Dataset Information

Early Recurrence of First Unprovoked Seizures in Children.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:The risk of early seizure recurrences after first unprovoked seizures in children is largely unknown. We aimed to determine the rate of seizure recurrence within 14 days of first unprovoked seizures in children and identify associated risk factors. Secondarily, we aimed to determine the risk of recurrence at 48 hours and 4 months. METHODS:We conducted a secondary analysis of a multicenter cohort study of children 29 days to 18 years with first unprovoked seizures. Emergency department (ED) clinicians completed standardized histories and physical examinations. The primary outcome, recurrent seizure at 14 days, and the secondary outcomes, recurrence at 48 hours and 4 months, were assessed by telephone follow-up and medical record review. For each recurrence time point, we excluded those patients for whom no seizure had recurred but chronic antiepileptic drugs had been initiated. RESULTS:A total of 475 patients were enrolled in the parent study. Of evaluable patients for this secondary analysis, 26 of 392 (6.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.4%-9.6%) had recurrences within 48 hours of the incident seizures, 58 of 366 (15.8%, 95% CI = 12.3%-20.0%) had recurrences within 14 days, and 107 of 340 (31.5%, 95% CI = 26.6%-36.7%) had recurrences within 4 months. On logistic regression analysis, age younger than 3 years was independently associated with a higher risk of 14-day recurrence (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 2.1, 95% CI = 1.2-3.7; p = 0.01). Having had more than one seizure within the 24 hours prior to ED presentation was independently associated with a higher risk of seizure recurrence at 48 hours (adjusted OR = 4.3, 95% CI = 1.9-9.8; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS:Risk of seizure recurrence 14 days after first unprovoked seizures in children is substantial, with younger children at higher risk. Prompt completion of an electroencephalogram and evaluation by a neurologist is appropriate for these children.

SUBMITTER: Goldberg LR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5842104 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Early Recurrence of First Unprovoked Seizures in Children.

Goldberg Leah R LR Kernie Catherine G CG Lillis Kathleen K Bennett Jonathan J Conners Gregory G Macias Charles G CG Callahan James J Akman Cigdem C Allen Hauser W W Kuppermann Nathan N Dayan Peter S PS

Academic emergency medicine : official journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine 20171128 3

<h4>Objectives</h4>The risk of early seizure recurrences after first unprovoked seizures in children is largely unknown. We aimed to determine the rate of seizure recurrence within 14 days of first unprovoked seizures in children and identify associated risk factors. Secondarily, we aimed to determine the risk of recurrence at 48 hours and 4 months.<h4>Methods</h4>We conducted a secondary analysis of a multicenter cohort study of children 29 days to 18 years with first unprovoked seizures. Emerg ...[more]

PMID: 29105207

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Increasing numbers of reports show the beneficial effects of listening to Mozart music in decreasing epileptiform discharges as well as seizure frequency in epileptic children. There has been no effective method to reduce seizure recurrence after the first unprovoked seizure until now. In this study, we investigated the effect of listening to Mozart K.448 in reducing the seizure recurrence rate in children with first unprovoked seizures. METHODS:Forty-eight children who experienced their first unprovoked seizure with epileptiform discharges were included in the study. They were randomly placed into treatment (n = 24) and control (n = 24) groups. Children in the treatment group listened to Mozart K.448 daily before bedtime for at least six months. Two patients in the treatment group were excluded from analysis due to discontinuation intervention. Finally, forty-six patients were analyzed. Most of these patients (89.1%) were idiopathic in etiology. Seizure recurrence rates and reduction of epileptiform discharges were compared. RESULTS:The average follow-up durations in the treatment and control groups were 18.6 ± 6.6 and 20.1 ± 5.1 months, respectively. The seizure recurrence rate was estimated to be significantly lower in the treatment group than the control group over 24 months (37.2% vs. 76.8%, p = 0.0109). Significant decreases in epileptiform discharges were also observed after 1, 2, and 6 months of listening to Mozart K.448 when compared with EEGs before listening to music. There were no significant differences in gender, mentality, seizure type, and etiology between the recurrence and non-recurrence groups. CONCLUSIONS:Although the case number was limited and control music was not performed in this study, the study revealed that listening to Mozart K.448 reduced the seizure recurrence rate and epileptiform discharges in children with first unprovoked seizures, especially of idiopathic etiology. We believe that Mozart K.448 could be a promising alternative treatment in patients with first unprovoked seizures and abnormal EEGs. Further large-scaled study should be conducted to confirm the effect. TRIAL REGISTRATION:NCT01892605, date: June-19-2013.

Project description:ObjectiveIn the United Kingdom and other European Union countries guidelines for driving following a first unprovoked seizure require the risk of another seizure in the next year to be less than 20%. Using data from one clinical trial, we previously developed a prognostic model to inform driving guidelines. The objective of this work is to externally validate our published model and demonstrate its generalisability.MethodsA cohort of 620 people with a first unprovoked seizure was used to develop the original model which included variables for aetiology, first degree relative with epilepsy, seizures only while asleep, electroencephalogram, computed tomography or magnetic resonance scan result, and treatment policy. The validation cohorts consisted of 274 (United Kingdom), 305 (Italy), and 847 (Australia) people. The model was evaluated using discrimination and calibration methods. A covariate, missing from the Italian dataset, was handled via five imputation methods. Following external validation, the model was fitted to a pooled population comprising all validation datasets and the development dataset. The model was stratified by dataset.ResultsThe model generalised relatively well. All methods of imputation performed fairly similarly. At six months, the risk of a seizure recurrence following a first ever seizure, based on the pooled datasets, is 15% (95% CI: (12% to 18%)) for patients who are treated immediately and 18% (95% CI: (15 to 21%)) otherwise. Individuals can be reliably stratified into risk groups according to the clinical factors included in the model.SignificanceOur prognostic model, used to inform driving regulations, has been validated and consequently has been proven as a valuable tool for predicting risk of seizure recurrence following a first seizure in people with various combinations of risk factors. Additionally, there is evidence to support one worldwide overall prognostic model for risk of second seizure following a first.

Project description:ObjectiveTo determine for how long after a first unprovoked seizure a driver must be seizure-free before the risk of recurrence in the next 12 months falls below 20%, enabling them to regain their driving licence.DesignRandomised controlled trial: Multicentre study of early Epilepsy and Single Seizures (MESS).SettingUK hospital outpatient clinics from 1 January 1993 to 31 December 2000.ParticipantsPeople entered MESS if they had had one or more unprovoked seizures and both the participant and the clinician were uncertain about the need to start antiepileptic drug treatment. The subset of people used for this analysis comprised participants aged at least 16 years with a single unprovoked seizure.Main outcome measureRisk of seizure recurrence in the 12 months after a seizure-free period of 6, 12, 18, or 24 months from the date of the first (index) seizure. Regression modelling was used to investigate how antiepileptic treatment and several clinical factors influence the risk of seizure recurrence.ResultsAt six months after the index seizure the risk of recurrence in the next 12 months for those who start antiepileptic drugs was significantly below 20% (unadjusted risk 14%, 95% confidence interval 10% to 18%). For patients who did not start treatment the risk estimate was less than 20% but the upper limit of the confidence interval was greater than 20% (18%, 13% to 23%). Multivariable analyses identified subgroups with a significantly greater than 20% risk of seizure recurrence in the 12 months after a six month seizure-free period, such as those with a remote symptomatic seizure with abnormal electroencephalogram results.ConclusionAfter a single unprovoked seizure this reanalysis of MESS provides estimates of seizure recurrence risks that will inform policy and guidance about regaining an ordinary driving licence. Further guidance is needed as to how such data should be utilised; in particular, whether a population approach should be taken with a focus on the unadjusted results or whether attempts should be made to individualise risk. Guidance is also required as to whether the focus should be on risk estimates only or on the confidence interval as well. If the focus is on the estimate only our unadjusted estimates suggest that treated and untreated patients are eligible to drive after being seizure-free for six months. If the focus is also on confidence intervals, direction is needed as to whether a conservative or liberal approach should be taken.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN98767960.

Project description:Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a chronic disease, with fatal recurrences occurring in 5% to 9% of patients, yet it is also one of the best examples of preventable disease. Prognostic models that utilise multiple prognostic factors (demographic, clinical and laboratory patient characteristics) in combination to predict individual outcome risk may allow the identification of patients who would benefit from long-term anticoagulation therapy, and conversely those that would benefit from stopping such therapy due to a low risk of recurrence. The study will systematically review the evidence on potential prognostic models for the recurrence of VTE or adverse outcomes following the cessation of therapy, and synthesise and summarise each model's prognostic value. The review has been registered with PROSPERO (CRD42013003494).Articles will be sought from the Cochrane library (CENTRAL, CDSR, DARE, HTA databases), MEDLINE and EMBASE. Trial registers will be searched for ongoing studies, and conference abstracts will be sought. Reference lists and subject experts will be utilised. No restrictions on language of publications will be applied. Studies of any design will be included if they examine, in patients ceasing therapy after at least three months' treatment with an oral anticoagulant therapy, whether more than one factor in combination is associated with the risk of VTE recurrence or another adverse outcome. Study quality will be assessed using appropriate guidelines for prognostic models. Prognostic models will be summarised qualitatively and, if tested in multiple validation studies, their predictive performance will be summarised using a random-effects meta-analysis model to account for any between-study heterogeneity.The results of the review will identify prognostic models for the risk of VTE recurrence or adverse outcome following cessation of therapy for a first unprovoked VTE. These will be informative for clinicians currently treating patients for a first unprovoked VTE and considering whether to stop treatment or not for particular individuals. The conclusions of the review will also inform the potential development of new prognostic models and clinical prediction rules to identify those at high or low risk of VTE recurrence or adverse outcome following a first unprovoked VTE.

Dataset Information

Early Recurrence of First Unprovoked Seizures in Children.

Publications

Early Recurrence of First Unprovoked Seizures in Children.

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