Dataset Information

Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction.

ABSTRACT: Western US snowpack-snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains-plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of the century and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e.g., plant choice and quantity). Seasonal predictions with climate models first took the form of El Niño predictions 3 decades ago, with hydroclimate predictions emerging more recently. While the field has been focused on single-season predictions (3 months or less), we are now poised to advance our predictions beyond this timeframe. Utilizing observations, climate indices, and a suite of global climate models, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal snowpack predictions and quantify the limits of predictive skill 8 months in advance. This physically based dynamic system outperforms observation-based statistical predictions made on July 1 for March snowpack everywhere except the southern Sierra Nevada, a region where prediction skill is nonexistent for every predictor presently tested. Additionally, in the absence of externally forced negative trends in snowpack, narrow maritime mountain ranges with high hydroclimate variability pose a challenge for seasonal prediction in our present system; natural snowpack variability may inherently be unpredictable at this timescale. This work highlights present prediction system successes and gives cause for optimism for developing seasonal predictions for societal needs.

SUBMITTER: Kapnick SB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5819428 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction.

Kapnick Sarah B SB Yang Xiaosong X Vecchi Gabriel A GA Delworth Thomas L TL Gudgel Rich R Malyshev Sergey S Milly P C D PCD Shevliakova Elena E Underwood Seth S Margulis Steven A SA

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20180122 6

Western US snowpack-snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains-plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of the century and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e ...[more]

PMID: 29358397

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundArctic snowpack microbial communities are continually subject to dynamic chemical and microbial input from the atmosphere. As such, the factors that contribute to structuring their microbial communities are complex and have yet to be completely resolved. These snowpack communities can be used to evaluate whether they fit niche-based or neutral assembly theories.MethodsWe sampled snow from 22 glacier sites on 7 glaciers across Svalbard in April during the maximum snow accumulation period and prior to the melt period to evaluate the factors that drive snowpack metataxonomy. These snowpacks were seasonal, accumulating in early winter on bare ice and firn and completely melting out in autumn. Using a Bayesian fitting strategy to evaluate Hubbell's Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity at multiple sites, we tested for neutrality and defined immigration rates at different taxonomic levels. Bacterial abundance and diversity were measured and the amount of potential ice-nucleating bacteria was calculated. The chemical composition (anions, cations, organic acids) and particulate impurity load (elemental and organic carbon) of the winter and spring snowpack were also characterized. We used these data in addition to geographical information to assess possible niche-based effects on snow microbial communities using multivariate and variable partitioning analysis.ResultsWhile certain taxonomic signals were found to fit the neutral assembly model, clear evidence of niche-based selection was observed at most sites. Inorganic chemistry was not linked directly to diversity, but helped to identify predominant colonization sources and predict microbial abundance, which was tightly linked to sea spray. Organic acids were the most significant predictors of microbial diversity. At low organic acid concentrations, the snow microbial structure represented the seeding community closely, and evolved away from it at higher organic acid concentrations, with concomitant increases in bacterial numbers.ConclusionsThese results indicate that environmental selection plays a significant role in structuring snow microbial communities and that future studies should focus on activity and growth. Video Abstract.

Project description:BackgroundSeveral migratory ungulates, including caribou, are dramatically declining. Caribou of the Barren-ground ecotype, which forms its own subspecies, are known to be mainly migratory. By contrast, within the Woodland subspecies, animals of the Boreal ecotype are known to be mainly sedentary, while those within the Northern and Central Mountain ecotypes to be partially migratory, with only some individuals migrating. Promotion of conservation actions (e.g., habitat protection) that are specific to both residents and migrants, as well as to the areas they frequent seasonally (which may be separate for migrants), requires distinguishing migration from other movement behaviours, which might be a challenge.MethodsWe aimed at assessing seasonal movement behaviours, including migratory, resident, dispersing, and nomadic, for caribou belonging to the Barren-ground and Woodland subspecies and ecotypes. We examined seasonal displacement, both planar and altitudinal, and seasonal ranges overlap for 366 individuals that were GPS-collared in Northern and Western Canada. Lastly, we assessed the ability of caribou individuals to switch between migratory and non-migratory movement behaviours between years.ResultsWe detected migratory behaviour within each of the studied subspecies and ecotypes. However, seasonal ranges overlap (an index of sedentary behaviour) varied, with proportions of clear migrants (0 overlap) of 40.94% for Barren-ground caribou and 23.34% for Woodland caribou, and of 32.95%, 54.87%, and 8.86% for its Northern Mountain, Central Mountain, and Boreal ecotype, respectively. Plastic switches of individuals were also detected between migratory, resident, dispersing, and nomadic seasonal movements performed across years.ConclusionsOur unexpected findings of marked seasonal movement plasticity in caribou indicate that this phenomenon should be better studied to understand the resilience of this endangered species to habitat and climatic changes. Our results that a substantial proportion of individuals engaged in seasonal migration in all studied ecotypes indicate that caribou conservation plans should account for critical habitat in both summer and winter ranges. Accordingly, conservation strategies are being devised for the Woodland subspecies and its ecotypes, which were found to be at least partially migratory in this study. Our findings that migration is detectable with both planar and altitudinal analyses of seasonal displacement provide a tool to better define seasonal ranges, also in mountainous and hilly environments, and protect habitat there.

Dataset Information

Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction.

Publications

Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets