The maximum contraceptive prevalence 'demand curve': guiding discussions on programmatic investments.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Weinberger M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5771155 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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The maximum contraceptive prevalence 'demand curve': guiding discussions on programmatic investments.
Weinberger Michelle M Sonneveldt Emily E Stover John J
Gates open research 20171222
Most frameworks for family planning include both access and demand interventions. Understanding how these two are linked and when each should be prioritized is difficult. The maximum contraceptive prevalence 'demand curve' was created based on a relationship between the modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR) and mean ideal number of children to allow for a quantitative assessment of the balance between access and demand interventions. The curve represents the maximum mCPR that is likely to ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundAssessing implementation fidelity is highly recommended, but successful approaches can be challenging. Family Planning Elevated (FPE) is a statewide contraceptive initiative which partnered with 28 health clinics across Utah. To assess implementation fidelity, we developed in-situ high-fidelity simulation training to both determine clinic adherence to FPE and offer education to implementing teams. This study aimed to develop, pilot, and assess the use of simulation as a tool for measuring implementation fidelity.MethodsWe developed two simulation scenarios to determine implementation fidelity: one scenario wherein a client is seeking a new method of contraception and another in which the same client has returned to discontinue the method. Both simulations contained multiple aspects of program implementation (e.g., determining program eligibility). We then offered simulations to all FPE partner organizations. To assess simulation training as a tool for determining implementation fidelity, we developed strategies aligned with each aspect of an adapted RE-AIM framework, including pre-post surveys, acceptability and self-efficacy testing, a checklist for programmatic adherence, field notes, action planning and analysis of monitoring data.ResultsFifteen clinical sites and 71 team members participated in the in-situ simulations. Assessment of the checklist showed that 90% of the clinics successfully demonstrated key program components, including person-centered counseling techniques such as sitting at the patient's level (95.8%); asking open-ended questions (100%); and explaining how to use the contraceptive method selected (91.7%). More than half of clinics fell short in programmatic areas including: confirmation that the FPE program covered same-day intrauterine device insertion (54.2%), and education on health risks associated with the selected contraceptive method (58.3%). After simulation, participants reported improved knowledge of how FPE works (p = < 0.001), increased ability to identify FPE-eligible clients (p = 0.02) and heightened self-efficacy in helping clients select a method (p = 0.03). Participants were satisfied with the simulations, with most (84.1%) reporting that the simulation exceeded their expectations.ConclusionsHighly-realistic in-situ family planning simulations are acceptable to participants, positively change knowledge and clinical team confidence, and can identify systems gaps in clinical care and program implementation. Simulation offers a reciprocal way of monitoring implementation fidelity of a family planning access initiative.Trial registrationThis project was determined to be exempt by the IRB of the University of Utah, the larger Family Planning Elevated program under which this pilot study was nested is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03877757 .
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Ambitious global goals have been established to provide universal access to affordable modern contraceptive methods. To measure progress toward such goals in populous countries like Nigeria, it's essential to characterize the current levels and trends of family planning (FP) indicators such as unmet need and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR). Moreover, the substantial heterogeneity across Nigeria and scale of programmatic implementation requires a sub-national resolution of these FP indicators. The aim of this study is to estimate the levels and trends of FP indicators at a subnational scale in Nigeria utilizing all available data and accounting for survey design and uncertainty. METHODS:We utilized all available cross-sectional survey data from Nigeria including the Demographic and Health Surveys, Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, National Nutrition and Health Surveys, and Performance, Monitoring, and Accountability 2020. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model that incorporates all of the individual level data from each survey instrument, accounts for survey uncertainty, leverages spatio-temporal smoothing, and produces probabilistic estimates with uncertainty intervals. RESULTS:We estimate that overall rates and trends of mCPR and unmet need have remained low in Nigeria: the average annual rate of change for mCPR by state is 0.5% (0.4%,0.6%) from 2012-2017. Unmet need by age-parity demographic groups varied significantly across Nigeria; parous women express much higher rates of unmet need than nulliparous women. CONCLUSIONS:Understanding the estimates and trends of FP indicators at a subnational resolution in Nigeria is integral to inform programmatic decision-making. We identify age-parity-state subgroups with large rates of unmet need. We also find conflicting trends by survey instrument across a number of states. Our model-based estimates highlight these inconsistencies, attempt to reconcile the direct survey estimates, and provide uncertainty intervals to enable interpretation of model and survey estimates for decision-making.
| S-EPMC6937659 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ContextOver 20 years of conflict in the DRC, North and South Kivu have experienced cycles of stability and conflict, resulting in a compromised health system and poor sexual and reproductive health outcomes. Modern contraceptive use is low (7.5%) and maternal mortality is high (846 deaths per 100,000 live births). Program partners have supported the Ministry of Health (MOH) in North and South Kivu to provide good quality contraceptive services in public health facilities since 2011.MethodsCross-sectional population-based surveys were conducted in the program areas using a two-stage cluster sampling design to ensure representation in each of six rural health zones. Using MOH population estimates for villages in the catchment areas of supported health facilities, 25 clusters in each zone were selected using probability proportional to size. Within each cluster, 22 households were systematically selected, and one woman of reproductive age (15-49 years) was randomly selected from all eligible women in each household.ResultsModern contraceptive prevalence among women in union ranged from 8.4% to 26.7% in the six health zones; current use of long-acting or permanent method (LAPM) ranged from 2.5% to 19.8%. The majority of women (58.9% to 90.2%) reported receiving their current method for the first time at a health facility supported by the program partners. Over half of women in four health zones reported wanting to continue their method for five years or longer.ConclusionCurrent modern contraceptive use and LAPM use were high in these six health zones compared to DRC Demographic and Health Survey data nationally and provincially. These results were accomplished across all six health zones despite their varied socio-demographic characteristics and different experiences of conflict and displacement. These findings demonstrate that women in these conflict-affected areas want contraception and will choose to use it when good quality services are available to them.
| S-EPMC6641211 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDespite medicalization and legalization of marijuana use, factors influencing demand for marijuana among persons living with HIV (PLWH) are incompletely understood. This knowledge gap undermines effective clinical management and policies. This study used demand curve simulation methods to address these issues.MethodsMarijuana-using PLWH (N = 119) completed experimental tasks to simulate amount of marijuana purchasing/use across different costs (money or time), and likelihood of reselling marijuana or marijuana therapeutic-use registration card in relation to profits. Additional simulations assessed purchasing of marijuana relative to other drug and non-drug goods.ResultsSimulated marijuana use decreased as money and time costs increased. Consumption was greater for participants with more severe Cannabis Use Disorder (CUD) and anxiety, intermediate pain levels, and past 90-day opioid use. Whereas few participants chose to sell their registration card, marijuana resale (diversion) steeply increased with profit. Likelihood of seeking marijuana therapeutic-use certification decreased in relation to registration card money cost, having to visit more physicians to get a signature, and delay to receiving the card, and increased with duration of certification. Participants who reported recent opioid use were more likely to seek certification. Consumption of several commodities assessed was independent of marijuana.ConclusionsSimulated marijuana use was related to participants' clinical profile (CUD, anxiety and pain symptoms, recent opioid use), and unrelated to purchasing other goods. Likelihood of seeking marijuana therapeutic-use registration was affected by several types of costs and recent opioid use. Participants were unlikely to divert registration cards. We discuss clinical and policy implications of these findings.
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Project description:BackgroundDemand for family planning met/satisfied with modern contraceptive methods (mDFPS) has been proposed to track progress in Family Planning (FP) programs for Sustainable Development Goals. This study measured mDFPS among married women of reproductive age (MWRA) in Kenya to identify which groups were not being reached by FP programs.Materials and methodsPerformance, Monitoring and Accountability 2020 (PMA2020) survey data from 2014-2018 was used. PMA2020 surveys are cross-sectional including women 15-49 years. PMA2020 used a 2-stage cluster design with urban/rural regions as strata with random selection of households. Univariate and multivariate analysis was done using stata V15.ResultsOf the 34,832 respondents interviewed from 2014 to 2018, 60.2% were MWRA. There was a significant decrease in demand for FP from 2014 to 2018, p = 0.012. Lowest demand was among 15-19 and 45-49 years old women. Overall, modern contraceptive prevalence rate increased significantly from 54.6% to 60.8%, p = 0.004, being higher for women from urban areas, home visits by health care worker (HCW), educated, wealthy, visited health facilities and exposed to mass media. Unmet need for FP decreased from 23.0-13.8% over the 5-years, p<0.001. Married adolescent 15-19 had the highest unmet need and those from rural areas, poor, uneducated and not exposed to mass media. mDFPS increased significantly from 69.7-79.4% over the 5-years, p<0.001, with increase in long acting reversible contraception/permanent methods from 19.9-37.2% and decrease in short acting methods from 49.9-42.2%. Significant determinants of mDFPS were age, rural/urban residence, education, wealth, health facility visitation, exposure to FP messages via mass media in the last 12 months, year of study and county of residence.ConclusionsResults show a good progress in key FP indicators. However, not all MWRA are being reached and should be reached if Kenya is to achieve the desired universal health coverage as well as Sustainable Development Goals. Targeted home visits by HCW as well increase in mass media coverage could be viable interventions.
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Project description:BACKGROUND:Increased contraceptive use has been associated with a decrease in high parity births, births that occur close together in time, and births to very young or to older women. These types of births are also associated with high risk of under-five mortality. Previous studies have looked at the change in the level of contraception use and the average change in these types of high-risk births. We aim to predict the distribution of births in a specific country when there is a change in the level and method of modern contraception. METHODS:We used data from full birth histories and modern contraceptive use from 207 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys covering 71 countries to describe the distribution of births in each survey based on birth order, preceding birth space, and mother's age at birth. We estimated the ecologic associations between the prevalence and method-mix of modern contraceptives and the proportion of births in each category. Hierarchical modelling was applied to these aggregated cross sectional proportions, so that random effects were estimated for countries with multiple surveys. We use these results to predict the change in type of births associated with scaling up modern contraception in three different scenarios. RESULTS:We observed marked differences between regions, in the absolute rates of contraception, the types of contraceptives in use, and in the distribution of type of birth. Contraceptive method-mix was a significant determinant of proportion of high-risk births, especially for birth spacing, but also for mother's age and parity. Increased use of modern contraceptives is especially predictive of reduced parity and more births with longer preceding space. However, increased contraception alone is not associated with fewer births to women younger than 18 years or a decrease in short-spaced births. CONCLUSIONS:Both the level and the type of contraception are important factors in determining the effects of family planning on changes in distribution of high-risk births. The best predictions for how birth risk changes with increased modern contraception and for different contraception methods allow for more nuanced predictions specific to each country and can aid better planning for the scaling up of modern contraception.
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Project description:The incorporation of microeconomics concepts into studies using self-administration procedures has provided critical insights into the factors that influence consumption of a wide range of food and drug reinforcers. In particular, the fitting of demand curves to consumption data provides a powerful analytic tool for computing objective metrics of behavior that can be compared across a wide range of reward types in both human and animal experiments. The results of these analyses depend crucially on the mathematical form used to fit the data. The most common choice is an exponential form proposed by Hursh and Silberberg, which is widely used and has provided fundamental insights into relationships between cost and consumption, but it also has some disadvantages. In this paper, we first briefly review the use of demand curves to quantify the motivating effects of food and drugs, then we describe the current methodology and highlight some potential issues that arise in its application. To address these issues, we propose a new mathematical framework for the analysis of consumption data, including a new functional form for the demand curve. We show that this proposed form gives good fits to data for a range of different reinforcers and experimental protocols, while allowing for straightforward calculation of key metrics of demand, including preferred consumption level, maximum response, price at maximum response, and price elasticity of demand. We provide software implementing our entire analysis pipeline, including data fits, data visualization, and the calculation of demand metrics.
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Project description:Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is an asymptomatic plasma cell proliferative disorder associated with risk of progression to symptomatic multiple myeloma (MM) or amyloidosis. In comparison to monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS), SMM has a much higher risk of progression to MM. Thanks to advances in our understanding of the risk factors, the subset of patients with ultra-high risk of progression to MM (80%-90% at 2 years) has been identified. The revision of the diagnostic criteria resulted in changes in the management of this cohort of patients. In contrast to the management guidelines for MGUS patients, SMM patients need to be studied more intensively in order to identify biomarkers necessary for accurate risk stratification. In this review, we focus on the risk of progression from SMM to MM, as well as the influence of early treatment on overall survival, time to progression and quality of life.
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Project description:Hemipteroid Insect Assembling the Tree of Life Project
| PRJNA491004 | ENA
Project description:BackgroundContraception is one of the most important health interventions currently available and yet, many women and couples still do not have reliable access to modern contraceptives. The best indicator for monitoring family planning is the proportion of women using contraception among those who need it. This indicator is frequently called demand for family planning satisfied and we argue that it should be called family planning coverage (FPC). This indicator is complex to calculate and requires a considerable number of questions to be included in a household survey.ObjectivesWe propose a model that can predict FPC from a much simpler indicator - contraceptive use prevalence - for situations where it cannot be derived directly.DesignUsing 197 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys from 82 countries, we explored least-squares regression models that could be used to predict FPC. Non-linearity was expected in this situation and we used a fractional polynomial approach to find the best fitting model. We also explored the effect of calendar time and of wealth on the models explored.ResultsGiven the high correlation between the variables involved in FPC, we managed to derive a relatively simple model that depends only on contraceptive use prevalence but explains 95% of the variability of the outcome, with high precision for the estimated regression line. We also show that the relationship between the two variables has not changed with time. A concordance analysis showed agreement between observed and fitted results within a range of ±9 percentage points.ConclusionsWe show that it is possible to obtain fairly good estimates of FPC using only contraceptive prevalence as a predictor, a strategy that is useful in situations where it is not possible to estimate FPC directly.
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