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Model projections on the impact of HCV treatment in the prevention of HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Europe.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND & AIMS:Prevention of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) is critical for eliminating HCV in Europe. We estimated the impact of current and scaled-up HCV treatment with and without scaling up opioid substitution therapy (OST) and needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) across Europe over the next 10?years. METHODS:We collected data on PWID HCV treatment rates, PWID prevalence, HCV prevalence, OST, and NSP coverage from 11 European settings. We parameterised an HCV transmission model to setting-specific data that project chronic HCV prevalence and incidence among PWID. RESULTS:At baseline, chronic HCV prevalence varied from <25% (Slovenia/Czech Republic) to >55% (Finland/Sweden), and <2% (Amsterdam/Hamburg/Norway/Denmark/Sweden) to 5% (Slovenia/Czech Republic) of chronically infected PWID were treated annually. The current treatment rates using new direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) may achieve observable reductions in chronic prevalence (38-63%) in 10?years in Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Amsterdam. Doubling the HCV treatment rates will reduce prevalence in other sites (12-24%; Belgium/Denmark/Hamburg/Norway/Scotland), but is unlikely to reduce prevalence in Sweden and Finland. Scaling-up OST and NSP to 80% coverage with current treatment rates using DAAs could achieve observable reductions in HCV prevalence (18-79%) in all sites. Using DAAs, Slovenia and Amsterdam are projected to reduce incidence to 2 per 100 person years or less in 10?years. Moderate to substantial increases in the current treatment rates are required to achieve the same impact elsewhere, from 1.4 to 3 times (Czech Republic and France), 5-17 times (France, Scotland, Hamburg, Norway, Denmark, Belgium, and Sweden), to 200 times (Finland). Scaling-up OST and NSP coverage to 80% in all sites reduces treatment scale-up needed by 20-80%. CONCLUSIONS:The scale-up of HCV treatment and other interventions is needed in most settings to minimise HCV transmission among PWID in Europe. LAY SUMMARY:Measuring the amount of HCV in the population of PWID is uncertain. To reduce HCV infection to minimal levels in Europe will require scale-up of both HCV treatment and other interventions that reduce injecting risk (especially OST and provision of sterile injecting equipment).

SUBMITTER: Fraser H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5841161 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Model projections on the impact of HCV treatment in the prevention of HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Europe.

Fraser Hannah H Martin Natasha K NK Brummer-Korvenkontio Henrikki H Carrieri Patrizia P Dalgard Olav O Dillon John J Goldberg David D Hutchinson Sharon S Jauffret-Roustide Marie M Kåberg Martin M Matser Amy A AA Matičič Mojca M Midgard Havard H Mravcik Viktor V Øvrehus Anne A Prins Maria M Reimer Jens J Robaeys Geert G Schulte Bernd B van Santen Daniela K DK Zimmermann Ruth R Vickerman Peter P Hickman Matthew M

Journal of hepatology 20180108 3

<h4>Background & aims</h4>Prevention of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) is critical for eliminating HCV in Europe. We estimated the impact of current and scaled-up HCV treatment with and without scaling up opioid substitution therapy (OST) and needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) across Europe over the next 10 years.<h4>Methods</h4>We collected data on PWID HCV treatment rates, PWID prevalence, HCV prevalence, OST, and NSP coverage from 11 European setti ...[more]

PMID: 29080808

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Project description:BackgroundPeople who inject drugs (PWID) experience high incarceration rates, with current/recent incarceration being associated with increased hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission. We assess the contribution of incarceration to HCV transmission amongst PWID in Perry County (PC), Kentucky, USA, and the impact of scaling-up community and in-prison opioid substitution therapy (OST), including the potential for reducing incarceration.MethodsA dynamic model of incarceration and HCV transmission amongst PWID was calibrated in a Bayesian framework to epidemiological and incarceration data from PC, incorporating an empirically estimated 2.8-fold (95%CI: 1.36-5.77) elevated HCV acquisition risk amongst currently incarcerated or recently released (<6 months) PWID compared to other PWID. We projected the percentage of new HCV infections that would be prevented among PWID over 2020-2030 if incarceration no longer elevated HCV transmission risk, if needle and syringe programmes (NSP) and OST are scaled-up, and/or if drug use was decriminalized (incarceration/reincarceration rates are halved) with 50% of PWID that would have been imprisoned being diverted onto OST. We assume OST reduces reincarceration by 10-42%.ResultsOver 2020-2030, removing the effect of incarceration on HCV transmission could prevent 42.7% (95% credibility interval: 15.0-67.4%) of new HCV infections amongst PWID. Conversely, scaling-up community OST and NSP to 50% coverage could prevent 28.5% (20.0-37.4%) of new infections, with this increasing to 32.7% (24.5-41.2%) if PWID are retained on OST upon incarceration, 36.4% (27.7-44.9%) if PWID initiate OST in prison, and 45.3% (35.9-54.1%) if PWID are retained on OST upon release. decriminalization (with diversion to OST) could further increase this impact, preventing 56.8% (45.3-64.5%) of new infections. The impact of these OST interventions decreases by 2.1-28.6% if OST does not reduce incarceration.ConclusionIncarceration is likely to be an important contributor to HCV transmission amongst PWID in PC. Prison-based OST could be an important intervention for reducing this risk.

Project description:Background and aimsPeople who inject drugs (PWID) experience high incarceration rates, and previous incarceration is associated with elevated hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk. In Scotland, national survey data indicate lower HCV incidence in prison than the community (4.3 versus 7.3 per 100 person-years), but a 2.3-fold elevated transmission risk among recently released (< 6 months) PWID. We evaluated the contribution of incarceration to HCV transmission among PWID and the impact of prison-related prevention interventions, including scaling-up direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in prison.DesignDynamic mathematical modelling of incarceration and HCV transmission, using approximate Bayesian computation for model calibration.SettingScotland, UK.ParticipantsA simulated population of PWID.MeasurementsPopulation-attributable fraction (PAF) of incarceration to HCV transmission among PWID. Decrease in HCV incidence and chronic prevalence due to current levels of prison opiate substitution therapy (OST; 57% coverage) and HCV treatment, as well as scaling-up DAAs in prison and/or preventing the elevated risk associated with prison release.FindingsIncarceration contributes 27.7% [PAF; 95% credible interval (CrI) -3.1 to 51.1%] of HCV transmission among PWID in Scotland. During the next 15 years, current HCV treatment rates (10.4/6.8 per 1000 incarcerated/community PWID annually), with existing prison OST, could reduce incidence and chronic prevalence among all PWID by a relative 10.7% (95% CrI = 8.4-13.3%) and 9.7% (95% CrI = 7.7-12.1%), respectively. Conversely, without prison OST, HCV incidence and chronic prevalence would decrease by 3.1% (95% CrI = -28.5 to 18.0%) and 4.7% (95% CrI = -11.3 to 14.5%). Additionally, preventing the heightened risk among recently released PWID could reduce incidence and chronic prevalence by 45.0% (95% CrI = 19.7-57.5%) and 33.3% (95% CrI = 15.6-43.6%) or scaling-up prison HCV treatments to 80% of chronic PWID prison entrants with sufficient sentences (>16 weeks) could reduce incidence and prevalence by 45.6% (95% CrI = 38.0-51.3%) and 45.5% (95% CrI = 39.3-51.0%), respectively.ConclusionsIncarceration and the elevated transmission risk following prison release can contribute significantly to hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs. Scaling-up hepatitis C virus treatment in prison can provide important prevention benefits.

Project description:IntroductionPeople who inject drugs (PWID) in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, have a high prevalence of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV). While needle and syringe programmes (NSP), opioid agonist therapy (OAT) and anti-retroviral therapy (ART) are available in Tanzania, their coverage is sub-optimal. We assess the impact of existing and scaled up harm reduction (HR) interventions on HIV and HCV transmission among PWID in Dar es Salaam.MethodsAn HIV and HCV transmission model among PWID in Tanzania was calibrated to data over 2006-2018 on HIV (∼30% and ∼67% prevalence in males and females in 2011) and HCV prevalence (∼16% in 2017), numbers on HR interventions (5254 ever on OAT in 2018, 766-1479 accessing NSP in 2017) and ART coverage (63.1% in 2015). We evaluated the impact of existing interventions in 2019 and impact by 2030 of scaling-up the coverage of OAT (to 50% of PWID), NSP (75%, both combined termed "full HR") and ART (81% with 90% virally suppressed) from 2019, reducing sexual HIV transmission by 50%, and/or HCV-treating 10% of PWID infected with HCV annually.ResultsThe model projects HIV and HCV prevalence of 19.0% (95% credibility interval: 16.4-21.2%) and 41.0% (24.4-49.0%) in 2019, respectively. For HIV, 24.6% (13.6-32.6%) and 70.3% (59.3-77.1%) of incident infections among male and female PWID are sexually transmitted, respectively. Due to their low coverage (22.8% for OAT, 16.3% for NSP in 2019), OAT and NSP averted 20.4% (12.9-24.7%) of HIV infections and 21.7% (17.0-25.2%) of HCV infections in 2019. Existing ART (68.5% coverage by 2019) averted 48.1% (29.7-64.3%) of HIV infections in 2019. Scaling up to full HR will reduce HIV and HCV incidence by 62.6% (52.5-74.0%) and 81.4% (56.7-81.4%), respectively, over 2019-2030; scaled up ART alongside full HR will decrease HIV incidence by 66.8% (55.6-77.5%), increasing to 81.5% (73.7-87.5%) when sexual risk is also reduced. HCV-treatment alongside full HR will decrease HCV incidence by 92.4% (80.7-95.8%) by 2030.ConclusionsCombination interventions, including sexual risk reduction and HCV treatment, are needed to eliminate HCV and HIV among PWID in Tanzania.

Project description:IntroductionPeople who inject drugs (PWID) in Ukraine have high prevalences of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) provide PWID with needles/syringes, condoms, HIV/HCV testing and linkage to opioid agonist treatment (OAT) and antiretroviral therapy (ART). We estimated their impact and cost-effectiveness among PWID.MethodsA dynamic HIV and HCV transmission model among PWID was calibrated using data from four national PWID surveys (2011-2017). The model assumed 37-49% coverage of NGOs among community PWID, with NGO contact reducing injecting risk and increasing condom use and recruitment onto OAT and ART. We estimated the historic (1997-2021) and future (2022-2030, compared to no NGO activities from 2022) impact of NGOs in terms of the proportion of HIV/HCV infections averted and changes in HIV/HCV incidence. We estimated the future impact of scaling-up NGOs to 80% coverage with/without scale-up in OAT (5-20%) and ART (64-81%). We estimated the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted of current NGO provision over 2022-2041 compared to NGO activities stopping over 2022-2026, but restarting after that till 2041. We assumed average unit costs of US$80-90 per person-year of NGO contact for PWID.ResultsWith existing coverage levels of NGOs, the model projects that NGOs have averted 20.0% (95% credibility interval: 13.3-26.1) and 9.6% (5.1-14.1) of new HIV and HCV infections among PWID over 1997-2021, respectively, and will avert 31.8% (19.6-39.9) and 13.7% (7.5-18.1) of HIV and HCV infections over 2022-2030. With NGO scale-up, HIV and HCV incidence will decrease by 54.2% (43.3-63.8) and 30.2% (20.5-36.2) over 2022-2030, or 86.7% (82.9-89.3) and 39.8% (31.4-44.8) if OAT and ART are also scaled-up. Without NGOs, HIV and HCV incidence will increase by 51.6% (23.6-76.3) and 13.4% (4.8-21.9) over 2022-2030. Current NGO provision over 2022-2026 will avert 102,736 (77,611-137,512) DALYs when tracked until 2041 (discounted 3% annually), and cost US$912 (702-1222) per DALY averted; cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$1548/DALY averted (0.5xGDP).ConclusionsNGO activities have a crucial preventative impact among PWID in Ukraine which should be scaled-up to help achieve HIV and HCV elimination. Disruptions could have a substantial detrimental impact.

Project description:AimsTo examine the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment of people who inject drugs (PWID), combined with medication-assisted treatment (MAT) and syringe-service programs (SSP), to tackle the increasing HCV epidemic in the United States.DesignHCV transmission and disease progression models with cost-effectiveness analysis using a health-care perspective.SettingRural Perry County, KY (PC) and urban San Francisco, CA (SF), USA. Compared with PC, SF has a greater proportion of PWID with access to MAT or SSP. HCV treatment of PWID is negligible in both settings.ParticipantsPWID data were collected between 1998 and 2015 from Social Networks Among Appalachian People, U Find Out, Urban Health Study and National HIV Behavioral Surveillance System studies.Interventions and comparatorThree intervention scenarios modeled: baseline-existing SSP and MAT coverage with HCV screening and treatment with direct-acting antiviral for ex-injectors only as per standard of care; intervention 1-scale-up of SSP and MAT without changes to treatment; and intervention 2-scale-up as intervention 1 combined with HCV screening and treatment for current PWID.MeasurementsIncremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and uncertainty using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Benefits were measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).FindingsFor both settings, intervention 2 is preferred to intervention 1 and the appropriate comparator for intervention 2 is the baseline scenario. Relative to baseline, for PC intervention 2 averts 1852 more HCV infections, increases QALYS by 3095, costs $21.6 million more and has an ICER of $6975/QALY. For SF, intervention 2 averts 36 473 more HCV infections, increases QALYs by 7893, costs $872 million more and has an ICER of $11 044/QALY. The cost-effectiveness of intervention 2 was robust to several sensitivity analysis.ConclusionsHepatitis C screening and treatment for people who inject drugs, combined with medication-assisted treatment and syringe-service programs, is a cost-effective strategy for reducing hepatitis C burden in the United States.

Dataset Information

Model projections on the impact of HCV treatment in the prevention of HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Europe.

Publications

Model projections on the impact of HCV treatment in the prevention of HCV transmission among people who inject drugs in Europe.

Similar Datasets

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