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Derivation and Internal Validation of a Mortality Prediction Tool for Initial Survivors of Pediatric In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:To develop a clinical prediction score for predicting mortality in children following return of spontaneous circulation after in-hospital cardiac arrest. DESIGN:Observational study using prospectively collected data. SETTING:This was an analysis using data from the Get With The Guidelines-Resuscitation registry between January 2000 and December 2015. PATIENTS:Pediatric patients (< 18 yr old) who achieved return of spontaneous circulation. INTERVENTIONS:None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Patients were divided into a derivation (3/4) and validation (1/4) cohort. A prediction score was developed using a multivariable logistic regression model with backward selection. Patient and event characteristics for the derivation cohort (n = 3,893) and validation cohort (n = 1,297) were similar. Seventeen variables associated with the outcome remained in the final reduced model after backward elimination. Predictors of in-hospital mortality included age, illness category, pre-event characteristics, arrest location, day of the week, nonshockable pulseless rhythm, duration of chest compressions, and interventions in place at time of arrest. The C-statistic for the final score was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.75-0.78) in the derivation cohort and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.79) in the validation cohort. The expected versus observed mortality plot indicated good calibration in both the derivation and validation cohorts. The score showed a stepwise increase in mortality with an observed mortality of less than 15% for scores 0-9 and greater than 80% for scores greater than or equal to 25. The model also performed well for neurologic outcome and in sensitivity analyses for events within the past 5 years and for patients with or without a pulse at the onset of chest compressions. CONCLUSIONS:We developed and internally validated a prediction score for initial survivors of pediatric in-hospital cardiac arrest. This prediction score may be useful for prognostication following cardiac arrest, stratifying patients for research, and guiding quality improvement initiatives.

SUBMITTER: Holmberg MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5834369 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Derivation and Internal Validation of a Mortality Prediction Tool for Initial Survivors of Pediatric In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest.

Holmberg Mathias J MJ Moskowitz Ari A Raymond Tia T TT Berg Robert A RA Nadkarni Vinay M VM Topjian Alexis A AA Grossestreuer Anne V AV Donnino Michael W MW Andersen Lars W LW

Pediatric critical care medicine : a journal of the Society of Critical Care Medicine and the World Federation of Pediatric Intensive and Critical Care Societies 20180301 3

<h4>Objectives</h4>To develop a clinical prediction score for predicting mortality in children following return of spontaneous circulation after in-hospital cardiac arrest.<h4>Design</h4>Observational study using prospectively collected data.<h4>Setting</h4>This was an analysis using data from the Get With The Guidelines-Resuscitation registry between January 2000 and December 2015.<h4>Patients</h4>Pediatric patients (< 18 yr old) who achieved return of spontaneous circulation.<h4>Interventions< ...[more]

PMID: 29239980

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Project description:Accurate estimation of favorable neurological survival after in-hospital cardiac arrest could provide critical information for physicians, patients, and families.Within the Get With the Guidelines-Resuscitation registry, we identified 42,957 patients from 551 hospitals admitted between January 2000 and October 2009 who were successfully resuscitated from an in-hospital cardiac arrest. A simple prediction tool for favorable neurological survival in patients successfully resuscitated from an in-hospital cardiac arrest was developed using multivariate logistic regression, with two-thirds of the sample randomly selected as the derivation cohort and one-third as the validation cohort. Favorable neurological status was defined as the absence of severe neurological deficits (cerebral performance category score of ?2).Rates of favorable neurological survival were similar in the derivation cohort (7052 patients [24.6%]) and validation cohort (3510 patients [24.5%]). Eleven variables were associated with favorable neurological survival: younger age, initial cardiac arrest rhythm of ventricular fibrillation or pulseless ventricular tachycardia with a defibrillation time of 2 minutes or less, baseline neurological status without disability, arrest location in a monitored unit, shorter duration of resuscitation, and absence of mechanical ventilation, renal insufficiency, hepatic insufficiency, sepsis, malignant disease, and hypotension prior to the arrest. The model had excellent discrimination (C statistic of 0.80 for both the derivation and validation cohorts) and calibration. The prediction tool demonstrated the ability to identify patients across a wide range of rates of favorable neurological survival: patients in the top decile had a 70.7% probability of this outcome, whereas patients in the bottom decile had a 2.8% probability.Among successfully resuscitated patients with an in-hospital cardiac arrest, a simple, bedside prediction tool provides robust estimates of the probability of favorable neurological survival. This tool permits accurate prognostication after cardiac arrest for physicians, patients, and families.

Project description:Little is known about the long-term outcomes in elderly survivors of in-hospital cardiac arrest. We determined rates of long-term survival and readmission among survivors of in-hospital cardiac arrest and examined whether these outcomes differed according to demographic characteristics and neurologic status at discharge.We linked data from a national registry of inpatient cardiac arrests with Medicare files and identified 6972 adults, 65 years of age or older, who were discharged from the hospital after surviving an in-hospital cardiac arrest between 2000 and 2008. Predictors of 1-year survival and of readmission to the hospital were examined.One year after hospital discharge, 58.5% of the patients were alive, and 34.4% had not been readmitted to the hospital. The risk-adjusted rate of 1-year survival was lower among older patients than among younger patients (63.7%, 58.6%, and 49.7% among patients 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and ?85 years of age, respectively; P<0.001), among men than among women (58.6% vs. 60.9%, P=0.03), and among black patients than among white patients (52.5% vs. 60.4%, P=0.001). The risk-adjusted rate of 1-year survival was 72.8% among patients with mild or no neurologic disability at discharge, as compared with 61.1% among patients with moderate neurologic disability, 42.2% among those with severe neurologic disability, and 10.2% among those in a coma or vegetative state (P<0.001 for all comparisons). Moreover, 1-year readmission rates were higher among patients who were black, those who were women, and those who had substantial neurologic disability (P<0.05 for all comparisons). These differences in survival and readmission rates persisted at 2 years. At 3 years, the rate of survival among survivors of in-hospital cardiac arrest was similar to that of patients who had been hospitalized with heart failure and were discharged alive (43.5% and 44.9%, respectively; risk ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.95 to 1.02; P=0.35).Among elderly survivors of in-hospital cardiac arrest, nearly 60% were alive at 1 year, and the rate of 3-year survival was similar to that among patients with heart failure. Survival and readmission rates differed according to the demographic characteristics of the patients and neurologic status at discharge. (Funded by the American Heart Association and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.).

Project description:To analyze functional performance measures collected prospectively during the conduct of a clinical trial that enrolled children (up to age 18 yr old), resuscitated after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, who were at high risk of poor outcomes.Children with Glasgow Motor Scale score less than 5, within 6 hours of resuscitation, were enrolled in a clinical trial that compared two targeted temperature management interventions (THAPCA-OH, NCT00878644). The primary outcome, 12-month survival with Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scale, second edition, score greater or equal to 70, did not differ between groups.Thirty-eight North American PICUs.Two hundred ninety-five children were enrolled; 270 of 295 had baseline Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scale, second edition, scores greater or equal to 70; 87 of 270 survived 1 year.Targeted temperatures were 33.0°C and 36.8°C for hypothermia and normothermia groups.Baseline measures included Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scale, second edition, Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category, and Pediatric Overall Performance Category. Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category and Pediatric Overall Performance Category were rescored at hospital discharges; all three were scored at 3 and 12 months. In survivors with baseline Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scale, second edition scores greater or equal to 70, we evaluated relationships of hospital discharge Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category with 3- and 12-month scores and between 3- and 12-month Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scale, second edition, scores. Hospital discharge Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category scores strongly predicted 3- and 12-month Pediatric Cerebral Performance Category (r = 0.82 and 0.79; p < 0.0001) and Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scale, second edition, scores (r = -0.81 and -0.77; p < 0.0001). Three-month Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scale, second edition, scores strongly predicted 12-month performance (r = 0.95; p < 0.0001). Hypothermia treatment did not alter these relationships.In comatose children, with Glasgow Motor Scale score less than 5 in the initial hours after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest resuscitation, function scores at hospital discharge and at 3 months predicted 12-month performance well in the majority of survivors.

Project description:ObjectivesThe objective of this study was to associate ventilation rates during in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation with 1) arterial blood pressure during cardiopulmonary resuscitation and 2) survival outcomes.DesignProspective, multicenter observational study.SettingPediatric and pediatric cardiac ICUs of the Collaborative Pediatric Critical Care Research Network.PatientsIntubated children (≥ 37 wk gestation and < 19 yr old) who received at least 1 minute of cardiopulmonary resuscitation.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsArterial blood pressure and ventilation rate (breaths/min) were manually extracted from arterial line and capnogram waveforms. Guideline rate was defined as 10 ± 2 breaths/min; high ventilation rate as greater than or equal to 30 breaths/min in children less than 1 year old, and greater than or equal to 25 breaths/min in older children. The primary outcome was survival to hospital discharge. Regression models using Firth penalized likelihood assessed the association between ventilation rates and outcomes. Ventilation rates were available for 52 events (47 patients). More than half of patients (30/47; 64%) were less than 1 year old. Eighteen patients (38%) survived to discharge. Median event-level average ventilation rate was 29.8 breaths/min (interquartile range, 23.8-35.7). No event-level average ventilation rate was within guidelines; 30 events (58%) had high ventilation rates. The only significant association between ventilation rate and arterial blood pressure occurred in children 1 year old or older and was present for systolic blood pressure only (-17.8 mm Hg/10 breaths/min; 95% CI, -27.6 to -8.1; p < 0.01). High ventilation rates were associated with a higher odds of survival to discharge (odds ratio, 4.73; p = 0.029). This association was stable after individually controlling for location (adjusted odds ratio, 5.97; p = 0.022), initial rhythm (adjusted odds ratio, 3.87; p = 0.066), and time of day (adjusted odds ratio, 4.12; p = 0.049).ConclusionsIn this multicenter cohort, ventilation rates exceeding guidelines were common. Among the range of rates delivered, higher rates were associated with improved survival to hospital discharge.

Project description:ImportanceMany children with return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) following cardiac arrest (CA) experience acute kidney injury (AKI). The impact of therapeutic hypothermia on the epidemiology of post-CA AKI in children has not been fully investigated.ObjectiveThe study aims were to: 1) describe the prevalence of severe AKI in comatose children following out-of-hospital CA (OHCA), 2) identify risk factors for severe AKI, 3) evaluate the impact of therapeutic hypothermia on the prevalence of severe AKI, and 4) evaluate the association of severe AKI with survival and functional outcomes.DesignA post hoc secondary analysis of data from the Therapeutic Hypothermia after Pediatric Cardiac Arrest Out-of-Hospital (THAPCA-OH) trial.SettingThirty-six pediatric intensive care units in the United States and Canada.ParticipantsOf 282 eligible subjects with an initial creatinine obtained within 24 h of randomization, 148 were randomized to therapeutic hypothermia and 134 were randomized to therapeutic normothermia.Main outcomes and measuresPrimary outcome was prevalence of severe AKI, as defined by stage 2 and 3 Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) consensus definition; secondary outcome was survival with a favorable neurobehavioral outcome. For this study, risk factors and outcomes were compared between those with/without severe AKI.ResultsOf the 282 subjects enrolled, 180 (64%) developed AKI of which 117 (41% of all enrolled) developed severe AKI. Multivariable modeling found younger age, longer duration of chest compressions, higher lactate level at time of temperature intervention and higher number of vasoactive agents through day 1 of intervention associated with severe AKI. There was no difference in severe AKI between therapeutic hypothermia (39.9%) and therapeutic normothermia (43.3%) groups (p = 0.629). Survival was lower in those with severe AKI at 28 days (21% vs no severe AKI 49%, p < 0.001) and 12 months (21% vs no severe AKI 42%, p < 0.001). One year survival with favorable functional outcome was lower in those with severe AKI.Conclusions and relevanceSevere AKI occurs frequently in children with ROSC after OHCA, especially in younger children and those with higher initial lactates and hemodynamic support. Severe AKI was associated with worse survival and functional outcome. Therapeutic hypothermia did not reduce the incidence of severe AKI.

Project description:ObjectiveTo implement a standardized approach to characterize neurologic outcomes among 12-month survivors in the Therapeutic Hypothermia after Pediatric Cardiac Arrest (THAPCA) trials.MethodsTwo multicenter trials enrolled children age 48 hours to 18 years who remained comatose after cardiac arrest (CA) occurring out-of-hospital (THAPCA-OH, NCT00878644) or in-hospital (THAPCA-IH, NCT00880087); patients were randomized to therapeutic hypothermia or therapeutic normothermia. The primary outcome, survival with favorable 12-month neurobehavioral outcome (Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales [VABS-II]), did not differ between treatment groups in either trial. Neurologists examined 181 12-month survivors, described findings using the novel semi-quantitative Pediatric Resuscitation after Cardiac Arrest (PRCA) form, and rated findings in 6 domains; scores ranged from 0 (no deficits) to 21 (maximal deficits). PRCA scores were compared with 12-month VABS-II scores and cognitive scores.ResultsNeurologic outcome PRCA scores were classified as no/minimal impairment, PRCA 0-3, 81/179 (45%); mild impairment, PRCA 4-7, 24/179 (13%); moderate impairment, PRCA 8-11, 15/179 (8%); severe impairment, PRCA 12-16, 20/179 (11%); profound impairment, PRCA 17-21, 39/179 (21%) (2/181 incomplete). VABS-II scores correlated strongly with PRCA category (r = -0.88, p < 0.0001, Pearson correlation coefficient) and cognitive scores (r = -0.72, p < 0.0001). Factors associated with poor outcomes included out-of-hospital CA, seizure recognition in the early postarrest period, and poor neurologic status at hospital discharge.ConclusionThe PRCA provides a robust method for depicting neurologic outcomes after acute encephalopathy caused by CA in children. It provides a global semiquantitative rating of neurologic impairment and domain-specific impairment. The strong correlation with well-established neurobehavioral outcome measures supports its validity over a broad age range and wide spectrum of outcomes.

Dataset Information

Derivation and Internal Validation of a Mortality Prediction Tool for Initial Survivors of Pediatric In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest.

Publications

Derivation and Internal Validation of a Mortality Prediction Tool for Initial Survivors of Pediatric In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest.

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