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Survival analysis with functions of mismeasured covariate histories: the case of chronic air pollution exposure in relation to mortality in the nurses' health study.

ABSTRACT: Environmental epidemiologists are often interested in estimating the effect of functions of time-varying exposure histories, such as the 12-month moving average, in relation to chronic disease incidence or mortality. The individual exposure measurements that comprise such an exposure history are usually mis-measured, at least moderately, and, often, more substantially. To obtain unbiased estimates of Cox model hazard ratios for these complex mis-measured exposure functions, an extended risk set regression calibration method for Cox models is developed and applied to a study of long-term exposure to the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) component of air pollution in relation to all-cause mortality in the Nurses' Health Study. Simulation studies under several realistic assumptions about the measurement error model and about the correlation structure of the repeated exposure measurements were conducted to assess the finite sample properties of this new method, and found that the method has good performance in terms of finite sample bias reduction and nominal confidence interval coverage.

SUBMITTER: Liao X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5801717 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Survival analysis with functions of mismeasured covariate histories: the case of chronic air pollution exposure in relation to mortality in the nurses' health study.

Liao Xiaomei X Zhou Xin X Wang Molin M Hart Jaime E JE Laden Francine F Spiegelman Donna D

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics 20170615 2

Environmental epidemiologists are often interested in estimating the effect of functions of time-varying exposure histories, such as the 12-month moving average, in relation to chronic disease incidence or mortality. The individual exposure measurements that comprise such an exposure history are usually mis-measured, at least moderately, and, often, more substantially. To obtain unbiased estimates of Cox model hazard ratios for these complex mis-measured exposure functions, an extended risk set ...[more]

PMID: 29430064

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Project description:Study questionIs there an association between air pollution exposures and the risk of spontaneous abortion (SAB)?Summary answerHigher exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution above and beyond a woman's average exposure may be associated with greater risk of SAB, particularly among women experiencing at least one SAB during follow-up.What is known alreadyThere is sufficient biologic plausibility to suggest that air pollution adversely affects early pregnancy outcomes, particularly pregnancy loss; however, the evidence is limited.Study design, size, durationOur prospective cohort study included 19 309 women in the Nurses' Health Study II who contributed a total of 35 025 pregnancies between 1990 and 2008. We also conducted a case-crossover analysis among 3585 women (11 212 pregnancies) with at least one SAB and one live birth during follow-up.Participants/materials, setting, methodsProximity to major roadways and exposure to PM <10 microns (PM10), 2.5-10 microns (PM2.5-10) and <2.5 microns (PM2.5) were determined for residential addresses between 1989 and 2007. Pregnancy outcomes were self-reported biannually throughout follow-up and comprehensively in 2009. Multivariable log-binomial regression models with generalized estimating equations were used to estimate the risk ratios and 95% CIs of SAB. Conditional logistic regression was used for the case-crossover analysis.Main results and the role of chanceDuring the 19 years of follow-up, 6599 SABs (18.8% of pregnancies) were reported. In the main analysis, living closer to a major roadway and average exposure to PM10, PM10-2.5 or PM2.5 in the 1 or 2 years prior to pregnancy were not associated with an increased risk of SAB. However, small positive associations between PM exposures and SAB were observed when restricting the analysis to women experiencing at least one SAB during follow-up. In the case-crossover analysis, an increase in PM10 (per 3.9 μg/m3), PM2.5-10 (per 2.3 μg/m3) and PM2.5 (per 2.0 μg/m3) in the year prior to pregnancy was associated with 1.12 (95% CI 1.06, 1.19), 1.09 (95% CI 1.03, 1.14) and 1.10 (95% CI 1.04, 1.17) higher odds of SAB, respectively.Limitations, reasons for cautionWe did not have information on the month or day of SAB, which precluded our ability to examine specific windows of susceptibility or acute exposures. We also used ambient air pollution exposures as a proxy for personal exposure, potentially leading to exposure misclassification.Wider implications of the findingsIn our case-crossover analysis (but not in the entire cohort) we observed positive associations between exposure to all size fractions of PM exposure and risk of SAB. This may suggest that changes in PM exposure confer greater risk of SAB or that women with a history of SAB are a particularly vulnerable subgroup.Study funding/competing interest(s)The authors are supported by the following NIH grants UM1CA176726, R00ES026648 and P30ES000002. The authors have no actual or potential competing financial interests to disclose.

Project description:BackgroundAir pollution is one of the world's leading mortality risk factors contributing to seven million deaths annually. COVID-19 pandemic has claimed about one million deaths in less than a year. However, it is unclear whether exposure to acute and chronic air pollution influences the COVID-19 epidemiologic curve.MethodsWe searched for relevant studies listed in six electronic databases between December 2019 and September 2020. We applied no language or publication status limits. Studies presented as original articles, studies that assessed risk, incidence, prevalence, or lethality of COVID-19 in relation with exposure to either short-term or long-term exposure to ambient air pollution were included. All patients regardless of age, sex and location diagnosed as having COVID-19 of any severity were taken into consideration. We synthesised results using harvest plots based on effect direction.ResultsIncluded studies were cross-sectional (n = 10), retrospective cohorts (n = 9), ecological (n = 6 of which two were time-series) and hypothesis (n = 1). Of these studies, 52 and 48% assessed the effect of short-term and long-term pollutant exposure, respectively and one evaluated both. Pollutants mostly studied were PM2.5 (64%), NO2 (50%), PM10 (43%) and O3 (29%) for acute effects and PM2.5 (85%), NO2 (39%) and O3 (23%) then PM10 (15%) for chronic effects. Most assessed COVID-19 outcomes were incidence and mortality rate. Acutely, pollutants independently associated with COVID-19 incidence and mortality were first PM2.5 then PM10, NO2 and O3 (only for incident cases). Chronically, similar relationships were found for PM2.5 and NO2. High overall risk of bias judgments (86 and 39% in short-term and long-term exposure studies, respectively) was predominantly due to a failure to adjust aggregated data for important confounders, and to a lesser extent because of a lack of comparative analysis.ConclusionThe body of evidence indicates that both acute and chronic exposure to air pollution can affect COVID-19 epidemiology. The evidence is unclear for acute exposure due to a higher level of bias in existing studies as compared to moderate evidence with chronic exposure. Public health interventions that help minimize anthropogenic pollutant source and socio-economic injustice/disparities may reduce the planetary threat posed by both COVID-19 and air pollution pandemics.

Project description:Zinc (Zn) is a major elemental component of respirable ambient particulate matter (PM) detected often at alarming levels in urban air. Exposure to PM has been widely associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, however, it is not known what components or sources of PM are causative. We recently demonstrated that long-term episodic inhalation of combustion PM, having similar amount of Zn found in urban PM, caused myocardial lesions in rats. We further demonstrated that a single pulmonary exposure to Zn at high concentration is associated with disturbances in cardiac mitochondrial function, ion channel regulation, calcium homeostasis, and cell signaling. Therefore, in this study we investigated the role of PM-associated Zn in cardiac injury using multiple exposure scenarios. Male Wistar-Kyoto (WKY) rats of 12-14 wks age were intratracheally exposed (once per wk x 8 or16 wks) to either (1) saline (control); (2) PM having no soluble Zn; (3) combustion PM suspension containing 14.5 ug/mg water-soluble Zn at high and (4) low dose levels, (5) the aqueous fraction of this suspension devoid of solid insoluble particulate fraction (14.5 ug/mg soluble Zn), or (6) Zn sulfate. Zn concentrations were identical in groups 3, 5 and 6. Pulmonary toxicity was apparent in all exposure groups when compared to saline as determined by recovery of cells in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid. Long-term exposure to PM with or without soluble Zn, or Zn sulfate caused distinct myocardial lesions characterized by subepicardial and randomly distributed myocardial inflammation, degeneration, and fibrosis. The lesion severity was higher in those groups receiving Zn PM. Because cardiac mitochondria are likely the primary target of inhaled metal or other absorbed PM components, we analyzed mitochondrial DNA damage using QPCR and found that all exposure groups except those exposed to PM without Zn caused variable degree of damage. Aconitase activity, sensitive to inhibition by oxidative stress was inhibited slightly but significantly in rats receiving zinc sulfate. Although modest, microarray (Affymetrix) analysis revealed expression changes in the heart reflective of effects on cell signaling, inflammation/oxidative stress, mitochondrial fatty acid metabolisms and cell cycle regulation in rats exposed to zinc sulfate. However, these changes were minimal following exposure to PM devoid of soluble metals. We demonstrate that episodic subchronic pulmonary exposure to zinc sulfate causes cardiac injury and mitochondrial DNA damage. Thus, water-soluble PM-associated zinc may be one of the PM components responsible for cardiovascular morbidity. Experiment Overall Design: Group 1 received Saline to serve as a control. Group 2 received Mount St. Helenâs ash, which does not contain any water-soluble zinc or other metals such that we can delineate any cardiac effect secondary to pulmonary deposition of these particles as these fine mode particles themselves are not likely to translocate to the heart. Group 3 received whole saline suspension of the same fugitive oil combustion particle sample used in the previous study, which contained insoluble components plus water-soluble zinc (Kodavanti et al., 2003; 14.5 ug/mg zinc) and also a small amount of water-soluble nickel (3.0 Âµg/mg). Elemental composition of this PM is comparable to Ottawa urban PM (Kodavanti et al., 2003). Group 4 also received same particle sample but at half the dose than group 3. Group 5 received saline-soluble or leachable fraction of PM-HD devoid of any solid material but contained soluble components including zinc and nickel. And, group 6 received zinc sulfate at concentration that was present in groups 3 or 5. This design allowed us to test if cardiac injury in rats was due to leached of zinc or solid particles. There were 4 replicates per treatment group.

Project description:The US Environmental Protection Agency is required to reexamine its National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) every 5 years, but evidence of mortality risk is lacking at air pollution levels below the current daily NAAQS in unmonitored areas and for sensitive subgroups.To estimate the association between short-term exposures to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone, and at levels below the current daily NAAQS, and mortality in the continental United States.Case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression to estimate the association between short-term exposures to PM2.5 and ozone (mean of daily exposure on the same day of death and 1 day prior) and mortality in 2-pollutant models. The study included the entire Medicare population from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2012, residing in 39?182 zip codes.Daily PM2.5 and ozone levels in a 1-km × 1-km grid were estimated using published and validated air pollution prediction models based on land use, chemical transport modeling, and satellite remote sensing data. From these gridded exposures, daily exposures were calculated for every zip code in the United States. Warm-season ozone was defined as ozone levels for the months April to September of each year.All-cause mortality in the entire Medicare population from 2000 to 2012.During the study period, there were 22?433?862 million case days and 76?143?209 control days. Of all case and control days, 93.6% had PM2.5 levels below 25 ?g/m3, during which 95.2% of deaths occurred (21?353?817 of 22?433?862), and 91.1% of days had ozone levels below 60 parts per billion, during which 93.4% of deaths occurred (20?955?387 of 22?433?862). The baseline daily mortality rates were 137.33 and 129.44 (per 1 million persons at risk per day) for the entire year and for the warm season, respectively. Each short-term increase of 10 ?g/m3 in PM2.5 (adjusted by ozone) and 10 parts per billion (10-9) in warm-season ozone (adjusted by PM2.5) were statistically significantly associated with a relative increase of 1.05% (95% CI, 0.95%-1.15%) and 0.51% (95% CI, 0.41%-0.61%) in daily mortality rate, respectively. Absolute risk differences in daily mortality rate were 1.42 (95% CI, 1.29-1.56) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.53-0.78) per 1 million persons at risk per day. There was no evidence of a threshold in the exposure-response relationship.In the US Medicare population from 2000 to 2012, short-term exposures to PM2.5 and warm-season ozone were significantly associated with increased risk of mortality. This risk occurred at levels below current national air quality standards, suggesting that these standards may need to be reevaluated.

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Dataset Information

Survival analysis with functions of mismeasured covariate histories: the case of chronic air pollution exposure in relation to mortality in the nurses' health study.

Publications

Survival analysis with functions of mismeasured covariate histories: the case of chronic air pollution exposure in relation to mortality in the nurses' health study.

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