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Quantified Uncertainties in Comparative Life Cycle Assessment: What Can Be Concluded?

ABSTRACT: Interpretation of comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results can be challenging in the presence of uncertainty. To aid in interpreting such results under the goal of any comparative LCA, we aim to provide guidance to practitioners by gaining insights into uncertainty-statistics methods (USMs). We review five USMs-discernibility analysis, impact category relevance, overlap area of probability distributions, null hypothesis significance testing (NHST), and modified NHST-and provide a common notation, terminology, and calculation platform. We further cross-compare all USMs by applying them to a case study on electric cars. USMs belong to a confirmatory or an exploratory statistics' branch, each serving different purposes to practitioners. Results highlight that common uncertainties and the magnitude of differences per impact are key in offering reliable insights. Common uncertainties are particularly important as disregarding them can lead to incorrect recommendations. On the basis of these considerations, we recommend the modified NHST as a confirmatory USM. We also recommend discernibility analysis as an exploratory USM along with recommendations for its improvement, as it disregards the magnitude of the differences. While further research is necessary to support our conclusions, the results and supporting material provided can help LCA practitioners in delivering a more robust basis for decision-making.

SUBMITTER: Mendoza Beltran A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5822221 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Quantified Uncertainties in Comparative Life Cycle Assessment: What Can Be Concluded?

Mendoza Beltran Angelica A Prado Valentina V Font Vivanco David D Henriksson Patrik J G PJG Guinée Jeroen B JB Heijungs Reinout R

Environmental science & technology 20180206 4

Interpretation of comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results can be challenging in the presence of uncertainty. To aid in interpreting such results under the goal of any comparative LCA, we aim to provide guidance to practitioners by gaining insights into uncertainty-statistics methods (USMs). We review five USMs-discernibility analysis, impact category relevance, overlap area of probability distributions, null hypothesis significance testing (NHST), and modified NHST-and provide a common n ...[more]

PMID: 29406730

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Project description:The increasing consumption of cleaning products deteriorates water resources due to harmful components such as phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) compounds, oils, bleach, and acids, typical compounds in traditional detergents. The use of biodegradable detergents as an environmentally friendly alternative has been proposed in different regions. In Colombia, resolution 1770/2018 sets a minimum biodegradability rate of 60% for the surfactants present in liquid detergents, which would reduce to a similar extent the impacts on water after their use. However, the environmental impacts of the supply chain of these detergents and their raw materials have not been evaluated so far. This study presents an environmental life cycle assessment of petroleum-based liquid detergents and a comparison to traditional solid detergents, based on the ISO 14040 standard and the ReCiPe-2016 impacts assessment method. A novel bio-detergent containing anionic plant-based surfactants was proposed in this analysis. The impacts of packaging and the distribution of the product to consumers were also considered. Raw materials contributed to 91% of the total of 314 g of CO2 eq generated per liter of liquid detergent, where the production of fatty alcohol sulfate and PET packaging shared 78.8% and 12.2% of the total impact, respectively. It was also determined that 5.4 L of water are consumed and 0.09 g of P eq and 0.1 g of N eq are emitted per liter of detergent. This liquid detergent presented better environmental performance than traditional detergents in all the impact categories, except for the fossil resource scarcity category. The evaluated detergent would significantly mitigate the generation of negative effects on ecosystems. Moreover, the substitution of PET for HDPE packaging could reduce the impacts on freshwater eutrophication by 10%, although the carbon footprint can slightly increase, which could be compensated due to its higher recyclability rate. In contrast, the proposed bio-detergent would not have significant benefits and would negatively affect water consumption and land use in its supply chain.

Dataset Information

Quantified Uncertainties in Comparative Life Cycle Assessment: What Can Be Concluded?

Publications

Quantified Uncertainties in Comparative Life Cycle Assessment: What Can Be Concluded?

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