193 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Adaptation required to preserve future high-end river flood risk at present levels.

Willner Sven N SN Levermann Anders A Zhao Fang F Frieler Katja K

Science advances 20180110 1

Earth's surface temperature will continue to rise for another 20 to 30 years even with the strongest carbon emission reduction currently considered. The associated changes in rainfall patterns can result in an increased flood risk worldwide. We compute the required increase in flood protection to keep high-end fluvial flood risk at present levels. The analysis is carried out worldwide for subnational administrative units. Most of the United States, Central Europe, and Northeast and West Africa, ...[more]

PMID: 29326981

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Project description:In northeastern boreal Canada, the long-term perspective on spring flooding is hampered by the absence of long gage records. Changes in the tree-ring anatomy of periodically flooded trees have allowed the reconstruction of historical floods in unregulated hydrological systems. In regulated rivers, the study of flood rings could recover past flood history, assuming that the effects of hydrological regulation on their production can be understood. This study analyzes the effect of regulation on the flood-ring occurrence (visual intensity and relative frequency) and on ring widths in Fraxinus nigra trees growing at five sites distributed along the Driftwood River floodplain. Driftwood River was regulated by a dam in 1917 that was replaced at the same location in 1953. Ring width revealed little, to no evidence, of the impact of river regulation, in contrast to the flood rings. Prior to 1917, high relative frequencies of well-defined flood rings were recorded during known flood years, as indicated by significant correlations with reconstructed spring discharge of the nearby Harricana River. After the construction and the replacement of the dam, relative frequencies of flood rings and their intensities gradually decreased. Flood-ring relative frequencies after 1917, and particularly after 1953, were mostly composed of weakly defined (less distinct) flood rings with some corresponding to known flood years and others likely reflecting dam management. The strength of the correlations with the instrumental Harricana River discharge also gradually decrease starting after 1917. Compared with upper floodplain trees, shoreline trees at each site recorded flood rings less frequently following the construction of the first but especially of the second dam, indicating that water level regulation limited flooding in the floodplains. Compared with the downstream site to the dam, the upstream ones recorded significantly more flood rings in the postdam period, reemphasizing the importance of considering the position of the site along with the river continuum and site conditions in relation to flood exposure. The results demonstrated that sampling trees in multiple riparian stands and along with various hydrological contexts at a far distance of the dams could help disentangle the flooding signal from the dam management signal.

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Adaptation required to preserve future high-end river flood risk at present levels.

Publications

Adaptation required to preserve future high-end river flood risk at present levels.

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