Effects of complexity and seasonality on backward bifurcation in vector-host models.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bilal S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5830785 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Effects of complexity and seasonality on backward bifurcation in vector-host models.
Bilal Shakir S Michael Edwin E
Royal Society open science 20180228 2
We study implications of complexity and seasonality in vector-host epidemiological models exhibiting backward bifurcation. Vector-host diseases represent complex infection systems that can vary in the transmission processes and population stages involved in disease progression. Seasonal fluctuations in external forcing factors can also interact in a complex way with internal host factors to govern the transmission dynamics. In backward bifurcation, the insufficiency of <i>R</i><sub>0</sub> < 1 f ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:An epidemiological model is presented that provides a comprehensive description of the transmission pathways involved for recurrent tuberculosis (TB), whereby cured individuals can become reinfected. Our main goal is to determine conditions that lead to the appearance of a backward bifurcation. This occurs when an asymptotically stable infection free equilibrium concurrently exists with a stable non-trivial equilibria even though the basic reproduction number R0 is less than unity. Although, some 10-30% cases of TB are recurrent, the role of recurrent TB as far as the formation of backward bifurcation is concerned, is rarely if ever studied. The model used here incorporates progressive primary infection, exogenous reinfection, endogenous reactivation and recurrent TB as transmission mechanisms that contribute to TB progression. Unlike other studies of TB dynamics that make use of frequency dependent transmission rates, our analysis provides exact backward bifurcation threshold conditions without resorting to commonly applied approximations and simplifying assumptions. Exploration of the model through analytical and numerical analysis reveal that recurrent TB is sometimes capable of triggering hysteresis effects which allow TB to persist when R0 < 1 even though there is no backward bifurcation. Furthermore, recurrent TB can independently induce backward bifurcation phenomena if it exceeds a certain threshold.
| S-EPMC5863985 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Demographic stochasticity and heterogeneity in transmission of infection can affect the dynamics of host-vector disease systems in important ways. We discuss the use of analytic techniques to assess the impact of demographic stochasticity in both well-mixed and heterogeneous settings. Disease invasion probabilities can be calculated using branching process methodology. We review the use of this theory for host-vector infections and examine its use in the face of heterogeneous transmission. Situations in which there is a marked asymmetry in transmission between host and vector are seen to be of particular interest. For endemic infections, stochasticity leads to variation in prevalence about the endemic level. If these fluctuations are large enough, disease extinction can occur via endemic fade-out. We develop moment equations that quantify the impact of stochasticity, providing insight into the likelihood of stochastic extinction. We frame our discussion in terms of the simple Ross malaria model, but discuss extensions to more realistic host-vector models.
| S-EPMC2394551 | biostudies-other
Project description:The conceptualization of patient complexity is just beginning in clinical medicine.This study aims (1) to propose a conceptual approach to complex patients; (2) to demonstrate how this approach promotes achieving congruence between patient and provider, a critical step in the development of maximally effective treatment plans; and (3) to examine availability of evidence to guide trade-off decisions and assess healthcare quality for complex patients.The Vector Model of Complexity portrays interactions between biological, socioeconomic, cultural, environmental and behavioral forces as health determinants. These forces are not easily discerned but exert profound influences on processes and outcomes of care for chronic medical conditions. Achieving congruence between patient, physician, and healthcare system is essential for effective, patient-centered care; requires assessment of all axes of the Vector Model; and, frequently, requires trade-off decisions to develop a tailored treatment plan. Most evidence-based guidelines rarely provide guidance for trade-off decisions. Quality measures often exclude complex patients and are not designed explicitly to assess their overall healthcare.We urgently need to expand the evidence base to inform the care of complex patients of all kinds, especially for the clinical trade-off decisions that are central to tailoring care. We offer long- and short-term strategies to begin to incorporate complexity into quality measurement and performance profiling, guided by the Vector Model. Interdisciplinary research should lay the foundation for a deeper understanding of the multiple sources of patient complexity and their interactions, and how provision of healthcare should be harmonized with complexity to optimize health.
| S-EPMC2219701 | biostudies-other
Project description:Anthropogenic disturbance impacts the phylogenetic composition and diversity of ecological communities. While changes in diversity are known to dramatically change species interactions and alter disease dynamics, the effects of phylogenetic changes in host and vector communities on disease have been relatively poorly studied. Using a theoretical model, we investigated how phylogeny and extinction influence network structural characteristics relevant to disease transmission in disturbed environments. We modelled a multi-host, multi-vector community as a bipartite ecological network, where nodes represent host and vector species and edges represent connections among them through vector feeding, and we simulated vector preferences and threat status on host and parasite phylogenies. We then simulated loss of hosts, including phylogenetically clustered losses, to investigate how extinction influences network structure. We compared effects of phylogeny and extinction to those of host specificity, which we predicted to strongly increase network modularity and reduce disease prevalence. The simulations revealed that extinction often increased modularity, with higher modularity as species loss increased, although not as much as increasing host specificity did. These results suggest that extinction itself, all else being equal, may reduce disease prevalence in disturbed communities. However, in real communities, systematic patterns in species loss (e.g. favoring high competence species) or changes in abundance may counteract these effects. Unexpectedly, we found that effects of phylogenetic signal in host and vector traits were relatively weak, and only important when phylogenetic signal of host and vector traits were similar, or when these traits both varied.
| S-EPMC8382198 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Carotid artery atherosclerotic disease is still a significant cause of cerebrovascular morbidity and mortality. A new angle-independent technique, measuring and visualizing blood flow velocities in all directions, called vector flow imaging (VFI) is becoming available from several vendors. VFI can provide more intuitive and quantitative imaging of vortex formation, which is not clearly distinguishable in the color Doppler image. VFI, as quantitative method assessing disturbed flow patterns of the carotid bifurcation, has the potential to allow better understanding of the diagnostic value of complex flow and to enhance risk stratification. This pictorial review article will show which new information VFI adds for the knowledge of hemodynamics in comparison to the conventional ultrasound techniques.Teaching points• VFI is an angle-independent technique measuring flow velocities in all directions. • This kind of VFI is based on a plane wave multidirectional excitation technique. • VFI allows quantitative assessment of carotid streamlines progression and visualizes vorticity. • VFI does not allow a precise comprehension of streamlines' 3D shape. • VFI allows a better understanding of carotid artery complex flows.
| S-EPMC5438320 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Organisms from temperate ecosystems experience a cyclic alternation of favorable seasons, when they can grow and develop, and unfavorable periods, characterized by low temperatures and reduced resource availability. A common adaptation to these changing conditions is to undergo a state of metabolic arrest triggered by environmental cues (e.g. diapause) during the unfavorable periods. Altered environmental conditions resulting from global change can expose organisms to contradictory cues, potentially triggering maladaptive responses. Here, I compared the performance of an oligophagous butterfly when experiencing consistent vs contradictory environmental cues by manipulating temperature, daylength, and host plant in the laboratory. I implemented a fully factorial design with realistic temperature and photoperiodic regimes to resemble environmental conditions during mid-summer and the summer-autumn transition within the focal species' range. To assess the role of host plant at mediating the effects of abiotic factors, larvae were fed foliage of either a high or a low-quality host species. Decreasing daylength was the primary cue inducing diapause; however, feeding on a low-quality host at low temperatures also induced diapause in larvae growing under constant summer daylength. Conversely, exposure to high temperatures while feeding on a high-quality host occasionally overruled the diapause-inducing effect of decreasing daylength. Feeding on a high-quality host mitigated the lethal effects of cold, but not of hot temperatures. In addition, exposure to cold temperatures resulted in a significant reduction of pupal mass only under decreasing daylength. These results indicate that responses to environmental stressors in this multivoltine butterfly differ across the growing season according to the eco-physiological state of individuals (whether they undergo direct development or diapause). Traits related to oligophagy, such as sensitivity to multiple cues for diapause induction, as well as some of its consequences, such as the occurrence of overlapping generations, are likely to mitigate some of the detrimental effects of global change.
| S-EPMC6728043 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Understanding entrainment of circadian rhythms is a central goal of chronobiology. Many factors, such as period, amplitude, Zeitgeber strength, and daylength, govern entrainment ranges and phases of entrainment. We have tested whether simple amplitude-phase models can provide insight into the control of entrainment phases. Using global optimization, we derived conceptual models with just three free parameters (period, amplitude, and relaxation rate) that reproduce known phenotypic features of vertebrate clocks: phase response curves (PRCs) with relatively small phase shifts, fast re-entrainment after jet lag, and seasonal variability to track light onset or offset. Since optimization found multiple sets of model parameters, we could study this model ensemble to gain insight into the underlying design principles. We found complex associations between model parameters and entrainment features. Arnold onions of representative models visualize strong dependencies of entrainment on periods, relative Zeitgeber strength, and photoperiods. Our results support the use of oscillator theory as a framework for understanding the entrainment of circadian clocks.
| S-EPMC7199094 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The anti-malaria drug Artesunate (ART) shows strong anti-cancer effects in vitro; however, it shows only marginal treatment results in clinical cancer studies. In this study, ART was tested in preclinical 3D cancer models of increasing complexity using clinically relevant peak plasma concentrations to obtain further information for translation into clinical use. ART reduced cell viability in HCT-116 and HT-29 derived cancer spheroids (p < 0.001). HCT-116 spheroids responded dose-dependently, while HT-29 spheroids were affected more strongly by ART than by cytostatics (p < 0.001). HCT-116 spheroids were chemo-sensitized by ART (p < 0.001). In patient-derived cancer spheroids (PDCS), ART led to inhibition of cell viability in 84.62% of the 39 samples tested, with a mean inhibitory effect of 13.87%. Viability reduction of ART was 2-fold weaker than cytostatic monotherapies (p = 0.028). Meanwhile, tumor-stimulation of up to 16.30% was observed in six (15.38%) PDCS-models. In 15 PDCS samples, ART modulated chemotherapies in combined testing, eight of which showed chemo-stimulation (maximum of 36.90%) and seven chemo-inhibition (up to 16.95%). These results demonstrate that ART's anti-cancer efficacy depends on the complexity of the tumor model used. This emphasizes that cancer treatment with ART should be evaluated before treatment of the individual patient to ensure its benefits and prevent unwanted effects.
| S-EPMC10178545 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Statistical models are simple mathematical rules derived from empirical data describing the association between an outcome and several explanatory variables. In a typical modeling situation statistical analysis often involves a large number of potential explanatory variables and frequently only partial subject-matter knowledge is available. Therefore, selecting the most suitable variables for a model in an objective and practical manner is usually a non-trivial task. We briefly revisit the purposeful variable selection procedure suggested by Hosmer and Lemeshow which combines significance and change-in-estimate criteria for variable selection and critically discuss the change-in-estimate criterion. We show that using a significance-based threshold for the change-in-estimate criterion reduces to a simple significance-based selection of variables, as if the change-in-estimate criterion is not considered at all. Various extensions to the purposeful variable selection procedure are suggested. We propose to use backward elimination augmented with a standardized change-in-estimate criterion on the quantity of interest usually reported and interpreted in a model for variable selection. Augmented backward elimination has been implemented in a SAS macro for linear, logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression. The algorithm and its implementation were evaluated by means of a simulation study. Augmented backward elimination tends to select larger models than backward elimination and approximates the unselected model up to negligible differences in point estimates of the regression coefficients. On average, regression coefficients obtained after applying augmented backward elimination were less biased relative to the coefficients of correctly specified models than after backward elimination. In summary, we propose augmented backward elimination as a reproducible variable selection algorithm that gives the analyst more flexibility in adopting model selection to a specific statistical modeling situation.
| S-EPMC4240713 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The visual processing of behaviorally relevant stimuli is enhanced through top-down attentional feedback. One possibility is that feedback targets early visual areas first and the attentional enhancement builds up at progressively later stages of the visual hierarchy. An alternative possibility is that the feedback targets the higher-order areas first and the attentional effects are communicated "backward" to early visual areas. Here, we compared the magnitude and latency of attentional enhancement of firing rates in V1, V2, and V4 in the same animals performing the same task. We found a reverse order of attentional effects, such that attentional enhancement was larger and earlier in V4 and smaller and later in V1, with intermediate results in V2. These results suggest that attentional mechanisms operate via feedback from higher-order areas to lower-order ones.
| S-EPMC2806732 | biostudies-literature