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Risk Assessment in Patients With Diabetes With the TIMI Risk Score for Atherothrombotic Disease.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:Improved risk assessment for patients with type 2 diabetes and elevated cardiovascular (CV) risk is needed. The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) Risk Score for Secondary Prevention (TRS 2°P) predicts a gradient of risk in patients with prior myocardial infarction (MI) but has not been evaluated in patients with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS:CV event rates were compared by baseline TRS 2°P in 16,488 patients enrolled in SAVOR-TIMI 53 (Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 53) with type 2 diabetes and high CV risk or established CV disease. Calibration was tested in the diabetes cohort from the REACH (REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health) Registry. RESULTS:TRS 2°P revealed a robust risk gradient for the composite of CV death, MI, and ischemic stroke in the full trial population, with 2-year event rates of 0.9% in the lowest- and 19.8% in the highest-risk groups (Ptrend < 0.001). A clear risk gradient was present within the subgroups of all coronary artery disease (CAD), CAD without prior MI, CAD with prior MI, peripheral artery disease, and prior stroke (Ptrend < 0.001 for each), with consistent risk relationships across subgroups. The C-statistic (0.71 for CV death and 0.66 for the composite end point) was consistent in each subgroup. There was close calibration with the type 2 diabetes cohort from the REACH Registry (goodness-of-fit P = 0.78). CONCLUSIONS:The expanded TRS 2°P provides a practical and well-calibrated risk prediction tool for patients with type 2 diabetes.

SUBMITTER: Bergmark BA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5829964 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk Assessment in Patients With Diabetes With the TIMI Risk Score for Atherothrombotic Disease.

Bergmark Brian A BA Bhatt Deepak L DL Braunwald Eugene E Morrow David A DA Steg Ph Gabriel PG Gurmu Yared Y Cahn Avivit A Mosenzon Ofri O Raz Itamar I Bohula Erin E Scirica Benjamin M BM

Diabetes care 20171201 3

<h4>Objective</h4>Improved risk assessment for patients with type 2 diabetes and elevated cardiovascular (CV) risk is needed. The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) Risk Score for Secondary Prevention (TRS 2°P) predicts a gradient of risk in patients with prior myocardial infarction (MI) but has not been evaluated in patients with type 2 diabetes.<h4>Research design and methods</h4>CV event rates were compared by baseline TRS 2°P in 16,488 patients enrolled in SAVOR-TIMI 53 (Saxaglipti ...[more]

PMID: 29196298

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Project description:Background Patients with stable atherothrombotic disease vary in their risk of developing heart failure (HF). Circulating cardiovascular biomarkers may improve HF risk assessment and identify patients who may benefit from emerging HF preventive therapies. Methods and Results We measured high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I and BNP (B-type natriuretic peptide) in 15 833 patients with prior myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or peripheral artery disease from the TRA 2°P-TIMI 50 (Thrombin Receptor Antagonist in Secondary Prevention of Atherothrombotic Ischemic Events-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 50) trial, excluding patients with recent myocardial infarction (<30 days). Biomarkers were categorized using a priori cut points. Hospitalization for HF (HHF) end points were adjudicated with blinded structured review of serious adverse events. Associations between biomarkers and HHF outcomes were adjusted for sex and independent clinical risk predictors of HHF in our cohort (age ≥75, prior HF, type 2 diabetes mellitus, polyvascular disease, body mass index, anemia, chronic kidney disease, hypertension). Baseline high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I and BNP each identified a significant graded risk of HHF independent of clinical risk predictors, including in the subgroups of patients with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus and with and without prior HF. Patients with both high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I ≥5 ng/L and BNP ≥100 pg/mL had the highest HHF event rates. When added to a multivariable Cox regression model with clinical risk predictors (C-index 0.88; 95% CI, 0.85-0.90), BNP (C -index 0.92; 95% CI, 0.90-0.93), and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (C-index 0.90; 95% CI, 0.88-0.92) each significantly improved the prognostic performance of the model (both PLRT<0.001). Conclusions Biomarkers of myocardial injury and hemodynamic stress are independent predictors of HHF risk in patients with stable atherothrombotic disease, with and without prior HF and/or type 2 diabetes mellitus. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00526474.

Project description:Importance:An elevated level of urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR) is a marker of renal dysfunction and predictor of kidney failure/death in patients with type 2 diabetes. The prognostic use of UACR in established cardiac biomarkers is not well described. Objective:To evaluate whether UACR offers incremental prognostic benefit beyond risk factors and established plasma cardiovascular biomarkers. Design, Setting, and Participants:The Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (SAVOR-TIMI) 53 study was performed from May 2010 to May 2013 and evaluated the safety of saxagliptin vs placebo in patients with type 2 diabetes with overt cardiovascular disease or multiple risk factors. Median follow-up was 2.1 years (interquartile range, 1.8-2.3 years). Interventions:Patients were randomized to saxagliptin vs placebo plus standard care. Main Outcomes and Measures:Baseline UACR was measured in 15?760 patients (95.6% of the trial population) and categorized into thresholds. Results:Of 15?760 patients, 5205 were female (33.0%). The distribution of UARC categories were: 5805 patients (36.8%) less than 10 mg/g, 3891 patients (24.7%) at 10 to 30 mg/g, 4426 patients (28.1%) at 30 to 300 mg/g, and 1638 patients (10.4%) at more than 300 mg/g. When evaluated without cardiac biomarkers, there was a stepwise increase with each higher UACR category in the incidence of the primary composite end point (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke) (3.9%, 6.9%, 9.2%, and 14.3%); cardiovascular death (1.4%, 2.6%, 4.1%, and 6.9%); and hospitalization for heart failure (1.5%, 2.5%, 4.0%, and 8.3%) (adjusted P?<?.001 for trend). The net reclassification improvement at the event rate for each end point was 0.081 (95% CI, 0.025 to 0.161), 0.129 (95% CI, 0.029 to 0.202), and 0.056 (95% CI, -0.005 to 0.141), respectively. The stepwise increased cardiovascular risk associated with a UACR of more than 10 mg/g was also present within each chronic kidney disease category. The UACR was associated with outcomes after including cardiac biomarkers. However, the improvement in discrimination and reclassification was attenuated; net reclassification improvement at the event rate was 0.022 (95% CI, -0.022 to 0.067), -0.008 (-0.034 to 0.053), and 0.043 (-0.030 to 0.052) for the primary end point, cardiovascular death, and hospitalization for heart failure, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance:In patients with type 2 diabetes, UACR was independently associated with increased risk for a spectrum of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. However, the incremental cardiovascular prognostic value of UACR was minimal when evaluated together with contemporary cardiac biomarkers. Trial Registration:clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01107886.

Dataset Information

Risk Assessment in Patients With Diabetes With the TIMI Risk Score for Atherothrombotic Disease.

Publications

Risk Assessment in Patients With Diabetes With the TIMI Risk Score for Atherothrombotic Disease.

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