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Control fast or control smart: When should invading pathogens be controlled?

ABSTRACT: The intuitive response to an invading pathogen is to start disease management as rapidly as possible, since this would be expected to minimise the future impacts of disease. However, since more spread data become available as an outbreak unfolds, processes underpinning pathogen transmission can almost always be characterised more precisely later in epidemics. This allows the future progression of any outbreak to be forecast more accurately, and so enables control interventions to be targeted more precisely. There is also the chance that the outbreak might die out without any intervention whatsoever, making prophylactic control unnecessary. Optimal decision-making involves continuously balancing these potential benefits of waiting against the possible costs of further spread. We introduce a generic, extensible data-driven algorithm based on parameter estimation and outbreak simulation for making decisions in real-time concerning when and how to control an invading pathogen. The Control Smart Algorithm (CSA) resolves the trade-off between the competing advantages of controlling as soon as possible and controlling later when more information has become available. We show-using a generic mathematical model representing the transmission of a pathogen of agricultural animals or plants through a population of farms or fields-how the CSA allows the timing and level of deployment of vaccination or chemical control to be optimised. In particular, the algorithm outperforms simpler strategies such as intervening when the outbreak size reaches a pre-specified threshold, or controlling when the outbreak has persisted for a threshold length of time. This remains the case even if the simpler methods are fully optimised in advance. Our work highlights the potential benefits of giving careful consideration to the question of when to start disease management during emerging outbreaks, and provides a concrete framework to allow policy-makers to make this decision.

SUBMITTER: Thompson RN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5833286 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Control fast or control smart: When should invading pathogens be controlled?

Thompson Robin N RN Gilligan Christopher A CA Cunniffe Nik J NJ

PLoS computational biology 20180216 2

The intuitive response to an invading pathogen is to start disease management as rapidly as possible, since this would be expected to minimise the future impacts of disease. However, since more spread data become available as an outbreak unfolds, processes underpinning pathogen transmission can almost always be characterised more precisely later in epidemics. This allows the future progression of any outbreak to be forecast more accurately, and so enables control interventions to be targeted mor ...[more]

PMID: 29451878

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Project description:New invading pathogen strains must compete with endemic pathogen strains to emerge and spread. As disease control measures are often non-specific, that is, they do not distinguish between strains, applying control not only affects the invading pathogen strain but the endemic as well. We hypothesize that the control of the invasive strain could be compromised due to the non-specific nature of the control.A spatially explicit model, describing the East African cassava mosaic virus-Uganda strain (EACMV-UG) outbreak, is used to evaluate methods of controlling both disease incidence and spread of invading pathogen strains in pathosystems with and without an endemic pathogen strain present.We find that while many newly introduced or intensified control measures (such as resistant cultivars or roguing) decrease the expected incidence, they have the unintended consequence of increasing, or at least not reducing, the speed with which the invasive pathogen spreads geographically. We identify the controls that cause this effect and methods in which these controls may be applied to prevent it.We found that the spatial spread of the invading strain is chiefly governed by the incidence at the wave front. Control can therefore be applied, or intensified, once the wave front has passed without increasing the pathogen's rate of spread.When trade of planting material occurs, it is possible that the planting material is already infected. The only forms of control in this study that reduces the speed of geographic spread, regardless of the presence of an endemic strain, are those that reduce the amount of trade and the distance over which trade takes place. Synthesis and applications. The best control strategy depends on the presence of competing endemic strains. Applying or intensifying the control can slow the rate of spread when absent but increase it if present. Imposing trade restrictions before the epidemic has reached a given area and intensifying other control methods only when the wave front has passed is the most effective way of both slowing down spread and controlling incidence when a competing endemic strain is present and is the safest approach when its presence is unknown.

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Control fast or control smart: When should invading pathogens be controlled?

Publications

Control fast or control smart: When should invading pathogens be controlled?

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