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Prescriptive variability of drugs by general practitioners.

ABSTRACT: Prescription drug spending is growing faster than any other sector of healthcare. However, very little is known about patterns of prescribing and cost of prescribing between general practices. In this study, we examined variation in prescription rates and prescription costs through time for 55 GP surgeries in Northern Ireland Western Health and Social Care Trust. Temporal changes in variability of prescribing rates and costs were assessed using the Mann-Kendall test. Outlier practices contributing to between practice variation in prescribing rates were identified with the interquartile range outlier detection method. The relationship between rates and cost of prescribing was explored with Spearman's statistics. The differences in variability and mean number of prescribing rates associated with the practice setting and socioeconomic deprivation were tested using t-test and F-test respectively. The largest between-practice difference in prescribing rates was observed for Apr-Jun 2015, with the number of prescriptions ranging from 3.34 to 8.36 per patient. We showed that practices with outlier prescribing rates greatly contributed to between-practice variability. The largest difference in prescribing costs was reported for Apr-Jun 2014, with the prescription cost per patient ranging from £26.4 to £64.5. In addition, the temporal changes in variability of prescribing rates and costs were shown to undergo an upward trend. We demonstrated that practice setting and socio-economic deprivation accounted for some of the between-practice variation in prescribing. Rural practices had higher between practice variability than urban practices at all time points. Practices situated in more deprived areas had higher prescribing rates but lower variability than those located in less deprived areas. Further analysis is recommended to assess if variation in prescribing can be explained by demographic characteristics of patient population and practice features. Identification of other factors contributing to prescribing variability can help us better address potential inappropriateness of prescribing.

SUBMITTER: Bucholc M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5819764 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prescriptive variability of drugs by general practitioners.

Bucholc Magda M O'Kane Maurice M Ashe Siobhan S Wong-Lin KongFatt K

PloS one 20180220 2

Prescription drug spending is growing faster than any other sector of healthcare. However, very little is known about patterns of prescribing and cost of prescribing between general practices. In this study, we examined variation in prescription rates and prescription costs through time for 55 GP surgeries in Northern Ireland Western Health and Social Care Trust. Temporal changes in variability of prescribing rates and costs were assessed using the Mann-Kendall test. Outlier practices contributi ...[more]

PMID: 29462143

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Project description:IntroductionNew financial incentives, such as reduced Medicare reimbursements, have led hospitals to closely monitor their readmission rates and initiate efforts aimed at reducing them. In this context, many surgical departments participate in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP), which collects detailed demographic, laboratory, clinical, procedure and perioperative occurrence data. The availability of such data enables the development of data science methods which predict readmissions and, as done in this paper, offer specific recommendations aimed at preventing readmissions.Materials and methodsThis study leverages NSQIP data for 722,101 surgeries to develop predictive and prescriptive models, predicting readmissions and offering real-time, personalized treatment recommendations for surgical patients during their hospital stay, aimed at reducing the risk of a 30-day readmission. We applied a variety of classification methods to predict 30-day readmissions and developed two prescriptive methods to recommend pre-operative blood transfusions to increase the patient's hematocrit with the objective of preventing readmissions. The effect of these interventions was evaluated using several predictive models.ResultsPredictions of 30-day readmissions based on the entire collection of NSQIP variables achieve an out-of-sample accuracy of 87% (Area Under the Curve-AUC). Predictions based only on pre-operative variables have an accuracy of 74% AUC, out-of-sample. Personalized interventions, in the form of pre-operative blood transfusions identified by the prescriptive methods, reduce readmissions by 12%, on average, for patients considered as candidates for pre-operative transfusion (pre-operative hematoctic <30). The prediction accuracy of the proposed models exceeds results in the literature.ConclusionsThis study is among the first to develop a methodology for making specific, data-driven, personalized treatment recommendations to reduce the 30-day readmission rate. The reported predicted reduction in readmissions can lead to more than $20 million in savings in the U.S. annually.

Project description:Patients with persistent orofacial pain (POFP) can go through complex care pathways to receive a diagnosis and management, which can negatively affect their pain. This study aimed to describe 44-y trends in attendances at Welsh medical practices for POFP and establish the number of attendances per patient and referrals associated with orofacial pain and factors that may predict whether a patient is referred. A retrospective observational study was completed using the nationwide Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank of visits to general medical practices in Wales (UK). Data were extracted using diagnostic codes ("Read codes"). Orofacial and migraine Read codes were extracted between 1974 and 2017. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and univariate and multivariable logistic regression. Over the 44-y period, there were 468,827 POFP and migraine diagnostic codes, accounting for 468,137 patient attendances, or 301,832 patients. The overall attendance rate was 4.22 attendances per 1,000 patient-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.21-4.23). The attendance rate increased over the study period. Almost one-third of patients (n = 92,192, 30.54%) attended more than once over the study period, and 15.83% attended more than once within a 12-mo period. There were 20,103 referral codes that were associated with 8,183 patients, with over half these patients being referred more than once. Odds of receiving a referral were highest in females (odds ratio [OR], 1.23; 95% CI, 1.17-1.29), in those living in rural locations (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.12-1.22), and in the least deprived quintile (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.29-1.48). Odds also increased with increasing age (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.03-1.03). The increasing attendance may be explained by the increasing incidence of POFP within the population. These patients can attend on a repeated basis, and very few are referred, but when they are, this may occur multiple times; therefore, current care pathways could be improved.

Project description:ObjectiveGiven recent concerns regarding general practitioner (GP) workforce capacity, we aimed to describe GPs' career intentions, especially those which might impact on GP workforce availability over the next 5 years.DesignCensus survey, conducted between April and June 2016 using postal and online responses , of all GPs on the National Health Service performers list and eligible to practise in primary care. Two reminders were used as necessary.SettingSouth West England (population 3.5 ?million), a region with low overall socioeconomic deprivation.ParticipantsEligible GPs were 2248 out of 3370 (67 % response rate).Main outcome measuresReported likelihood of permanently leaving or reducing hours spent in direct patient care or of taking a career break within the next 5 years and present morale weighted for non-response.ResultsResponders included 217 7 GPs engaged in patient care. Of these, 863 (37% weighted, 95% ?CI 35 % to 39 %) reported a high likelihood of quitting direct patient care within the next 5 years. Overall, 1535 (70% weighted, 95% ?CI 68 % to 72 %) respondents reported a career intention that would negatively impact GP workforce capacity over the next 5 years, through permanently leaving or reducing hours spent in direct patient care, or through taking a career break. GP age was an important predictor of career intentions; sharp increases in the proportion of GPs intending to quit patient care were evident from 52 years. Only 305 (14% weighted, 95% ?CI 13 % to 16 %) reported high morale, while 1195 ( 54 % weighted, 95% ?CI 52 % to 56 %) reported low morale. Low morale was particularly common among GP partners. Current morale strongly predicted GPs' career intentions; those with very low morale were particularly likely to report intentions to quit patient care or to take a career break.ConclusionsA substantial majority of GPs in South West England report low morale. Many are considering career intentions which, if implemented, would adversely impact GP workforce capacity within a short time period.Study registrationNIHR HS&DR - 14/196/02, UKCRN ID 20700.

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Prescriptive variability of drugs by general practitioners.

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Prescriptive variability of drugs by general practitioners.

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