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Analytic method for evaluating players' decisions in team sports: Applications to the soccer goalkeeper.

ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to define a method for evaluating a player's decisions during a game based on the success probability of his actions and for analyzing the player strategy inferred from game actions. There were developed formal definitions of i) the stochastic process of player decisions in game situations and ii) the inference process of player strategy based on his game decisions. The method was applied to the context of soccer goalkeepers. A model of goalkeeper positioning, with geometric parameters and solutions to optimize his position based on the ball position and trajectory, was developed. The model was tested with a sample of 65 professional goalkeepers (28.8 ± 4.1 years old) playing for their national teams in 2010 and 2014 World Cups. The goalkeeper's decisions were compared to decisions from a large dataset of other goalkeepers, defining the probability of success in each game circumstance. There were assessed i) performance in a defined set of classes of game plays; ii) entropy of goalkeepers' decisions; and iii) the effect of goalkeepers' positioning updates on the outcome (save or goal). Goalkeepers' decisions were similar to the ones with the lowest probability of goal on the dataset. Goalkeepers' entropy varied between 24% and 71% of the maximum possible entropy. Positioning dynamics in the instants that preceded the shot indicated that, in goals and saves, goalkeepers optimized their position before the shot in 21.87% and 83.33% of the situations, respectively. These results validate a method to discriminate successful performance. In conclusion, this method enables a more precise assessment of a player's decision-making ability by consulting a representative dataset of equivalent actions to define the probability of his success. Therefore, it supports the evaluation of the player's decision separately from his technical skill execution, which overcomes the scientific challenge of discriminating the evaluation of a player's decision performance from the action result.

SUBMITTER: Lamas L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5800537 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Analytic method for evaluating players' decisions in team sports: Applications to the soccer goalkeeper.

Lamas Leonardo L Drezner Rene R Otranto Guilherme G Barrera Junior J

PloS one 20180206 2

The aim of this study was to define a method for evaluating a player's decisions during a game based on the success probability of his actions and for analyzing the player strategy inferred from game actions. There were developed formal definitions of i) the stochastic process of player decisions in game situations and ii) the inference process of player strategy based on his game decisions. The method was applied to the context of soccer goalkeepers. A model of goalkeeper positioning, with geom ...[more]

PMID: 29408923

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Project description:This study presented a method of quantifying the manoeuvrability of two field-based team sport athletes and investigated its relationship with running velocity during competition. Across a season, 10 Hz Global navigation satellite system (GNSS) devices were worn during matches by 62 athletes (Australian Football League [AFL]; n = 36, 17 matches, National Rugby League [NRL]; n = 26, 21 matches). To quantify manoeuvrability, tortuosity was calculated from the X and Y coordinates from match GNSS files (converted from latitude and longitude). Tortuosity was calculated as 100 x natural logarithm of the chord distance (distance travelled between X and Y coordinates), divided by the straight-line distance. The maximal tortuosity was then quantified for each 0.5 m∙s-1 speed increment, ranging from 0 to the highest value for each game file. A quadratic model was fitted for each match file, controlling for the curvilinear relationship between tortuosity and velocity. A comparison of the quadratic coefficients between sports, and within sport between positions was investigated using linear mixed models. Resulting standard deviations (SDs) and mean differences were then assessed to establish standardized effect sizes (ES) and 90% confidence intervals (CI). A curvilinear relationship exists between maximal tortuosity and running speed, reflecting that as speed increases, athletes' ability to deviate from a linear path is compromised (i.e., run in a more linear path). Compared to AFL, NRL had a greater negative quadratic coefficient (a) (ES = 0.70; 0.47 to 0.93) for the 5 second analysis, meaning that as speed increased, NRL athletes' manoeuvrability reduced at a faster rate than when compared to AFL. There were no positional differences within each sport. GNSS derived information can be used to provide a measure of manoeuvrability tortuosity during NRL and AFL matches. The curvilinear relationship between tortuosity and speed demonstrated that as speed increased, manoeuvrability was compromised.

Dataset Information

Analytic method for evaluating players' decisions in team sports: Applications to the soccer goalkeeper.

Publications

Analytic method for evaluating players' decisions in team sports: Applications to the soccer goalkeeper.

Similar Datasets

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