Dataset Information

What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Population ageing represents a global challenge for future end-of-life care. Given new trends in place of death, it is vital to examine where the rising number of deaths will occur in future years and implications for health and social care.

Aim

To project where people will die from 2015 to 2040 across all care settings in England and Wales.

Design

Population-based trend analysis and projections using simple linear modelling. Age- and gender-specific proportions of deaths in hospital, care home, home, hospice and 'other' were applied to numbers of expected future deaths. Setting/population: All deaths (2004-2014) from death registration data and predicted deaths (2015-2040) from official population forecasts in England and Wales.

Results

Annual deaths are projected to increase from 501,424 in 2014 (38.8% aged 85?years and over) to 635,814 in 2040 (53.6% aged 85?years and over). Between 2004 and 2014, proportions of home and care home deaths increased (18.3%-22.9% and 16.7%- 21.2%) while hospital deaths declined (57.9%-48.1%). If current trends continue, numbers of deaths in care homes and homes will increase by 108.1% and 88.6%, with care home the most common place of death by 2040. If care home capacity does not expand and additional deaths occur in hospital, hospital deaths will start rising by 2023.

Conclusion

To sustain current trends, end-of-life care provision in care homes and the community needs to double by 2040. An infrastructure across care settings that supports rising annual deaths is urgently needed; otherwise, hospital deaths will increase.

SUBMITTER: Bone AE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5788077 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death.

Bone Anna E AE Gomes Barbara B Etkind Simon N SN Verne Julia J Murtagh Fliss E M FEM Evans Catherine J CJ Higginson Irene J IJ

Palliative medicine 20171010 2

<h4>Background</h4>Population ageing represents a global challenge for future end-of-life care. Given new trends in place of death, it is vital to examine where the rising number of deaths will occur in future years and implications for health and social care.<h4>Aim</h4>To project where people will die from 2015 to 2040 across all care settings in England and Wales.<h4>Design</h4>Population-based trend analysis and projections using simple linear modelling. Age- and gender-specific proportions ...[more]

PMID: 29017018

Similar Datasets

Project description:ObjectivesTo determine whether the receipt of chemotherapy among terminally ill cancer patients months before death was associated with patients' subsequent intensive medical care and place of death.DesignSecondary analysis of a prospective, multi-institution, longitudinal study of patients with advanced cancer.SettingEight outpatient oncology clinics in the United States.Participants386 adult patients with metastatic cancers refractory to at least one chemotherapy regimen, whom physicians identified as terminally ill at study enrollment and who subsequently died.Main outcome measuresPrimary outcomesintensive medical care (cardiopulmonary resuscitation, mechanical ventilation, or both) in the last week of life and patients' place of death (for example, intensive care unit).Secondary outcomessurvival, late hospice referrals (≤ 1 week before death), and dying in preferred place of death.Results216 (56%) of 386 terminally ill cancer patients were receiving palliative chemotherapy at study enrollment, a median of 4.0 months before death. After propensity score weighted adjustment, use of chemotherapy at enrollment was associated with higher rates of cardiopulmonary resuscitation, mechanical ventilation, or both in the last week of life (14% v 2%; adjusted risk difference 10.5%, 95% confidence interval 5.0% to 15.5%) and late hospice referrals (54% v 37%; 13.6%, 3.6% to 23.6%) but no difference in survival (hazard ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 0.90 to 1.38). Patients receiving palliative chemotherapy were more likely to die in an intensive care unit (11% v 2%; adjusted risk difference 6.1%, 1.1% to 11.1%) and less likely to die at home (47% v 66%; -10.8%, -1.0% to -20.6%), compared with those who were not. Patients receiving palliative chemotherapy were also less likely to die in their preferred place, compared with those who were not (65% v 80%; adjusted risk difference -9.4%, -0.8% to -18.1%).ConclusionsThe use of chemotherapy in terminally ill cancer patients in the last months of life was associated with an increased risk of undergoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation, mechanical ventilation or both and of dying in an intensive care unit. Future research should determine the mechanisms by which palliative chemotherapy affects end of life outcomes and patients' attainment of their goals.

Project description:BackgroundWe aimed to address the paucity of information describing the treatable burden of disease associated with severe aortic stenosis (AS) within Australia's ageing population.MethodsA contemporary model of the population prevalence of symptomatic, severe AS and treatment pathways in Europe and North America was applied to the 2019 Australian population aged ≥ 55 years (7 million people) on an age-specific basis. Applying Australian-specific data, these estimates were used to further calculate the total number of associated deaths and incident cases of severe AS per annum.ResultsBased on an overall point prevalence of 1.48 % among those aged ≥ 55 years, we estimate that a minimum of 97,000 Australians are living with severe AS. With a 2-fold increased risk of mortality without undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR), more than half of these individuals (∼56,000) will die within 5-years. From a clinical management perspective, among those with concurrent symptoms (68.3 %, 66,500 [95 % CI 59,000-74,000] cases) more than half (58.4 %, 38,800 [95 % CI 35,700 - 42,000] cases) would be potentially considered for surgical AVR (SAVR) - comprising 2,400, 5,400 and 31,000 cases assessed as high-, medium- or low peri-operative mortality risk, respectively. A further 17,000/27,700 (41.6 % [95 % CI 11,600 - 22,600]) of such individuals would be potentially considered to a transthoracic AVR (TAVR). During the subsequent 5-year period (2020-2024), each year, we estimate an additional 9,300 Australians aged ≥ 60 years will subsequently develop severe AS (6,300 of whom will experience concurrent symptoms). Of these symptomatic cases, an estimated 3,700 and 1,600 cases/annum, will be potentially suitable for SAVR and TAVR, respectively.ConclusionsThese data suggest there is likely to be a substantive burden of individuals living with severe AS in Australia. Many of these cases may not have been diagnosed and/or received appropriate treatment (based on the evidence-based application of SAVR and TAVR) to reduce their high-risk of subsequent mortality.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:We describe sources expected to provide for future care needs among baby-boomers in their late sixties and examine how expectations vary according to earlier health and social experiences. We hypothesised that greater integration in social relationships across adulthood is associated with greater expectation of informal care, and that greater morbidity over a longer time period is associated with greater expectation of formal care. METHOD:The MRC National Survey of Health and Development, a population-based birth cohort study set in mainland Britain, provided data on care expectations for 2135 participants aged 68-69. The outcome was who, besides the partner or spouse, is expected to provide for the future care needs, coded as adult children, other relatives, friends/neighbours, paid/professional care, or no one. Adult children were taken as the reference category and the latter two categories were combined as 'formal care' in the multiple regression analysis. RESULTS:91% had an adult child, of whom 74% expected them to provide care if needed, and 11% expected formal care. The latter rose to 33% of those with no adult children. Geographical distance to adult children (over 25 miles) was strongly correlated with expectations but, independently of this, lack of someone to help in a crisis from midlife onwards and low social contact were associated with expecting formal care. Expectations did not differ by number of chronic conditions, functional limitations or longstanding illness from age 60?+?. CONCLUSION:Those lacking social relationships in midlife onwards and those living further from adult children are more likely to expect formal help with their future care needs. As personal care needs are projected to rise with population ageing and families are increasingly expected to provide for these needs, initiatives to remove barriers to smaller distances between ageing parents and their children and to support and maintain high-quality family relationships across the life course should be considered.

Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding whether the type of primary caregiver and end-of-life (EOL) care location are associated with EOL medical expenditures is crucial to inform global debates on policies for efficient and effective EOL care. This study aims to assess trends in the type of primary caregiver and place of death stratified by rural‒urban status among the oldest-old population from 1998-2018 in China. A secondary objective is to determine the associations between rurality, the type of primary caregiver, place of death and EOL medical expenditures. METHODS: A total of 20,149 deaths of people aged 80 years or older were derived from the Chinese Longitudinal Health Longevity Survey (CLHLS). Cochran-Armitage tests and Cuzick's tests were used to test trends in the type of primary caregiver and place of death over time, respectively. Tobit models were used to estimate the marginal associations of rurality, type of primary caregiver, and place of death with EOL medical expenditures because CLHLS sets 100,000 Chinese yuan (approximately US$15,286) as the upper limit of the outcome variable. RESULTS: Of the 20,149 oldest-old people, the median age at death was 97 years old, 12,490 (weighted, 58.6%, hereafter) were female, and 8,235 lived in urban areas. From 1998-2018, the prevalence of informal caregivers significantly increased from 94.3% to 96.2%, and home death significantly increased from 86.0% to 89.5%. The proportion of people receiving help from informal caregivers significantly increased in urban decedents (16.5%) but decreased in rural decedents (-4.0%), while home death rates significantly increased among both urban (15.3%) and rural (1.8%) decedents. In the adjusted models, rural decedents spent less than urban decedents did (marginal difference [95% CI]: $-229 [$-378, $-80]). Those who died in hospitals spent more than those who died at home ($798 [$518, $1077]). No difference in medical expenditures by type of primary caregiver was observed.ConclusionsOver the past two decades, the increases in informal caregiver utilization and home deaths were unequal, leading to substantially higher EOL medical expenditures among urban decedents and deceased individuals who died at hospitals than among their counterparts who lived in rural areas and died at home.

Dataset Information

What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death.

Background

Aim

Design

Results

Conclusion

Publications

What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets