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Infectious Disease Dynamics Inferred from Genetic Data via Sequential Monte Carlo.

ABSTRACT: Genetic sequences from pathogens can provide information about infectious disease dynamics that may supplement or replace information from other epidemiological observations. Most currently available methods first estimate phylogenetic trees from sequence data, then estimate a transmission model conditional on these phylogenies. Outside limited classes of models, existing methods are unable to enforce logical consistency between the model of transmission and that underlying the phylogenetic reconstruction. Such conflicts in assumptions can lead to bias in the resulting inferences. Here, we develop a general, statistically efficient, plug-and-play method to jointly estimate both disease transmission and phylogeny using genetic data and, if desired, other epidemiological observations. This method explicitly connects the model of transmission and the model of phylogeny so as to avoid the aforementioned inconsistency. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach through simulation and apply it to estimate stage-specific infectiousness in a subepidemic of human immunodeficiency virus in Detroit, Michigan. In a supplement, we prove that our approach is a valid sequential Monte Carlo algorithm. While we focus on how these methods may be applied to population-level models of infectious disease, their scope is more general. These methods may be applied in other biological systems where one seeks to infer population dynamics from genetic sequences, and they may also find application for evolutionary models with phenotypic rather than genotypic data.

SUBMITTER: Smith RA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5815633 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Infectious Disease Dynamics Inferred from Genetic Data via Sequential Monte Carlo.

Smith R A RA Ionides E L EL King A A AA

Molecular biology and evolution 20170801 8

Genetic sequences from pathogens can provide information about infectious disease dynamics that may supplement or replace information from other epidemiological observations. Most currently available methods first estimate phylogenetic trees from sequence data, then estimate a transmission model conditional on these phylogenies. Outside limited classes of models, existing methods are unable to enforce logical consistency between the model of transmission and that underlying the phylogenetic reco ...[more]

PMID: 28402447

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Project description:High-throughput gene expression data are often obtained from pure or complex (heterogeneous) biological samples. In the latter case, data obtained are a mixture of different cell types and the heterogeneity imposes some difficulties in the analysis of such data. In order to make conclusions on gene expresssion data obtained from heterogeneous samples, methods such as microdissection and flow cytometry have been employed to physically separate the constituting cell types. However, these manual approaches are time consuming when measuring the responses of multiple cell types simultaneously. In addition, exposed samples, on many occasions, end up being contaminated with external perturbations and this may result in an altered yield of molecular content. In this paper, we model the heterogeneous gene expression data using a Bayesian framework, treating the cell type proportions and the cell-type specific expressions as the parameters of the model. Specifically, we present a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler for estimating the model parameters by approximating their posterior distributions with a set of weighted samples. The SMC framework is a robust and efficient approach where we construct a sequence of artificial target (posterior) distributions on spaces of increasing dimensions which admit the distributions of interest as marginals. The proposed algorithm is evaluated on simulated datasets and publicly available real datasets, including Affymetrix oligonucleotide arrays and national center for biotechnology information (NCBI) gene expression omnibus (GEO), with varying number of cell types. The results obtained on all datasets show a superior performance with an improved accuracy in the estimation of cell type proportions and the cell-type specific expressions, and in addition, more accurate identification of differentially expressed genes when compared to other widely known methods for blind decomposition of heterogeneous gene expression data such as Dsection and the nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithms. MATLAB implementation of the proposed SMC algorithm is available to download at https://github.com/moyanre/smcgenedeconv.git.

Dataset Information

Infectious Disease Dynamics Inferred from Genetic Data via Sequential Monte Carlo.

Publications

Infectious Disease Dynamics Inferred from Genetic Data via Sequential Monte Carlo.

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