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Core pertussis transmission groups in England and Wales: A tale of two eras.

ABSTRACT: The recent resurgence of pertussis in England and Wales has been marked by infant deaths and rising cases in teens and adults. To understand which age cohorts are most responsible for these trends, we employed three separate statistical methods to analyze high-resolution pertussis reports from 1982 to 2012. The fine-grained nature of the time-series allowed us to describe the changes in age-specific incidence and contrast the transmission dynamics in the 1980s and during the resurgence era. Our results identified infants and school children younger than 10?years of age as a core group, prior to 2002: pertussis incidence in these populations was predictive of incidence in other age groups. After 2002, no core groups were identifiable. This conclusion is independent of methodology used. Because it is unlikely that the underlying contact patterns substantially changed over the study period, changes in predictability likely result from the introduction of more stringent diagnostics tests that may have inadvertently played a role in masking the relative contributions of core transmission groups.

SUBMITTER: Bento AI

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5806206 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:IntroductionInfection with the Cryptosporidium parasite causes over 4000 cases of diagnosed illness (cryptosporidiosis) in England and Wales each year. Risk factors are often estimated from outbreak investigations, and in the UK include ingestion of contaminated water and food, farm/animal contact and person-to-person spread in institutions. However, reported outbreaks only represent about 10% of cases and the transmission routes for sporadic disease may not be the same. Contact with other people has been highlighted as a factor in the transmission of Cryptosporidium, but the incidence of sporadic disease has not been sufficiently established, and how frequently this arises from contact with other infected people is not well documented. This project will estimate the amount of secondary spread that occurs in the home and potentially identify asymptomatic infections which might have a role in transmission. Risk factors and characteristics associated with secondary spread will be described including any differences in transmission between Cryptosporidium species.Methods and analysisThe study will prospectively identify cryptosporidiosis cases from North West England and Wales over 1 year and invite them and their household to take part. Each household will complete a questionnaire and each household member will be asked to provide a stool sample. Clinical, demographic and home variables will be described, and further analyses undertaken to investigate associations with secondary spread in the home. Cryptosporidium-positive stool samples, identified by immunofluorescence microscopy, will be characterised using molecular methods to describe patterns of transmission. Data collection is expected to take 1 year, beginning in September 2018.Ethics and disseminationThe study has been approved by the North West-Liverpool East NHS Research Ethics Committee (Reference: 18/NW/0300) and the Confidentiality and Advisory Group (Reference 18/CAG/0084). Outputs will include scientific conferences and peer-reviewed publications. In addition, a short, lay report of findings will be produced for participants, who can opt to receive this when they take part.Trial registration numberCPMS ID: 39458.

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Core pertussis transmission groups in England and Wales: A tale of two eras.

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