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Machine Learning for Fetal Growth Prediction.

ABSTRACT: Birthweight is often used as a proxy for fetal weight. Problems with this practice have recently been brought to light. We explore whether data available at birth can be used to predict estimated fetal weight using linear and quantile regression, random forests, Bayesian additive regression trees, and generalized boosted models. We train and validate each approach using 18,517 pregnancies (31,948 ultrasound visits) from the Magee-Womens Obstetric Maternal and Infant data and 240 pregnancies in a separate dataset of high-risk pregnancies. We also quantify the relation between smoking and small-for-gestational-age birth, defined as a birthweight in the lower 10th percentile of a population birthweight standard and estimated and predicted fetal weight standard. Using mean squared error and median absolute deviation criteria, quantile regression performed best among the regression-based approaches, but generalized boosted models performed best overall. Using the birthweight standard, smoking during pregnancy increased the risk of small-for-gestational-age 3.84-fold (95% CI: 2.70, 5.47). This ratio dropped to 1.65 (95% CI: 1.50, 1.81) when using the correct fetal weight standard, which was no different from the machine learning-based predicted standards, but higher than the regression-based predicted standards. Machine learning algorithms show promise in recovering missing fetal weight information. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B314.

SUBMITTER: Naimi AI

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5792310 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Machine Learning for Fetal Growth Prediction.

Naimi Ashley I AI Platt Robert W RW Larkin Jacob C JC

Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) 20180301 2

Birthweight is often used as a proxy for fetal weight. Problems with this practice have recently been brought to light. We explore whether data available at birth can be used to predict estimated fetal weight using linear and quantile regression, random forests, Bayesian additive regression trees, and generalized boosted models. We train and validate each approach using 18,517 pregnancies (31,948 ultrasound visits) from the Magee-Womens Obstetric Maternal and Infant data and 240 pregnancies in a ...[more]

PMID: 29199998

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Project description:IntroductionCardiotocography (CTG) consists of two biophysical signals that are fetal heart rate (FHR) and uterine contraction (UC). In this research area, the computerized systems are usually utilized to provide more objective and repeatable results.Materials and methodsFeature selection algorithms are of great importance regarding the computerized systems to not only reduce the dimension of feature set but also to reveal the most relevant features without losing too much information. In this paper, three filters and two wrappers feature selection methods and machine learning models, which are artificial neural network (ANN), k-nearest neighbor (kNN), decision tree (DT), and support vector machine (SVM), are evaluated on a high dimensional feature set obtained from an open-access CTU-UHB intrapartum CTG database. The signals are divided into two classes as normal and hypoxic considering umbilical artery pH value (pH?<?7.20) measured after delivery. A comprehensive diagnostic feature set forming the features obtained from morphological, linear, nonlinear, time-frequency and image-based time-frequency domains is generated first. Then, combinations of the feature selection algorithms and machine learning models are evaluated to achieve the most effective features as well as high classification performance.ResultsThe experimental results show that it is possible to achieve better classification performance using lower dimensional feature set that comprises of more related features, instead of the high-dimensional feature set. The most informative feature subset was generated by considering the frequency of selection of the features by feature selection algorithms. As a result, the most efficient results were produced by selected only 12 relevant features instead of a full feature set consisting of 30 diagnostic indices and SVM model. Sensitivity and specificity were achieved as 77.40% and 93.86%, respectively.ConclusionConsequently, the evaluation of multiple feature selection algorithms resulted in achieving the best results.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Prognostication is an essential tool for risk adjustment and decision making in the intensive care unit (ICU). Research into prognostication in ICU has so far been limited to data from admission or the first 24 hours. Most ICU admissions last longer than this, decisions are made throughout an admission, and some admissions are explicitly intended as time-limited prognostic trials. Despite this, temporal changes in prognostic ability during ICU admission has received little attention to date. Current predictive models, in the form of prognostic clinical tools, are typically derived from linear models and do not explicitly handle incremental information from trends. Machine learning (ML) allows predictive models to be developed which use non-linear predictors and complex interactions between variables, thus allowing incorporation of trends in measured variables over time; this has made it possible to investigate prognosis throughout an admission. METHODS AND FINDINGS:This study uses ML to assess the predictability of ICU mortality as a function of time. Logistic regression against physiological data alone outperformed APACHE-II and demonstrated several important interactions including between lactate & noradrenaline dose, between lactate & MAP, and between age & MAP consistent with the current sepsis definitions. ML models consistently outperformed logistic regression with Deep Learning giving the best results. Predictive power was maximal on the second day and was further improved by incorporating trend data. Using a limited range of physiological and demographic variables, the best machine learning model on the first day showed an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.883 (σ = 0.008), compared to 0.846 (σ = 0.010) for a logistic regression from the same predictors and 0.836 (σ = 0.007) for a logistic regression based on the APACHE-II score. Adding information gathered on the second day of admission improved the maximum AUC to 0.895 (σ = 0.008). Beyond the second day, predictive ability declined. CONCLUSION:This has implications for decision making in intensive care and provides a justification for time-limited trials of ICU therapy; the assessment of prognosis over more than one day may be a valuable strategy as new information on the second day helps to differentiate outcomes. New ML models based on trend data beyond the first day could greatly improve upon current risk stratification tools.

Project description:Background:In developing countries, maternal undernutrition is the major intrauterine environmental factor contributing to fetal development and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Maternal nutrition restriction (MNR) in gestation has proven to impact overall growth, bone development, and proliferation and metabolism of mesenchymal stem cells in offspring. However, the efficient method for elucidation of fetal bone development performance through maternal bone metabolic biochemical markers remains elusive. Methods:We adapted goats to elucidate fetal bone development state with maternal serum bone metabolic proteins under malnutrition conditions in mid- and late-gestation stages. We used the experimental data to create 72 datasets by mixing different input features such as one-hot encoding of experimental conditions, metabolic original data, experimental-centered features and experimental condition probabilities. Seven Machine Learning methods have been used to predict six fetal bone parameters (weight, length, and diameter of femur/humerus). Results:The results indicated that MNR influences fetal bone development (femur and humerus) and fetal bone metabolic protein levels (C-terminal telopeptides of collagen I, CTx, in middle-gestation and N-terminal telopeptides of collagen I, NTx, in late-gestation), and maternal bone metabolites (low bone alkaline phosphatase, BALP, in middle-gestation and high BALP in late-gestation). The results show the importance of experimental conditions (ECs) encoding by mixing the information with the serum metabolic data. The best classification models obtained for femur weight (Fw) and length (FI), and humerus weight (Hw) are Support Vector Machines classifiers with the leave-one-out cross-validation accuracy of 1. The rest of the accuracies are 0.98, 0.946 and 0.696 for the diameter of femur (Fd), diameter and length of humerus (Hd, Hl), respectively. With the feature importance analysis, the moving averages mixed ECs are generally more important for the majority of the models. The moving average of parathyroid hormone (PTH) within nutritional conditions (MA-PTH-experim) is important for Fd, Hd and Hl prediction models but its removal for enhancing the Fw, Fl and Hw model performance. Further, using one feature models, it is possible to obtain even more accurate models compared with the feature importance analysis models. In conclusion, the machine learning is an efficient method to confirm the important role of PTH and BALP mixed with nutritional conditions for fetal bone growth performance of goats. All the Python scripts including results and comments are available into an open repository at https://gitlab.com/muntisa/goat-bones-machine-learning.

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Machine Learning for Fetal Growth Prediction.

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Machine Learning for Fetal Growth Prediction.

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