Dataset Information

Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context.

Objectives

We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally.

Methods

We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ?90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration ?2, 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave-mortality relation over lags of 0-10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition.

Results

Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave-mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature.

Conclusions

Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1026.

SUBMITTER: Guo Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5783630 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study.

Guo Yuming Y Gasparrini Antonio A Armstrong Ben G BG Tawatsupa Benjawan B Tobias Aurelio A Lavigne Eric E Coelho Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio MSZS Pan Xiaochuan X Kim Ho H Hashizume Masahiro M Honda Yasushi Y Guo Yue-Liang Leon YL Wu Chang-Fu CF Zanobetti Antonella A Schwartz Joel D JD Bell Michelle L ML Scortichini Matteo M Michelozzi Paola P Punnasiri Kornwipa K Li Shanshan S Tian Linwei L Garcia Samuel David Osorio SDO Seposo Xerxes X Overcenco Ala A Zeka Ariana A Goodman Patrick P Dang Tran Ngoc TN Dung Do Van DV Mayvaneh Fatemeh F Saldiva Paulo Hilario Nascimento PHN Williams Gail G Tong Shilu S

Environmental health perspectives 20170810 8

<h4>Background</h4>Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context.<h4>Objectives</h4>We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally.<h4>Methods</h4>We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th pe ...[more]

PMID: 28886602

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Project description:BackgroundRecent investigations have reported a decline in the heat-related mortality risk during the last decades. However, these studies are frequently based on modeling approaches that do not fully characterize the complex temperature-mortality relationship, and are limited to single cities or countries.ObjectivesWe assessed the temporal variation in heat-mortality associations in a multi-country data set using flexible modelling techniques.MethodsWe collected data for 272 locations in Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States, with a total 20,203,690 deaths occurring in summer months between 1985 and 2012. The analysis was based on two-stage time-series models. The temporal variation in heat-mortality relationships was estimated in each location with time-varying distributed lag nonlinear models, expressed through an interaction between the transformed temperature variables and time. The estimates were pooled by country through multivariate meta-analysis.ResultsMortality risk due to heat appeared to decrease over time in several countries, with relative risks associated to high temperatures significantly lower in 2006 compared with 1993 in the United States, Japan, and Spain, and a nonsignificant decrease in Canada. Temporal changes are difficult to assess in Australia and South Korea due to low statistical power, and we found little evidence of variation in the United Kingdom. In the United States, the risk seems to be completely abated in 2006 for summer temperatures below their 99th percentile, but some significant excess persists for higher temperatures in all the countries.ConclusionsWe estimated a statistically significant decrease in the relative risk for heat-related mortality in 2006 compared with 1993 in the majority of countries included in the analysis.CitationGasparrini A, Guo Y, Hashizume M, Kinney PL, Petkova EP, Lavigne E, Zanobetti A, Schwartz JD, Tobias A, Leone M, Tong S, Honda Y, Kim H, Armstrong BG. 2015. Temporal variation in heat-mortality associations: a multicountry study. Environ Health Perspect 123:1200-1207; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409070.

Project description:BackgroundAlthough studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures.MethodsWe collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature-mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles.FindingsWe analysed 74,225,200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43-7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80-90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02-7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39-0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84-0·87) of total mortality.InterpretationMost of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios.FundingUK Medical Research Council.

Dataset Information

Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study.

Background

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study.

Similar Datasets

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