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Age of Acquiring Causal Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infections: Leveraging Simulation Models to Explore the Natural History of HPV-induced Cervical Cancer.

ABSTRACT: Although new human papillomavirus (HPV) infections can occur at all ages, the age at which women acquire their "causal" HPV infection that develops into cervical cancer is poorly understood and practically unobservable. We aimed to estimate the age distribution at which individuals acquired their causal HPV infection in the absence of HPV vaccination or screening to help guide the optimal use of both.Using an empirically calibrated mathematical model that simulates the natural history of cervical cancer, we estimated the cumulative number of causal HPV infections by age, stratified by HPV genotype (HPV16 vs. other HPV genotypes), and the direct age-specific reduction in cancer incidence for alternative vaccination initiation scenarios (i.e., age 9-45 years).Our model projected that among all cervical cancers, 50% and 75% of women acquired their causal HPV infection by ages 20.6 (range: 20.1-21.1) and 30.6 (range: 29.6-31.6) years, respectively. HPV16 infections were acquired at an earlier age. Assuming 95% efficacy against HPV16 and HPV18 infections, the direct reduction in lifetime risk of cervical cancer varied from 55% (53-56%) among women vaccinated at age 9 years to 6% (range: 6-7%) among women vaccinated at age 45 years. Similar patterns were observed for the second-generation vaccine.Although new HPV infections and precancers can occur throughout a woman's lifetime, only a small proportion are acquired in mid-adult women and are vaccine-preventable. Our simulations highlight the potential limitations of using surrogate endpoints for vaccine efficacy studies of mid-adult women to guide policy decisions for implementation.

SUBMITTER: Burger EA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5850533 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Age of Acquiring Causal Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infections: Leveraging Simulation Models to Explore the Natural History of HPV-induced Cervical Cancer.

Burger Emily A EA Kim Jane J JJ Sy Stephen S Castle Philip E PE

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 20170901 6

<h4>Background</h4>Although new human papillomavirus (HPV) infections can occur at all ages, the age at which women acquire their "causal" HPV infection that develops into cervical cancer is poorly understood and practically unobservable. We aimed to estimate the age distribution at which individuals acquired their causal HPV infection in the absence of HPV vaccination or screening to help guide the optimal use of both.<h4>Methods</h4>Using an empirically calibrated mathematical model that simul ...[more]

PMID: 28531261

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Project description:Multiple human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes often coexist within the cervical epithelia and are frequently detected together in various grades of the cervical neoplasia. To date, only a few reports exist on multiple HPV infections of HPV in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR). In the present study, we investigated the prevalence of High-Risk HPV (HR-HPV) genotypes and multiple infections. Cervical cytology samples were collected from 428 women who presented cervical abnormalities. Genotyping of HPV was performed by polymerase chain reaction-sequencing based typing (PCR-SBT) using consensus primers and specific primers. Of them, 166 samples were positive for HPV according to PCR results using the consensus primers. These samples contained cervical abnormalities enriched with inflammation (n = 107), cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) I (n = 19), CINII-III (n = 9) and cervical cancer (n = 31). Of the 166 HPV positive samples as determined by PCR analysis, 151 were further typed by PCR-SBT using 19 pairs of genotype-specific primers. Using this method, 17 different HR-HPV genotypes were identified. The most frequently observed HPV genotypes were HPV16 (44.0%, 73/166), 53 (28.9%, 48/166), 52 (25.3%, 42/166), 58 (22.3%, 37/166) and 35 (17.5%, 29/166). The proportions of single and multiple infections in the HPV-positive specimens were 34.9% and 65.1%, respectively. Multiple HPV types were most prevalent in the inflammatory state (63.0%), followed by cervical cancer (24.1%), CINI (11.1%), and CINII-III (1.9%). The results of our data analyses suggested that i) multiple HPV infection is not necessarily correlated with the severity of cervical abnormalities; and ii) among the multiple HPV infections, double infections combined with HPV16 is the most common. In addition, L1 full-length sequences of the top five high-risk HPV genotypes were amplified and sequenced. According to the L1 sequence of the epidemic genotypes that were amplified, we found that these genotypes contained the sequence point mutation, and that some of these genotypes further showed amino acid modifications. These results provide a basis for the construction of a polyvalent vaccine that is suitable for use in the XUAR, even in economically challenged communities located in China.

Project description:BackgroundWhile infections with human papillomavirus (HPV) are highly prevalent among sexually active young women in Uganda, information on incidence, clearance and their associated risk factors is sparse. To estimate the incidence, prevalence and determinants of HPV infections, we conducted a prospective follow-up study among 1,275 women aged 12-24 years at the time of recruitment. Women answered a questionnaire and underwent a pelvic examination at each visit to collect exfoliated cervical cells. The presence of 42 HPV types was evaluated in exfoliated cervical cells by a polymerase chain based (PCR) assay (SPF10-DEIA LiPA).ResultsThree hundred and eighty (380) of 1,275 (29.8%) women were followed up for a median time of 18.5 months (inter-quartile range 9.7-26.6). Sixty-nine (69) women had incident HPV infections during 226 person-years of follow-up reflecting an incidence rate of 30.5 per 100 person-years. Incident HPV infections were marginally associated with HIV positivity (RR = 2.8, 95% CI: 0.9 - 8.3). Clearance for HPV type-specific infections was frequent ranging between 42.3% and 100.0% for high- and 50% and 100% for low-risk types. Only 31.2% of women cleared all their infections. Clearance was associated with HIV negativity (Adjusted clearance = 0.2, 95% CI: 0.1 - 0.7) but not with age at study entry, lifetime number of sexual partners and multiplicity of infections. The prevalence of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSILs) was 53/365 (14.5%). None of the women had a high-grade cervical lesion (HSIL) or cancer. Twenty-two (22) of 150 (14.7%) HPV negative women at baseline developed incident LSIL during follow-up. The risk for LSIL appeared to be elevated among women with HPV 18-related types compared to women not infected with those types (RR = 3.5, 95% CI: 1.0 - 11.8).ConclusionsIncident HPV infections and type-specific HPV clearance were frequent among our study population of young women. These results underscore the need to vaccinate pre-adolescent girls before initiation of sexual activity.

Project description:BackgroundThe aim of the study was to investigate the risk of human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping particularly vaccine genotypes and multiple infections for cervical precancer and cancer, which might contribute to developing genotype-specific screening strategy and assessing potential effects of HPV vaccine.MethodsThe HPV genotypes were identified using the Seq HPV assay on self-collected samples. Hierarchical ranking of each genotype was performed according to positive predictive value (PPV) for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2/3 or worse (CIN2+/CIN3+). Multivariate logistic regression model was used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence interval (CI) of CIN2+ according to multiplicity of types and vaccine types.ResultsA total of 2811 HPV-positive women were analyzed. The five dominant HPV genotypes in high-grade lesions were 16/58/52/33/18. The overall ranking orders were HPV16/33/35/58/31/68/18/ 56/52/66/51/59/45/39 for CIN2+ and HPV16/33/31/58/45/66/52/18/35/56/51/68/59/39 for CIN3+. The risks of single infection versus co-infections with other types lower in the hierarchy having CIN2+ were not statistically significant for HPV16 (multiple infection vs. single infection: OR = 0.8, 95%CI = 0.6-1.1, P = 0.144) or other genotypes (P > 0.0036) after conservative Bonferroni correction. Whether HPV16 was present or not, the risks of single infection versus multiple infection with any number (2, ≥2, or ≥ 3) of types for CIN2+ were not significantly different. In addition, HPV31/33/45/52/58 covered by nonavalent vaccine added 27.5% of CIN2, 23.0% of CIN3, and 12.5% of cancer to the HPV16/18 genotyping. These genotype-groups were at significantly higher risks than genotypes not covered by nonavalent vaccine. Moreover, genotypes covered by nonavalent vaccine contributed to 85.2% of CIN2 lesions, 97.9% of CIN3 and 93.8% of cancers.ConclusionsPartial extended genotyping such as HPV33/31/58 but not multiplicity of HPV infections could serve as a promising triage for HPV-positive self-samples. Moreover, incidence rates of cervical cancer and precancer were substantial attributable to HPV genotypes covered by current nonavalent vaccination.

Project description:BackgroundHuman papillomavirus vaccines prevent human papillomavirus infection and cervical precancers. The impact of vaccinating women with a current infection or after treatment for an human papillomavirus-associated lesion is not fully understood.ObjectivesTo determine whether human papillomavirus-16/18 vaccination influences the outcome of infections present at vaccination and the rate of infection and disease after treatment of lesions.Study designWe included 1711 women (18-25 years) with carcinogenic human papillomavirus infection and 311 women of similar age who underwent treatment for cervical precancer and who participated in a community-based trial of the AS04-adjuvanted human papillomavirus-16/18 virus-like particle vaccine. Participants were randomized (human papillomavirus or hepatitis A vaccine) and offered 3 vaccinations over 6 months. Follow-up included annual visits (more frequently if clinically indicated), referral to colposcopy of high-grade and persistent low-grade lesions, treatment by loop electrosurgical excisional procedure when clinically indicated, and cytologic and virologic follow-up after treatment. Among women with human papillomavirus infection at the time of vaccination, we considered type-specific viral clearance, and development of cytologic (squamous intraepithelial lesions) and histologic (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia) lesions. Among treated women, we considered single-time and persistent human papillomavirus infection, squamous intraepithelial lesions, and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater. Outcomes associated with infections absent before treatment also were evaluated. Infection-level analyses were performed and vaccine efficacy estimated.ResultsMedian follow-up was 56.7 months (women with human papillomavirus infection) and 27.3 months (treated women). There was no evidence of vaccine efficacy to increase clearance of human papillomavirus infections or decrease incidence of cytologic/histologic abnormalities associated with human papillomavirus types present at enrollment. Vaccine efficacy for human papillomavirus 16/18 clearance and against human papillomavirus 16/18 progression from infection to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater were -5.4% (95% confidence interval -19,10) and 0.3% (95% confidence interval -69,41), respectively. Among treated women, 34.1% had oncogenic infection and 1.6% had cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater detected after treatment, respectively, and of these 69.8% and 20.0% were the result of new infections. We observed no significant effect of vaccination on rates of infection/lesions after treatment. Vaccine efficacy estimates for human papillomavirus 16/18 associated persistent infection and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater after treatment were 34.7% (95% confidence interval -131, 82) and -211% (95% confidence interval -2901, 68), respectively. We observed evidence for a partial and nonsignificant protective effect of vaccination against new infections absent before treatment. For incident human papillomavirus 16/18, human papillomavirus 31/33/45, and oncogenic human papillomavirus infections post-treatment, vaccine efficacy estimates were 57.9% (95% confidence interval -43, 88), 72.9% (95% confidence interval 29, 90), and 36.7% (95% confidence interval 1.5, 59), respectively.ConclusionWe find no evidence for a vaccine effect on the fate of detectable human papillomavirus infections. We show that vaccination does not protect against infections/lesions after treatment. Evaluation of vaccine protection against new infections after treatment and resultant lesions warrants further consideration in future studies.

Dataset Information

Age of Acquiring Causal Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infections: Leveraging Simulation Models to Explore the Natural History of HPV-induced Cervical Cancer.

Publications

Age of Acquiring Causal Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Infections: Leveraging Simulation Models to Explore the Natural History of HPV-induced Cervical Cancer.

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