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Predictive modeling of emergency cesarean delivery.

ABSTRACT: To increase discriminatory accuracy (DA) for emergency cesarean sections (ECSs).We prospectively collected data on and studied all 6,157 births occurring in 2014 at four public hospitals located in three different autonomous communities of Spain. To identify risk factors (RFs) for ECS, we used likelihood ratios and logistic regression, fitted a classification tree (CTREE), and analyzed a random forest model (RFM). We used the areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs) to assess their DA.The magnitude of the LR+ for all putative individual RFs and ORs in the logistic regression models was low to moderate. Except for parity, all putative RFs were positively associated with ECS, including hospital fixed-effects and night-shift delivery. The DA of all logistic models ranged from 0.74 to 0.81. The most relevant RFs (pH, induction, and previous C-section) in the CTREEs showed the highest ORs in the logistic models. The DA of the RFM and its most relevant interaction terms was even higher (AUC = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.93-0.95).Putative fetal, maternal, and contextual RFs alone fail to achieve reasonable DA for ECS. It is the combination of these RFs and the interactions between them at each hospital that make it possible to improve the DA for the type of delivery and tailor interventions through prediction to improve the appropriateness of ECS indications.

SUBMITTER: Campillo-Artero C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5779661 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictive modeling of emergency cesarean delivery.

Campillo-Artero Carlos C Serra-Burriel Miquel M Calvo-Pérez Andrés A

PloS one 20180123 1

<h4>Objective</h4>To increase discriminatory accuracy (DA) for emergency cesarean sections (ECSs).<h4>Study design</h4>We prospectively collected data on and studied all 6,157 births occurring in 2014 at four public hospitals located in three different autonomous communities of Spain. To identify risk factors (RFs) for ECS, we used likelihood ratios and logistic regression, fitted a classification tree (CTREE), and analyzed a random forest model (RFM). We used the areas under the receiver-operat ...[more]

PMID: 29360875

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Project description:ImportanceGlobal cesarean delivery (CD) rates have more than doubled over the past 2 decades, with an increasing contribution from elective CDs. Cesarean delivery has been linked to early childhood overweight and obesity, but limited studies have examined elective and emergency CDs separately.ObjectiveTo investigate whether elective or emergency CD was associated with risk of early childhood overweight.Design, setting, and participantsData were drawn from the Growing Up in Singapore Toward Healthy Outcomes (GUSTO) study, an ongoing prospective mother-child birth cohort study. Participants were pregnant women aged 18 years or older with homogeneous parental ethnic background in their first trimester recruited between June 2009 and September 2010 (n = 1237) at 2 major public hospitals in Singapore. Those with type 1 diabetes or undergoing chemotherapy or psychotropic drug treatment were excluded. Data analysis commenced in October 2017.ExposuresDelivery mode obtained from clinical records. Elective and emergency CD examined separately against vaginal delivery as reference.Main outcomes and measuresBody mass index-for-age z scores at age 12 months calculated based on 2006 World Health Organization Child Growth Standards from infant weight and recumbent crown-heel length measurements taken between December 2010 and April 2012. High body mass index status at risk of overweight was defined as a z score of more than 1 SD and less than or equal to 2 SDs. Overweight was defined as a z score of more than 2 SDs.ResultsAmong 727 infants analyzed (51.2% [372] male), 30.5% (222) were born via CD, of which 33.3% (74) were elective. Prevalence of at risk of overweight and overweight at age 12 months was 12.2% (89) and 2.3% (17), respectively. Elective CD was significantly associated with at risk of overweight or overweight at age 12 months after adjusting for maternal ethnicity, age, education, parity, body mass index, antenatal smoking, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, gestational diabetes, and sex-adjusted birth weight-for-gestational age (odds ratio, 2.05; 95% CI, 1.08-3.90; P = .03). The association persisted after further adjustment for intrapartum antibiotics and first 6 months infant feeding, 2 potential mediators of early childhood overweight and obesity (odds ratio, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.05-3.89; P = .04). No significant associations were found for emergency CD. Analysis with multiple imputation for missing covariates yielded similar results.Conclusions and relevanceChoice of delivery mode may influence risk of early childhood overweight. Clinicians are encouraged to discuss potential long-term implications of elective CD on child metabolic outcomes with patients who intend to have children.

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Predictive modeling of emergency cesarean delivery.

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Predictive modeling of emergency cesarean delivery.

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