Dataset Information

Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Score, Nontraditional Risk Markers, and Incident Stroke in a Multiethnic Cohort.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE:Limited data exist on the performance of the revised Framingham Stroke Risk Score (R-FSRS) and the R-FSRS in conjunction with nontraditional risk markers. We compared the R-FSRS, original FSRS, and the Pooled Cohort Equation for stroke prediction and assessed the improvement in discrimination by nontraditional risk markers. METHODS:Six thousand seven hundred twelve of 6814 participants of the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) were included. Cox proportional hazard, area under the curve, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination increment analysis were used to assess and compare each stroke prediction risk score. Stroke was defined as fatal/nonfatal strokes (hemorrhagic or ischemic). RESULTS:After mean follow-up of 10.7 years, 231 of 6712 (3.4%) strokes were adjudicated (2.7% ischemic strokes). Mean stroke risks using the R-FSRS, original FSRS, and Pooled Cohort Equation were 4.7%, 5.9%, and 13.5%. The R-FSRS had the best calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, ?2=6.55; P=0.59). All risk scores were predictive of incident stroke. C statistics of R-FSRS (0.716) was similar to Pooled Cohort Equation (0.716), but significantly higher than the original FSRS (0.653; P=0.01 for comparison with R-FSRS). Adding nontraditional risk markers individually to the R-FSRS did not improve discrimination of the R-FSRS in the area under the curve analysis, but did improve category-less net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination increment for incident stroke. The addition of coronary artery calcium to R-FSRS produced the highest category-less net reclassification improvement (0.36) and integrated discrimination increment (0.0027). Similar results were obtained when ischemic strokes were used as the outcome. CONCLUSIONS:The R-FSRS downgraded stroke risk but had better calibration and discriminative ability for incident stroke compared with the original FSRS. Nontraditional risk markers modestly improved the discriminative ability of the R-FSRS, with coronary artery calcium performing the best.

SUBMITTER: Flueckiger P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5780220 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Score, Nontraditional Risk Markers, and Incident Stroke in a Multiethnic Cohort.

Flueckiger Peter P Longstreth Will W Herrington David D Yeboah Joseph J

Stroke 20180108 2

<h4>Background and purpose</h4>Limited data exist on the performance of the revised Framingham Stroke Risk Score (R-FSRS) and the R-FSRS in conjunction with nontraditional risk markers. We compared the R-FSRS, original FSRS, and the Pooled Cohort Equation for stroke prediction and assessed the improvement in discrimination by nontraditional risk markers.<h4>Methods</h4>Six thousand seven hundred twelve of 6814 participants of the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) were included. Cox pr ...[more]

PMID: 29311270

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Project description:Background and purposeExpert consensus guidelines recommend low-density lipoprotein cholesterol as the primary serum lipid target for recurrent stroke risk reduction. However, mounting evidence suggests that other lipid parameters might be additional therapeutic targets or at least also predict cardiovascular risk. Little is known about the effects of nontraditional lipid variables on recurrent stroke risk.MethodsWe analyzed the Vitamin Intervention for Stroke Prevention study database comprising 3680 recent (<120 days) noncardioembolic stroke patients followed up for 2 years. Independent associations of baseline serum lipid variables with recurrent ischemic stroke (primary outcome) and the composite end point of ischemic stroke/coronary heart disease/vascular death (secondary outcomes) were assessed.ResultsOf all variables evaluated, only triglycerides/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio was consistently and independently related to both outcomes: compared with the lowest quintile, the highest triglycerides/HDL-C ratio quintile was associated with stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.32) and stroke/coronary heart disease/vascular death (1.39; 1.05-1.83), including adjustment for lipid modifier use. Compared with the lowest quintile, the highest total cholesterol/HDL-C ratio quintile was associated with stroke/coronary heart disease/vascular death (1.45; 1.03-2.03). Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol/HDL-C ratio, non-HDL-C, elevated triglycerides alone, and low HDL-C alone were not independently linked to either outcome.ConclusionsOf various nontraditional lipid variables, elevated baseline triglycerides/HDL-C and total cholesterol/HDL-C ratios predict future vascular risk after a stroke, but only elevated triglycerides/HDL-C ratio is related to risk of recurrent stroke. Future studies should assess the role of triglycerides/HDL-C as a potential therapeutic target for global vascular risk reduction after stroke.

Dataset Information

Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Score, Nontraditional Risk Markers, and Incident Stroke in a Multiethnic Cohort.

Publications

Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Score, Nontraditional Risk Markers, and Incident Stroke in a Multiethnic Cohort.

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