Dataset Information

What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Population ageing represents a global challenge for future end-of-life care. Given new trends in place of death, it is vital to examine where the rising number of deaths will occur in future years and implications for health and social care.

Aim

To project where people will die from 2015 to 2040 across all care settings in England and Wales.

Design

Population-based trend analysis and projections using simple linear modelling. Age- and gender-specific proportions of deaths in hospital, care home, home, hospice and 'other' were applied to numbers of expected future deaths. Setting/population: All deaths (2004-2014) from death registration data and predicted deaths (2015-2040) from official population forecasts in England and Wales.

Results

Annual deaths are projected to increase from 501,424 in 2014 (38.8% aged 85?years and over) to 635,814 in 2040 (53.6% aged 85?years and over). Between 2004 and 2014, proportions of home and care home deaths increased (18.3%-22.9% and 16.7%- 21.2%) while hospital deaths declined (57.9%-48.1%). If current trends continue, numbers of deaths in care homes and homes will increase by 108.1% and 88.6%, with care home the most common place of death by 2040. If care home capacity does not expand and additional deaths occur in hospital, hospital deaths will start rising by 2023.

Conclusion

To sustain current trends, end-of-life care provision in care homes and the community needs to double by 2040. An infrastructure across care settings that supports rising annual deaths is urgently needed; otherwise, hospital deaths will increase.

SUBMITTER: Bone AE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5788077 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death.

Bone Anna E AE Gomes Barbara B Etkind Simon N SN Verne Julia J Murtagh Fliss E M FEM Evans Catherine J CJ Higginson Irene J IJ

Palliative medicine 20171010 2

<h4>Background</h4>Population ageing represents a global challenge for future end-of-life care. Given new trends in place of death, it is vital to examine where the rising number of deaths will occur in future years and implications for health and social care.<h4>Aim</h4>To project where people will die from 2015 to 2040 across all care settings in England and Wales.<h4>Design</h4>Population-based trend analysis and projections using simple linear modelling. Age- and gender-specific proportions ...[more]

PMID: 29017018

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Project description:OBJECTIVE:We describe sources expected to provide for future care needs among baby-boomers in their late sixties and examine how expectations vary according to earlier health and social experiences. We hypothesised that greater integration in social relationships across adulthood is associated with greater expectation of informal care, and that greater morbidity over a longer time period is associated with greater expectation of formal care. METHOD:The MRC National Survey of Health and Development, a population-based birth cohort study set in mainland Britain, provided data on care expectations for 2135 participants aged 68-69. The outcome was who, besides the partner or spouse, is expected to provide for the future care needs, coded as adult children, other relatives, friends/neighbours, paid/professional care, or no one. Adult children were taken as the reference category and the latter two categories were combined as 'formal care' in the multiple regression analysis. RESULTS:91% had an adult child, of whom 74% expected them to provide care if needed, and 11% expected formal care. The latter rose to 33% of those with no adult children. Geographical distance to adult children (over 25 miles) was strongly correlated with expectations but, independently of this, lack of someone to help in a crisis from midlife onwards and low social contact were associated with expecting formal care. Expectations did not differ by number of chronic conditions, functional limitations or longstanding illness from age 60?+?. CONCLUSION:Those lacking social relationships in midlife onwards and those living further from adult children are more likely to expect formal help with their future care needs. As personal care needs are projected to rise with population ageing and families are increasingly expected to provide for these needs, initiatives to remove barriers to smaller distances between ageing parents and their children and to support and maintain high-quality family relationships across the life course should be considered.

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Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding whether the type of primary caregiver and end-of-life (EOL) care location are associated with EOL medical expenditures is crucial to inform global debates on policies for efficient and effective EOL care. This study aims to assess trends in the type of primary caregiver and place of death stratified by rural‒urban status among the oldest-old population from 1998-2018 in China. A secondary objective is to determine the associations between rurality, the type of primary caregiver, place of death and EOL medical expenditures. METHODS: A total of 20,149 deaths of people aged 80 years or older were derived from the Chinese Longitudinal Health Longevity Survey (CLHLS). Cochran-Armitage tests and Cuzick's tests were used to test trends in the type of primary caregiver and place of death over time, respectively. Tobit models were used to estimate the marginal associations of rurality, type of primary caregiver, and place of death with EOL medical expenditures because CLHLS sets 100,000 Chinese yuan (approximately US$15,286) as the upper limit of the outcome variable. RESULTS: Of the 20,149 oldest-old people, the median age at death was 97 years old, 12,490 (weighted, 58.6%, hereafter) were female, and 8,235 lived in urban areas. From 1998-2018, the prevalence of informal caregivers significantly increased from 94.3% to 96.2%, and home death significantly increased from 86.0% to 89.5%. The proportion of people receiving help from informal caregivers significantly increased in urban decedents (16.5%) but decreased in rural decedents (-4.0%), while home death rates significantly increased among both urban (15.3%) and rural (1.8%) decedents. In the adjusted models, rural decedents spent less than urban decedents did (marginal difference [95% CI]: $-229 [$-378, $-80]). Those who died in hospitals spent more than those who died at home ($798 [$518, $1077]). No difference in medical expenditures by type of primary caregiver was observed.ConclusionsOver the past two decades, the increases in informal caregiver utilization and home deaths were unequal, leading to substantially higher EOL medical expenditures among urban decedents and deceased individuals who died at hospitals than among their counterparts who lived in rural areas and died at home.

Project description:BackgroundEmerging trends and new policies suggest that more cancer patients might die at home in the future. However, not all have equal chances of achieving this. Furthermore, there is lack of evidence to support that those who die at home experience better care and a better death than those who die as inpatients. The QUALYCARE study aims to examine variations in the quality and costs of end-of-life care, preferences and palliative outcomes associated with dying at home or in an institution for cancer patients.Methods/designMortality followback survey (with a nested case-control study of home vs. hospital deaths) conducted with bereaved relatives of cancer patients in four Primary Care Trusts in London. Potential participants are identified from death registrations and approached by the Office for National Statistics in complete confidence. Data are collected via a postal questionnaire to identify the informal and formal care received in the three months before death and the associated costs, relatives' satisfaction with care, and palliative outcomes for the patients and their relatives. A well-established questionnaire to measure relatives' views on the care integrates four brief and robust tools - the Client Service Receipt Inventory, the Palliative Outcome Scale, the EQ-5 D and the Texas Revised Inventory of Grief. Further questions assess patients and relatives' preferences for place of death. The survey aims to include 500 bereaved relatives (140 who experienced a home death, 205 a hospital death, 115 a hospice death and 40 a nursing home death). Bivariate and multivariate analyses will explore differences in place of death and place of end-of-life care, in preferences for place of death, patients' palliative outcomes and relatives' bereavement outcomes, in relation to place of death. Factors influencing death at home and the costs of end-of-life care by place of death will be identified.DiscussionCollecting data on end-of-life care retrospectively from bereaved relatives has ethical, practical and scientific challenges. QUALYCARE has been carefully designed to address these challenges in a robust and ethically sound population-based survey. By discovering variations in the underlying individual reality of place of death for people dying from cancer and their families, this study will advance our understanding of end-of-life care and, we hope, improve care for cancer patients and their families in the future.Trial registrationNational Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network Portfolio. UKCRN7041.

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Dataset Information

What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death.

Background

Aim

Design

Results

Conclusion

Publications

What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death.

Similar Datasets

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