Dataset Information

Mortality Risk Prediction in Scleroderma-Related Interstitial Lung Disease: The SADL Model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with scleroderma (Scl). Risk prediction and prognostication in patients with Scl-ILD are challenging because of heterogeneity in the disease course.

Methods

We aimed to develop a clinical mortality risk prediction model for Scl-ILD. Patients with Scl-ILD were identified from two ongoing longitudinal cohorts: 135 patients at the University of California, San Francisco (derivation cohort) and 90 patients at the Mayo Clinic (validation cohort). Using these two separate cohorts, a mortality risk prediction model was developed and validated by testing every potential candidate Cox model, each including three or four variables of a possible 19 clinical predictors, for time to death. Model discrimination was assessed using the C-index.

Results

Three variables were included in the final risk prediction model (SADL): ever smoking history, age, and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (% predicted). This continuous model had similar performance in the derivation (C-index, 0.88) and validation (C-index, 0.84) cohorts. We created a point scoring system using the combined cohort (C-index, 0.82) and used it to identify a classification with low, moderate, and high mortality risk at 3 years.

Conclusions

The SADL model uses simple, readily accessible clinical variables to predict all-cause mortality in Scl-ILD.

SUBMITTER: Morisset J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5812750 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Mortality Risk Prediction in Scleroderma-Related Interstitial Lung Disease: The SADL Model.

Morisset Julie J Vittinghoff Eric E Elicker Brett M BM Hu Xiaowen X Le Stephanie S Ryu Jay H JH Jones Kirk D KD Haemel Anna A Golden Jeffrey A JA Boin Francesco F Ley Brett B Wolters Paul J PJ King Talmadge E TE Collard Harold R HR Lee Joyce S JS

Chest 20170616 5

<h4>Background</h4>Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with scleroderma (Scl). Risk prediction and prognostication in patients with Scl-ILD are challenging because of heterogeneity in the disease course.<h4>Methods</h4>We aimed to develop a clinical mortality risk prediction model for Scl-ILD. Patients with Scl-ILD were identified from two ongoing longitudinal cohorts: 135 patients at the University of California, San Francisco (derivation ...[more]

PMID: 28629914

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Project description:Although several genetic associations with scleroderma (SSc) are defined, very little is known on genetic susceptibility to SSc-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD). A number of common polymorphisms have been associated with SSc-ILD, but most have not been replicated in separate populations. Four SNPs in IRF5, and one in each of STAT4, CD226 and IRAK1, selected as having been previously the most consistently associated with SSc-ILD, were genotyped in 612 SSc patients, of European descent, of whom 394 had ILD. The control population (n?=?503) comprised individuals of European descent from the 1000 Genomes Project. After Bonferroni correction, two of the IRF5 SNPs, rs2004640 (OR (95% CI)1.30 (1.10-1.54), pcorr?=?0.015) and rs10488631 (OR 1.48 (1.14-1.92), pcorr?=?0.022), and the STAT4 SNP rs7574865 (OR 1.43 (1.18-1.73), pcorr?=?0.0015) were significantly associated with SSc compared with controls. However, none of the SNPs were significantly different between patients with SSc-ILD and controls. Two SNPs in IRF5, rs10488631 (OR 1.72 (1.24-2.39), pcorr?=?0.0098), and rs2004640 (OR 1.39 (1.11-1.75), pcorr?=?0.03), showed a significant difference in allele frequency between controls and patients without ILD, as did STAT4 rs7574865 (OR 1.86 (1.45-2.38), pcorr?=?6.6?×?10-6). A significant difference between SSc with and without ILD was only observed for STAT4 rs7574865, being less frequent in patients with ILD (OR 0.66 (0.51-0.85), pcorr?=?0.0084). In conclusion, IRF5 rs2004640 and rs10488631, and STAT4 rs7574865 were significantly associated with SSc as a whole. Only STAT4 rs7574865 showed a significant difference in allele frequency in SSc-ILD, with the T allele being protective against ILD.Key points• We confirm the associations of the IRF5 SNPs rs2004640 and rs10488631, and the STAT4 SNP rs7574865, with SSc as a whole.• None of the tested SNPs were risk factors for SSc-ILD specifically.• The STAT4 rs7574865 T allele was protective against the development of lung fibrosis in SSc patients.• Further work is required to understand the genetic basis of lung fibrosis in association with scleroderma.

Project description:Patients with systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) are thought to have the greatest decline in lung function (forced vital capacity [FVC]% predicted) in the early years after disease onset. The aim of this study was to assess the natural history of the decline in FVC% predicted in patients receiving placebo in the Scleroderma Lung Study and to evaluate possible factors for cohort enrichment in future therapeutic trials.Patients randomized to receive placebo (n=79) were divided into 3 groups based on the duration of SSc (0-2 years, 2-4 years, and >4 years). Descriptive statistics and a mixed-effects model were used to analyze the rate of decline in the FVC% predicted over a 1-year period. Additional analyses stratified according to the severity of fibrosis on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) were performed, and interactions between disease severity and disease duration were explored.The mean±SD decline in the unadjusted FVC% predicted during the 1-year period was 4.2±12.8%. At baseline, 28.5%, 43.0%, and 28.5% of patients were in the groups with disease durations of 0-2 years, 2-4 years, and >4 years, respectively. The rate of decline in the FVC% predicted was not significantly different across the 3 disease groups (P=0.85). When stratified by baseline fibrosis on HRCT, the rate of decline in the FVC% predicted was statistically significantly greater in the group with severe fibrosis (mean annualized decline in the FVC% predicted 7.2% versus 2.7% in the groups with no or moderate fibrosis; P=0.008). The decline observed in the group with severe fibrosis was most pronounced in those with a relatively short disease duration (0-2 years; annualized decline 7.0%).Among patients with SSc-ILD in the Scleroderma Lung Study, the rates of progression of lung disease were similar irrespective of disease duration. The baseline HRCT fibrosis score is a predictor of a future decline in the FVC% predicted in the absence of effective treatment.

Dataset Information

Mortality Risk Prediction in Scleroderma-Related Interstitial Lung Disease: The SADL Model.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Mortality Risk Prediction in Scleroderma-Related Interstitial Lung Disease: The SADL Model.

Similar Datasets

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