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Risk factors associated with 90-day recurrent stroke in patients on dual antiplatelet therapy for minor stroke or high-risk TIA: a subgroup analysis of the CHANCE trial.

ABSTRACT: Many patients receiving dual antiplatelet therapy still had recurrent strokes. We aimed to identify factors associated with recurrent stroke at 90 days in patients receiving dual antiplatelet therapy in Clopidogrel in High-risk patients with Acute Non-disabling Cerebrovascular Events trial.Patients with transient ischaemic attack or minor stroke receiving clopidogrel and aspirin in the trial were analysed in the study. The primary outcome was recurrent stroke within 90 days after the index event. Cox proportional hazard model with backward selection was used to identify factors associated with stroke.Among 2584 patients, 212 (8.2%) had a recurrent stroke, 216 (8.4%) had a composite of stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death and 204 (7.9%) had ischaemic stroke within 90 days. Multivariate analysis identified the following factors associated with stroke: history of hypertension with poor blood pressure control (HR, 1.92; 95% CI 1.22 to 3.03), the high baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score of 2 and 3 (2.12 (1.07 to 4.21) and 4.11 (2.05 to 8.22), respectively), time from onset to randomisation of <12?hours (1.47 (1.12 to 1.94)), the lipid-lowering therapy (0.61 (0.47 to 0.83)), the open-label aspirin dose at day 1 of ?300?mg (1.98 (1.45 to 2.69)). Intracranial arterial stenosis (ICAS) was significantly associated with stroke in the sensitivity analysis (2.17 (1.16 to 4.04)).The high baseline NIHSS score, hypertension with poor blood pressure control, ICAS, time from onset to randomisation of less than 12?hours and no lipid-lowering therapy were associated with stroke, suggesting that patients with identified predictors still remain to be at high risk of recurrent stroke although being under the dual antiplatelet therapy.http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT00979589. ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT00979589.

SUBMITTER: Wangqin R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5829906 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk factors associated with 90-day recurrent stroke in patients on dual antiplatelet therapy for minor stroke or high-risk TIA: a subgroup analysis of the CHANCE trial.

Wangqin Runqi R Wang Xianwei X Wang Yilong Y Xian Ying Y Zhao Xingquan X Liu Liping L Li Hao H Meng Xia X Wang Yongjun Y

Stroke and vascular neurology 20170706 4

<h4>Objective</h4>Many patients receiving dual antiplatelet therapy still had recurrent strokes. We aimed to identify factors associated with recurrent stroke at 90 days in patients receiving dual antiplatelet therapy in Clopidogrel in High-risk patients with Acute Non-disabling Cerebrovascular Events trial.<h4>Methods</h4>Patients with transient ischaemic attack or minor stroke receiving clopidogrel and aspirin in the trial were analysed in the study. The primary outcome was recurrent stroke wi ...[more]

PMID: 29507777

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Project description:ImportanceInfarction patterns may serve as important imaging markers to assess the probability of stroke recurrence in transient ischemic attack (TIA) and minor stroke. However, it is unclear whether patients with different infarction patterns benefit differently from dual antiplatelet therapy.ObjectivesTo investigate whether infarction patterns can stratify the risk of recurrent stroke and whether the efficacy and safety of clopidogrel plus aspirin vs aspirin alone are consistent in different infarction patterns after TIA or minor stroke.Design, setting, and participantsIn this prespecified imaging substudy of the Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients With Acute Nondisabling Cerebrovascular Events (CHANCE) randomized clinical trial, a total of 1342 patients with noncardioembolic TIA or minor stroke at 45 sites of CHANCE from October 1, 2009, to July 30, 2012, were included in this substudy. The final analysis was conducted on July 30, 2016, and included 1089 patients with required magnetic resonance imaging sequences. Infarction patterns were grouped into multiple acute infarctions (MAIs), single acute infarction (SAI), and no acute infarction (NAI) according to diffusion-weighted imaging.Main outcomes and measuresPrimary and secondary efficacy outcomes were stroke recurrence and new clinical vascular event after 3 months, respectively. The safety outcome was moderate to severe bleeding risk after 3 months.ResultsAmong 1089 patients, the mean (SD) age was 63.1 (10.7) years and 731 patients (65%) were men. Patients with MAIs (hazard ratio [HR], 5.8; 95% CI, 2.2-15.1; P < .001) and SAI (HR, 3.9; 95% CI, 1.5-10.5; P = .007) had higher risk of recurrent stroke than those with NAI after adjustment for potential confounders at 3-month follow-up. Stroke recurrence occurred in 15 (10.1%) and 25 (18.8%) of patients with MAIs administered clopidogrel plus aspirin and placebo plus aspirin, respectively (HR, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.3-0.96; P = .04), 24 (8.9%) and 24 (8.5%) of patients with SAI administered clopidogrel plus aspirin and placebo plus aspirin, respectively (HR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.6-2.0; P = .71), and 3 (2.6%) and 2 (1.4%) of patients with NAI administered clopidogrel plus aspirin and placebo plus aspirin, respectively (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 0.3-11.1; P = .56), with P = .04 for treatment × infarction pattern interaction effect. Clopidogrel plus aspirin did not increase moderate to severe bleeding risk.Conclusions and relevanceInfarction patterns can efficiently stratify the risk of recurrent stroke within 3 months of noncardioembolic TIA or minor ischemic stroke. Patients with MAIs received the most pronounced clinical benefit from dual antiplatelet therapy without increasing the risk of moderate to severe bleeding. However, even if after dual antiplatelet treatment, patients with MAIs still had a risk of stroke recurrence as high as those with SAI.Trial registrationclinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00979589.

Project description:Background and Purpose: The risk of recurrent stroke following a transient ischemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke is high, despite of a significant reduction in the past decade. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of using artificial neural network (ANN) for risk stratification of TIA or minor stroke patients. Methods: Consecutive patients with acute TIA or minor ischemic stroke presenting at a tertiary hospital during a 2-year period were recruited. We collected demographics, clinical and imaging data at baseline. The primary outcome was recurrent ischemic stroke within 1 year. We developed ANN models to predict the primary outcome. We randomly down-sampled patients without a primary outcome to 1:1 match with those with a primary outcome to mitigate data imbalance. We used a 5-fold cross-validation approach to train and test the ANN models to avoid overfitting. We employed 19 independent variables at baseline as the input neurons in the ANN models, using a learning algorithm based on backpropagation to minimize the loss function. We obtained the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and the c statistic of each ANN model from the 5 rounds of cross-validation and compared that of support vector machine (SVM) and Naïve Bayes classifier in risk stratification of the patients. Results: A total of 451 acute TIA or minor stroke patients were enrolled. Forty (8.9%) patients had a recurrent ischemic stroke within 1 year. Another 40 patients were randomly selected from those with no recurrent stroke, so that data from 80 patients in total were used for 5 rounds of training and testing of ANN models. The median sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and c statistic of the ANN models to predict recurrent stroke at 1 year was 75%, 75%, 75%, and 0.77, respectively. ANN model outperformed SVM and Naïve Bayes classifier in our dataset for predicting relapse after TIA or minor stroke. Conclusion: This pilot study indicated that ANN may yield a novel and effective method in risk stratification of TIA and minor stroke. Further studies are warranted for verification and improvement of the current ANN model.

Project description:BackgroundClinical prediction models/scores help clinicians make optimal evidence-based decisions when caring for their patients. To critically appraise such prediction models for use in a clinical setting, essential information on the derivation and validation of the models needs to be transparently reported. In this systematic review, we assessed the quality of reporting of derivation and validation studies of prediction models for the prognosis of recurrent stroke in patients with transient ischemic attack or minor stroke.MethodsMEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched up to February 04, 2020. Studies reporting development or validation of multivariable prognostic models predicting recurrent stroke within 90 days in patients with TIA or minor stroke were included. Included studies were appraised for reporting quality and conduct using a select list of items from the Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Statement.ResultsAfter screening 7026 articles, 60 eligible articles were retained, consisting of 100 derivation and validation studies of 27 unique prediction models. Four models were newly derived while 23 were developed by validating and updating existing models. Of the 60 articles, 15 (25%) reported an informative title. Among the 100 derivation and validation studies, few reported whether assessment of the outcome (24%) and predictors (12%) was blinded. Similarly, sample size justifications (49%), description of methods for handling missing data (16.1%), and model calibration (5%) were seldom reported. Among the 96 validation studies, 17 (17.7%) clearly reported on similarity (in terms of setting, eligibility criteria, predictors, and outcomes) between the validation and the derivation datasets. Items with the highest prevalence of adherence were the source of data (99%), eligibility criteria (93%), measures of discrimination (81%) and study setting (65%).ConclusionsThe majority of derivation and validation studies for the prognosis of recurrent stroke in TIA and minor stroke patients suffer from poor reporting quality. We recommend that all prediction model derivation and validation studies follow the TRIPOD statement to improve transparency and promote uptake of more reliable prediction models in practice.Trial registrationThe protocol for this review was registered with PROSPERO (Registration number CRD42020201130 ).

Dataset Information

Risk factors associated with 90-day recurrent stroke in patients on dual antiplatelet therapy for minor stroke or high-risk TIA: a subgroup analysis of the CHANCE trial.

Publications

Risk factors associated with 90-day recurrent stroke in patients on dual antiplatelet therapy for minor stroke or high-risk TIA: a subgroup analysis of the CHANCE trial.

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