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An evaluation of the 25 by 25 goal for premature cardiovascular disease mortality in Taiwan: an age-period-cohort analysis, population attributable fraction and national population-based study.

ABSTRACT: Objectives:The aim of the 25 by 25 goal is to reduce mortality from premature non-communicable diseases by 25% before 2025. Studies have evaluated the 25 by 25 goal in many countries, but not in Taiwan. The aim of this study was to estimate the 25 by 25 goal for premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Taiwan. Methods:We applied the age-period-cohort model to project the incidence of premature death from cardiovascular disease from 2015 to 2024 and used the population attributable fraction to estimate the contributions of targeted risk factors. The probability of death was used to estimate the percent change. Results:The percent change in business-as-usual trend during 2010-2024 was only a 6% (range 1.7-10.7%) lower risk of premature mortality from cardiovascular disease among men. The greatest reduction in the risk of mortality occurred with a 30% reduction in the prevalence of smoking; however, there was only a 14.5% (10.6-18.3%) decrease in percent change and in the corresponding number of men (3706: range 3543-3868) who were prevented from dying. More than a 25% reduction in the percent change of premature cardiovascular disease mortality among women was achieved without control of any risk factor. To reach a 25% reduction in men before 2025, there needs to be a 70% reduction in the prevalence of smoking to reduce mortality by 26.2% (22.9-29.3%). Conclusions:Cigarette smoking is the primary target in the prevention of cardiovascular disease. Through the stringent control of smoking, the goal of a 25% reduction in premature mortality from cardiovascular disease may be achieved before 2025 in Taiwan.

SUBMITTER: Su SY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5818053 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An evaluation of the 25 by 25 goal for premature cardiovascular disease mortality in Taiwan: an age-period-cohort analysis, population attributable fraction and national population-based study.

Su Shih-Yung SY Lee Wen-Chung WC Chen Tzu-Ting TT Wang Hao-Chien HC Su Ta-Chen TC Jeng Jiann-Shing JS Tu Yu-Kang YK Liao Shu-Fen SF Lu Tzu-Pin TP Chien Kuo-Liong KL

Heart Asia 20170807 2

<h4>Objectives</h4>The aim of the 25 by 25 goal is to reduce mortality from premature non-communicable diseases by 25% before 2025. Studies have evaluated the 25 by 25 goal in many countries, but not in Taiwan. The aim of this study was to estimate the 25 by 25 goal for premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Taiwan.<h4>Methods</h4>We applied the age-period-cohort model to project the incidence of premature death from cardiovascular disease from 2015 to 2024 and used the population a ...[more]

PMID: 29467836

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Project description:Chlamydia trachomatis infection is highly prevalent among young women in the United States. Prevention of long-term sequelae of infection, including tubal factor infertility, is a primary goal of chlamydia screening and treatment activities. However, the population-attributable fraction of tubal factor infertility associated with chlamydia is unclear, and optimal measures for assessing tubal factor infertility and prior chlamydia in epidemiological studies have not been established. Black women have increased rates of chlamydia and tubal factor infertility compared with White women but have been underrepresented in prior studies of the association of chlamydia and tubal factor infertility.The objectives of the study were to estimate the population-attributable fraction of tubal factor infertility associated with Chlamydia trachomatis infection by race (Black, non-Black) and assess how different definitions of Chlamydia trachomatis seropositivity and tubal factor infertility affect population-attributable fraction estimates.We conducted a case-control study, enrolling infertile women attending infertility practices in Birmingham, AL, and Pittsburgh, PA, during October 2012 through June 2015. Tubal factor infertility case status was primarily defined by unilateral or bilateral fallopian tube occlusion (cases) or bilateral fallopian tube patency (controls) on hysterosalpingogram. Alternate tubal factor infertility definitions incorporated history suggestive of tubal damage or were based on laparoscopic evidence of tubal damage. We aimed to enroll all eligible women, with an expected ratio of 1 and 3 controls per case for Black and non-Black women, respectively. We assessed Chlamydia trachomatis seropositivity with a commercial assay and a more sensitive research assay; our primary measure of seropositivity was defined as positivity on either assay. We estimated Chlamydia trachomatis seropositivity and calculated Chlamydia trachomatis-tubal factor infertility odds ratios and population-attributable fraction, stratified by race.We enrolled 107 Black women (47 cases, 60 controls) and 620 non-Black women (140 cases, 480 controls). Chlamydia trachomatis seropositivity by either assay was 81% (95% confidence interval, 73-89%) among Black and 31% (95% confidence interval, 28-35%) among non-Black participants (P < .001). Using the primary Chlamydia trachomatis seropositivity and tubal factor infertility definitions, no significant association was detected between chlamydia and tubal factor infertility among Blacks (odds ratio, 1.22, 95% confidence interval, 0.45-3.28) or non-Blacks (odds ratio, 1.41, 95% confidence interval, 0.95-2.09), and the estimated population-attributable fraction was 15% (95% confidence interval, -97% to 68%) among Blacks and 11% (95% confidence interval, -3% to 23%) among non-Blacks. Use of alternate serological measures and tubal factor infertility definitions had an impact on the magnitude of the chlamydia-tubal factor infertility association and resulted in a significant association among non-Blacks.Low population-attributable fraction estimates suggest factors in addition to chlamydia contribute to tubal factor infertility in the study population. However, high background Chlamydia trachomatis seropositivity among controls, most striking among Black participants, could have obscured an association with tubal factor infertility and resulted in a population-attributable fraction that underestimates the true etiological role of chlamydia. Choice of chlamydia and tubal factor infertility definitions also has an impact on the odds ratio and population-attributable fraction estimates.

Project description:BackgroundSevere maternal morbidity is an important proxy for maternal mortality. Population attributable fraction is the proportion of a disease that is attributable to a given risk factor and can be used to estimate the reduction in the disease that would be anticipated if a risk factor was reduced or eliminated.ObjectiveWe sought to determine the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of potentially modifiable risk factors for severe maternal morbidity.Study designWe used a retrospective cohort of 86,260 delivery hospitalizations from Magee-Womens Hospital, Pittsburgh, PA for this analysis (2003-2012). Severe maternal morbidity was defined as any of the following: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention International Classification of Diseases 9th Revision diagnosis and procedure codes for the identification of maternal morbidity; prolonged postpartum length of stay (defined as >3 standard deviations beyond the mean length of stay: >3 days for vaginal deliveries and >5 days for Cesarean deliveries); or maternal intensive care unit admission. We used multivariable logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to estimate the association of prepregnancy overweight or obesity, maternal age ≥35 years, preexisting hypertension, preexisting diabetes, excessive gestational weight gain, smoking, education, and marital status with severe maternal morbidity. We then calculated the PAF for each risk factor. We also examined the impact of modest reductions and elimination of risk factors on the PAF of severe maternal morbidity.ResultsThe overall rate of severe maternal morbidity was 2.0%. Overweight and obesity, maternal age ≥35 years, preexisting hypertension, excessive gestational weight gain, and lack of a college degree had PAF ranging from 4.5% to 13%. If all risk factors were eliminated, 36% of cases could have been prevented. Modest reductions in the prevalence of excessive BMI and advanced maternal age had minimal impact on preventing severe maternal morbidity. Smoking during pregnancy and marital status were not associated with severe maternal morbidity.ConclusionsOur data suggest maternal morbidity can be reduced by modifying common, individual-level risk factors. Nevertheless, the majority of cases were not attributable to the patient level risk factors we examined. These data support the need for large studies of patient-, provider-, system- and population-level factors to identify high-impact interventions to reduce maternal morbidity.

Dataset Information

An evaluation of the 25 by 25 goal for premature cardiovascular disease mortality in Taiwan: an age-period-cohort analysis, population attributable fraction and national population-based study.

Publications

An evaluation of the 25 by 25 goal for premature cardiovascular disease mortality in Taiwan: an age-period-cohort analysis, population attributable fraction and national population-based study.

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