Dataset Information

Mathematical Modeling for Scrub Typhus and Its Implications for Disease Control.

ABSTRACT: The incidence rate of scrub typhus has been increasing in the Republic of Korea. Previous studies have suggested that this trend may have resulted from the effects of climate change on the transmission dynamics among vectors and hosts, but a clear explanation of the process is still lacking. In this study, we applied mathematical models to explore the potential factors that influence the epidemiology of tsutsugamushi disease.We developed mathematical models of ordinary differential equations including human, rodent and mite groups. Two models, including simple and complex models, were developed, and all parameters employed in the models were adopted from previous articles that represent epidemiological situations in the Republic of Korea.The simulation results showed that the force of infection at the equilibrium state under the simple model was 0.236 (per 100,000 person-months), and that in the complex model was 26.796 (per 100,000 person-months). Sensitivity analyses indicated that the most influential parameters were rodent and mite populations and contact rate between them for the simple model, and trans-ovarian transmission for the complex model. In both models, contact rate between humans and mites is more influential than morality rate of rodent and mite group.The results indicate that the effect of controlling either rodents or mites could be limited, and reducing the contact rate between humans and mites is more practical and effective strategy. However, the current level of control would be insufficient relative to the growing mite population.

SUBMITTER: Min KD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5852423 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mathematical Modeling for Scrub Typhus and Its Implications for Disease Control.

Min Kyung Duk KD Cho Sung Il SI

Journal of Korean medical science 20180319 12

<h4>Background</h4>The incidence rate of scrub typhus has been increasing in the Republic of Korea. Previous studies have suggested that this trend may have resulted from the effects of climate change on the transmission dynamics among vectors and hosts, but a clear explanation of the process is still lacking. In this study, we applied mathematical models to explore the potential factors that influence the epidemiology of tsutsugamushi disease.<h4>Methods</h4>We developed mathematical models of ...[more]

PMID: 29542303

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Scrub typhus, a febrile illness of substantial incidence and mortality, is caused by infection with the obligately intracellular bacterium Orientia tsutsugamushi. It is estimated that there are more than one million cases annually transmitted by the parasitic larval stage of trombiculid mites in the Asia-Pacific region. The antigenic and genetic diversity of the multiple strains of O. tsutsugamushi hinders the advancement of laboratory diagnosis, development of long-lasting vaccine-induced protection, and interpretation of clinical infection. Despite the life-threatening severity of the illness in hundreds of thousands of cases annually, 85-93% of patients survive, often without anti-rickettsial treatment. To more completely understand the disease caused by Orientia infection, animal models which closely correlate with the clinical manifestations, target cells, organ involvement, and histopathologic lesions of human cases of scrub typhus should be employed. Previously, our laboratory has extensively characterized two relevant C57BL/6 mouse models using O. tsutsugamushi Karp strain: a route-specific intradermal model of infection and persistence and a hematogenously disseminated dose-dependent lethal model. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:To complement the lethal model, here we illustrate a sublethal model in the same mouse strain using the O. tsutsugamushi Gilliam strain, which resulted in dose-dependent severity of illness, weight loss, and systemic dissemination to endothelial cells of the microcirculation and mononuclear phagocytic cells. Histopathologic lesions included expansion of the pulmonary interstitium by inflammatory cell infiltrates and multifocal hepatic lesions with mononuclear cellular infiltrates, renal interstitial lymphohistiocytic inflammation, mild meningoencephalitis, and characteristic typhus nodules. SIGNIFICANCE:These models parallel characteristics of human cases of scrub typhus, and will be used in concert to understand differences in severity which lead to lethality or host control of the infection and to address the explanation for short duration of heterologous immunity in Orientia infection.

Dataset Information

Mathematical Modeling for Scrub Typhus and Its Implications for Disease Control.

Publications

Mathematical Modeling for Scrub Typhus and Its Implications for Disease Control.

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