Dataset Information

Validation of a genetic risk score for atrial fibrillation: A prospective multicenter cohort study.

ABSTRACT: Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most commonly encountered arrhythmia and is associated with an elevated risk of stroke. Improving the identification of patients with the highest risk for AF to enable appropriate surveillance and treatment, if necessary, is critical to reducing AF-associated morbidity and mortality. Multiple common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are unequivocally associated with the lifetime risk of AF. In the current study we aimed to prospectively validate an AF genetic risk score (GRS) in previously undiagnosed patients at risk for AF.

Methods and findings: Individuals 40 years of age or older with 1 clinical risk factor for AF, presenting with symptoms of AF, or with a first diagnosis of AF, were enrolled for genetic testing and ambulatory cardiac rhythm monitoring with an adhesive patch monitor or a long-term Holter monitor (mean wear time 10 days 21 hours and 13 days 18 hours, respectively). An AF event was the first diagnosis of AF by ECG, patch monitor, or long-term Holter monitor. The AF GRS was determined for each participant based on the weighted contribution of 12 genetic risk loci. Of 904 participants, 85 manifested AF. Their mean age was 66.2 (SD 11.8) years; 38% of participants were male. Participants in the highest quintile of AF GRS were more likely (odds ratio 3.11; 95% CI 1.27-7.58; p = 0.01) to have had an AF event than participants in the lowest quintile after adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, BMI, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, and prior myocardial infarction. Study limitations included an ethnically homogenous population, a restricted rhythm monitoring period, and the evolving discovery of SNPs associated with AF.

Conclusions: Prospective assessment of a GRS for AF identified participants with elevated risk of AF beyond established clinical criteria. Accordingly, a GRS for AF could be incorporated into overall risk assessment to better identify patients at the highest risk of developing AF, although further testing in larger populations is needed to confirm these findings.

Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01970969.

SUBMITTER: Muse ED

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5849279 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Validation of a genetic risk score for atrial fibrillation: A prospective multicenter cohort study.

Muse Evan D ED Wineinger Nathan E NE Spencer Emily G EG Peters Melissa M Henderson Riley R Zhang Yunyue Y Barrett Paddy M PM Rivera Steven P SP Wohlgemuth Jay G JG Devlin James J JJ Shiffman Dov D Topol Eric J EJ

PLoS medicine 20180313 3

<h4>Background</h4>Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most commonly encountered arrhythmia and is associated with an elevated risk of stroke. Improving the identification of patients with the highest risk for AF to enable appropriate surveillance and treatment, if necessary, is critical to reducing AF-associated morbidity and mortality. Multiple common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are unequivocally associated with the lifetime risk of AF. In the current study we aimed to prospectively val ...[more]

PMID: 29534064

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Project description:AimWe aimed to investigate whether different measures of obesity could similarly predict atrial fibrillation, and whether the atrial fibrillation risk associated with obesity is dependent on presence of metabolic syndrome.Material and methodsWe performed our study in a population-based longitudinal cardiovascular study, comprising 1 924 men and 2 097 women, aged 60 years, from Stockholm. Body mass index, waist circumference, sagittal abdominal diameter and components of metabolic syndrome (systolic- and diastolic blood pressure, fasting glucose, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol) were recorded at baseline. Participants were classified by their body mass index (normal weight, overweight or obese), waist circumference (normal, semi-elevated or elevated), and according to presence of metabolic syndrome. Atrial fibrillation risk was estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression models, adjusted for common atrial fibrillation risk factors, expressed as HR and 95% CI.ResultsDuring a mean follow-up of 13.6 years, 285 incident atrial fibrillation cases were recorded. One standard deviation increment of each obesity measure was associated with increased atrial fibrillation risk as: body mass index 1.25 (1.12 - 1.40), waist circumference 1.35 (1.19 - 1.54) and sagittal abdominal diameter 1.28 (1.14 - 1.44). Compared to normal weight subjects without metabolic syndrome, increased atrial fibrillation risk was noted for overweight subjects with metabolic syndrome, 1.67 (1.16 - 2.41), obese subjects without metabolic syndrome, 1.75 (1.11 - 2.74) and obese subjects with metabolic syndrome, 1.92 (1.34 - 2.74). Compared to subjects with normal waist circumference without metabolic syndrome, subjects with elevated waist circumference and metabolic syndrome suffered increased atrial fibrillation risk, 2.03 (1.44 - 2.87).ConclusionsBody mass index, waist circumference and sagittal abdominal diameter could similarly predict atrial fibrillation. Obesity was associated with an increased atrial fibrillation risk regardless of metabolic syndrome, whereas overweight and elevated waist circumference was associated with increased atrial fibrillation risk only if metabolic syndrome was present.

Project description:BackgroundAtrial fibrillation contributes to substantial increases in morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop a risk score to predict individuals' absolute risk of developing the condition, and to provide a framework for researchers to assess new risk markers.MethodsWe assessed 4764 participants in the Framingham Heart Study from 8044 examinations (55% women, 45-95 years of age) undertaken between June, 1968, and September, 1987. Thereafter, participants were monitored for the first event of atrial fibrillation for a maximum of 10 years. Multivariable Cox regression identified clinical risk factors associated with development of atrial fibrillation in 10 years. Secondary analyses incorporated routine echocardiographic measurements (5152 participants, 7156 examinations) to reclassify the risk of atrial fibrillation and to assess whether these measurements improved risk prediction.Findings457 (10%) of the 4764 participants developed atrial fibrillation. Age, sex, body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, PR interval, clinically significant cardiac murmur, and heart failure were associated with atrial fibrillation and incorporated in a risk score (p<0.05, except body-mass index p=0.08), clinical model C statistic 0.78 (95% CI 0.76-0.80). Risk of atrial fibrillation in 10 years varied with age: more than 15% risk was recorded in 53 (1%) participants younger than 65 years, compared with 783 (27%) older than 65 years. Additional incorporation of echocardiographic measurements to enhance the risk prediction model only slightly improved the C statistic from 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.80) to 0.79 (0.77-0.82), p=0.005. Echocardiographic measurements did not improve risk reclassification (p=0.18).InterpretationFrom clinical factors readily accessible in primary care, our risk score could help to identify risk of atrial fibrillation for individuals in the community, assess technologies or markers for improvement of risk prediction, and target high-risk individuals for preventive measures.

Dataset Information

Validation of a genetic risk score for atrial fibrillation: A prospective multicenter cohort study.

Publications

Validation of a genetic risk score for atrial fibrillation: A prospective multicenter cohort study.

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