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Towards a novel model for studying the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian population by age and socioeconomic status.

ABSTRACT: Low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) are experiencing a nutritional transition in which the burden of obesity tends to shift towards the lower-socioeconomic status (SES) group. We propose a system dynamics (SD) model for assessing the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian urban population by age and SES projected to 2030. This SD model captures the ageing population according to body mass index (BMI) categories and SES. In this model, the transference rates (TRs) between BMI categories by age and SES are estimated using a heuristic based on data obtained from national surveys. The simulation results show that the Colombian population, particularly those aged 20 to 39 years with a lower SES, is moving towards the overweight and obese categories. The TRs for overweight and obese categories in the lower SES group (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0215 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0098 (per year)) are increasing more rapidly than the those in the middle (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0162 (per year) and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0065 (per year)) and higher SES groups (the mean TR from not overweight to overweight = 0.0166 and mean TR from overweight to obese = 0.0054 (per year)). Additionally, from 2005 to 2010, individuals aged 20 to 39 years had the highest TRs towards the overweight and obese categories (from 0.026 to 0.036 per year and from 0.0064 to 0.012 per year, respectively). The TRs also indicated that children aged 0 to 14 years are moving from the obese to overweight and from the overweight to not overweight categories. These TRs show that the Colombian population is experiencing an SES-related nutritional transition that is affecting the lower SES population. The proposed model could be implemented to assess the nutritional transitions experienced in other LMICs.

SUBMITTER: Meisel JD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5805245 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Towards a novel model for studying the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian population by age and socioeconomic status.

Meisel Jose D JD Sarmiento Olga L OL Olaya Camilo C Lemoine Pablo D PD Valdivia Juan A JA Zarama Roberto R

PloS one 20180208 2

Low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) are experiencing a nutritional transition in which the burden of obesity tends to shift towards the lower-socioeconomic status (SES) group. We propose a system dynamics (SD) model for assessing the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian urban population by age and SES projected to 2030. This SD model captures the ageing population according to body mass index (BMI) categories and SES. In this model, the transference rates (TRs) between BMI categories ...[more]

PMID: 29420563

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Project description:The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is increasing worldwide and has overtaken squamous histology in occurrence. We studied the impact of socioeconomic status (SES) on EAC stage at diagnosis, receipt of treatment, and survival. A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using Ontario Cancer Registry-linked administrative health data. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the association between SES (income quintile) and stage at EAC diagnosis and EAC treatment. Survival times following EAC diagnosis were estimated using Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis was used to examine the association between SES and EAC survival. Between 2003-2012, 2,125 EAC cases were diagnosed. Median survival for the lowest-SES group was 10.9 months compared to 11.6 months for the highest-SES group; the 5-year survival was 9.8% vs. 15.0%. Compared to individuals in the highest-SES group, individuals in the lowest-SES category experienced no significant difference in EAC treatment (91.6% vs. 93.3%, P = 0.314) and deaths (78.9% vs. 75.6%, P = 0.727). After controlling for covariates, no significant associations were found between SES and cancer stage at diagnosis and EAC treatment. Additionally, after controlling for age, gender, urban/rural residence, birth country, health region, aggregated diagnosis groups, cancer stage, treatment, and year of diagnosis, no significant association was found between SES and EAC survival. Moreover, increased mortality risk was observed among those with older age (P = 0.001), advanced-stage of EAC at diagnosis (P < 0.001), and those receiving chemotherapy alone, radiotherapy alone, or surgery plus chemotherapy (P < 0.001). Adjusted proportional-hazards model findings suggest that there is no association between SES and EAC survival. While the unadjusted model suggests reduced survival among individuals in lower income quintiles, this is no longer significant after adjusting for any covariate. Additionally, there is an apparent association between SES and survival when considering only those individuals diagnosed with stage 0-III EAC. These analyses suggest that the observed direct relationship between SES and survival is explained by patient-level factors including receipt of treatment, something that is potentially modifiable.

Project description:BackgroundSubjective "ladder" measurements of socio-economic status (SES) are easy-to-administer tools that ask respondents to rate their own SES, allowing them to evaluate their own material resources and determine where it places them relative to their community. Here, we sought to compare the MacArthur Scale of Subjective Social status to the WAMI, an objective measure of SES that includes data on water and sanitation, asset ownership, education, and income.MethodsLeveraging a study of 595 tuberculosis patients in Lima, Peru, we compared the MacArthur ladder score to the WAMI score using weighted Kappa scores and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. We identified outliers that fell outside the 95th percentile and assessed the durability of the inconsistencies between scores by re-testing a subset of participants. We then used Akaike information criterion (AIC) to compare the predictability of logistic regression models evaluating the association between the two SES scoring systems and history of asthma.ResultsThe correlation coefficient between the MacArthur ladder and WAMI scores was 0.37 and the weighted Kappa was 0.26. The correlation coefficients differed by less than 0.04 and the Kappa ranged from 0.26 to 0.34, indicating fair agreement. When we replaced the initial MacArthur ladder scores with retest scores, the number of individuals with disagreements between the two scores decreased from 21 to 10 and the correlation coefficient and weighted Kappa both increased by at least 0.03. Lastly, we found that when we categorized WAMI and MacArthur ladder scores into three groups, both had a linear trend association with history of asthma with effect sizes and AICs that differed by less than 15% and 2 points, respectively.ConclusionOur findings demonstrated fair agreement between the MacArthur ladder and WAMI scores. The agreement between the two SES measurements increased when they were further categorized into 3-5 categories, the form in which SES is often used in epidemiologic studies. The MacArthur score also performed similarly to WAMI in predicting a socio-economically sensitive health outcome. Researchers should consider subjective SES tools as an alternative method for measuring SES, particularly in large health studies where data collection is a burden.

Dataset Information

Towards a novel model for studying the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian population by age and socioeconomic status.

Publications

Towards a novel model for studying the nutritional stage dynamics of the Colombian population by age and socioeconomic status.

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