Dataset Information

Development and validation of a diagnostic model for early differentiation of sepsis and non-infectious SIRS in critically ill children - a data-driven approach using machine-learning algorithms.

ABSTRACT: Since early antimicrobial therapy is mandatory in septic patients, immediate diagnosis and distinction from non-infectious SIRS is essential but hampered by the similarity of symptoms between both entities. We aimed to develop a diagnostic model for differentiation of sepsis and non-infectious SIRS in critically ill children based on routinely available parameters (baseline characteristics, clinical/laboratory parameters, technical/medical support).This is a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial conducted at a German tertiary-care pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Two hundred thirty-eight cases of non-infectious SIRS and 58 cases of sepsis (as defined by IPSCC criteria) were included. We applied a Random Forest approach to identify the best set of predictors out of 44 variables measured at the day of onset of the disease. The developed diagnostic model was validated in a temporal split-sample approach.A model including four clinical (length of PICU stay until onset of non-infectious SIRS/sepsis, central line, core temperature, number of non-infectious SIRS/sepsis episodes prior to diagnosis) and four laboratory parameters (interleukin-6, platelet count, procalcitonin, CRP) was identified in the training dataset. Validation in the test dataset revealed an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70-0.87). Our model was superior to previously proposed biomarkers such as CRP, interleukin-6, procalcitonin or a combination of CRP and procalcitonin (maximum AUC?=?0.63; 95% CI: 0.52-0.74). When aiming at a complete identification of sepsis cases (100%; 95% CI: 87-100%), 28% (95% CI: 20-38%) of non-infectious SIRS cases were assorted correctly.Our approach allows early recognition of sepsis with an accuracy superior to previously described biomarkers, and could potentially reduce antibiotic use by 30% in non-infectious SIRS cases. External validation studies are necessary to confirm the generalizability of our approach across populations and treatment practices.ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT00209768; registration date: September 21, 2005.

SUBMITTER: Lamping F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5853156 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and validation of a diagnostic model for early differentiation of sepsis and non-infectious SIRS in critically ill children - a data-driven approach using machine-learning algorithms.

Lamping Florian F Jack Thomas T Rübsamen Nicole N Sasse Michael M Beerbaum Philipp P Mikolajczyk Rafael T RT Boehne Martin M Karch André A

BMC pediatrics 20180315 1

<h4>Background</h4>Since early antimicrobial therapy is mandatory in septic patients, immediate diagnosis and distinction from non-infectious SIRS is essential but hampered by the similarity of symptoms between both entities. We aimed to develop a diagnostic model for differentiation of sepsis and non-infectious SIRS in critically ill children based on routinely available parameters (baseline characteristics, clinical/laboratory parameters, technical/medical support).<h4>Methods</h4>This is a se ...[more]

PMID: 29544449

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Project description:Background: Systemic inflammation is a whole body reaction that can have an infection-positive (i.e. sepsis) or infection-negative origin. It is important to distinguish between septic and non-septic presentations early and reliably, because this has significant therapeutic implications for critically ill patients. We hypothesized that a molecular classifier based on a small number of RNAs expressed in peripheral blood could be discovered that would: 1) determine which patients with systemic inflammation had sepsis; 2) be robust across independent patient cohorts; 3) be insensitive to disease severity; and 4) provide diagnostic utility. The overall goal of this study was to identify and validate such a molecular classifier. Methods and Findings: We conducted an observational, non-interventional study of adult patients recruited from tertiary intensive care units (ICU). Biomarker discovery was conducted with an Australian cohort (n = 105) consisting of sepsis patients and post -surgical patients with infection-negative systemic inflammation. Using this cohort, a four-gene classifier consisting of a combination of CEACAM4, LAMP1, PLA2G7 and PLAC8 RNA biomarkers was identified. This classifier, designated SeptiCyteÂ® Lab, was externally validated using RT-qPCR and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis in five cohorts (n = 345) from the Netherlands. Cohort 1 (n=59) consisted of unambiguous septic cases and infection-negative systemic inflammation controls; SeptiCyteÂ® Lab gave an area under curve (AUC) of 0.96 (95% CI: 0.91-1.00). ROC analysis of a more heterogeneous group of patients (Cohorts 2-5; 249 patients after excluding 37 patients with infection likelihood possible) gave an AUC of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85-0.93). Disease severity, as measured by Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score or the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV score, was not a significant confounding variable. The diagnostic utility o f SeptiCyteÂ® Lab was evaluated by comparison to various clinical and laboratory parameters that would be available to a clinician within 24 hours of ICU admission. SeptiCyteÂ® Lab was significantly better at differentiating sepsis from infection-negative systemic inflammation than all tested parameters, both singly and in various logistic combinations. SeptiCyteÂ® Lab more than halved the diagnostic error rate compared to PCT in all tested cohorts or cohort combinations. Conclusions: SeptiCyteÂ® Lab is a rapid molecular assay that may be clinically useful in the management of ICU patients with systemic inflammation. SIRS and Sepsis ICU patients, admission samples Retrospective, mutli-site sutdy using retrospective physician adjudication as a comparator

Project description:Background: Systemic inflammation is a whole body reaction that can have an infection-positive (i.e. sepsis) or infection-negative origin. It is important to distinguish between septic and non-septic presentations early and reliably, because this has significant therapeutic implications for critically ill patients. We hypothesized that a molecular classifier based on a small number of RNAs expressed in peripheral blood could be discovered that would: 1) determine which patients with systemic inflammation had sepsis; 2) be robust across independent patient cohorts; 3) be insensitive to disease severity; and 4) provide diagnostic utility. The overall goal of this study was to identify and validate such a molecular classifier. Methods and Findings: We conducted an observational, non-interventional study of adult patients recruited from tertiary intensive care units (ICU). Biomarker discovery was conducted with an Australian cohort (n = 105) consisting of sepsis patients and post -surgical patients with infection-negative systemic inflammation. Using this cohort, a four-gene classifier consisting of a combination of CEACAM4, LAMP1, PLA2G7 and PLAC8 RNA biomarkers was identified. This classifier, designated SeptiCyte® Lab, was externally validated using RT-qPCR and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis in five cohorts (n = 345) from the Netherlands. Cohort 1 (n=59) consisted of unambiguous septic cases and infection-negative systemic inflammation controls; SeptiCyte® Lab gave an area under curve (AUC) of 0.96 (95% CI: 0.91-1.00). ROC analysis of a more heterogeneous group of patients (Cohorts 2-5; 249 patients after excluding 37 patients with infection likelihood possible) gave an AUC of 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85-0.93). Disease severity, as measured by Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score or the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV score, was not a significant confounding variable. The diagnostic utility o f SeptiCyte® Lab was evaluated by comparison to various clinical and laboratory parameters that would be available to a clinician within 24 hours of ICU admission. SeptiCyte® Lab was significantly better at differentiating sepsis from infection-negative systemic inflammation than all tested parameters, both singly and in various logistic combinations. SeptiCyte® Lab more than halved the diagnostic error rate compared to PCT in all tested cohorts or cohort combinations. Conclusions: SeptiCyte® Lab is a rapid molecular assay that may be clinically useful in the management of ICU patients with systemic inflammation. SIRS and Sepsis ICU patients, admission samples

Project description:Objective: It is unclear whether the host response of gram-positive sepsis differs from gram-negative sepsis at a transcriptome level. Using microarray technology, we compared the gene-expression profiles of gram-positive sepsis and gram-negative sepsis in critically ill patients. Design: A prospective cross-sectional study. Setting: A 20-bed general intensive care unit of a tertiary referral hospital. Patients: Seventy-two patients admitted to the intensive care unit. Interventions: Intravenous blood was collected for leukocyte separation and RNA extraction. Microarray experiements were then performed examing the expression level of 19,232 genes in each sample. Measurements and Main Results: There was no difference in the expression profile between gram-positive and gram-negative sepsis. The finding remained unchanged even when genes with lower expression level were included or after statistical stringency was lowered. There were, however, ninety-four genes differentially expressed between sepsis and control patients. These genes included those involved in immune regulation, inflammation and mitochondrial function. Hierarchical cluster analysis confirmed that the difference in gene expression profile existed between sepsis and control patients, but not between gram-positive and gram-negative patients. Conclusion: Gram-positive and gram-negative sepsis share a common host response at a transcriptome level. These findings support the hypothesis that the septic response is non-specific and is designed to provide a more general response that can be elicited by a wide range of different micro-organisms. The study included seventy-two critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Nepean Hospital, Sydney, Australia. Of these, fifty-five patients were diagnosed to have sepsis, as confirmed by microbiological culture. The remaining seventeen patients did not have sepsis and were therefore used as controls. The study was approved by the hospital ethics committee and informed consent was obtained from all patients or their relatives. Patient Samples. Whole blood was taken from each patient on admission to ICU. Neutrophils were separated from whole blood using density-gradient separation with Ficoll-PaqueP P(Amersham). Subsequent neutrophil RNA extraction was performed using guanidinium thiocyanate (Ambion). Microarray Experiment. The neutrophil RNA was converted to cDNA, fluorescently labeled and hybridized to its complimentary sequences on the microarray (Invitrogen). The fluorescent signals on each micrroarray were captured using the GenePix 4000B laser scanner (Axon Instruments). Expression level of each gene was represented by the intensity of its fluorescent signal. Data Extraction. All signal intensity values were processed using background-subtraction method. Prior to analysis, all values were log-transformed and normalized by fitting a print-tip group Lowess curve. Normalization minimizes bias due to dye chemistry, signal intensity or location of a gene on the array. It ensures the detection of genes that are truly differentially expressed, instead of those caused by experimental artifacts or variation in the hybridization process. After normalization, genes that had more than 50% of data missing were removed. We then selected genes that had at least 80% of the data showing two-fold changes from the geneâs median values. After filtering, 1617 genes were available for further analysis.

Project description:Background: Sepsis-induced coagulopathy (SIC) denotes an increased mortality rate and poorer prognosis in septic patients. Objectives: Our study aimed to develop and validate machine-learning models to dynamically predict the risk of SIC in critically ill patients with sepsis. Methods: Machine-learning models were developed and validated based on two public databases named Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV and the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD). Dynamic prediction of SIC involved an evaluation of the risk of SIC each day after the diagnosis of sepsis using 15 predictive models. The best model was selected based on its accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), followed by fine-grained hyperparameter adjustment using the Bayesian Optimization Algorithm. A compact model was developed, based on 15 features selected according to their importance and clinical availability. These two models were compared with Logistic Regression and SIC scores in terms of SIC prediction. Results: Of 11,362 patients in MIMIC-IV included in the final cohort, a total of 6,744 (59%) patients developed SIC during sepsis. The model named Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) had the greatest AUC in our study (0.869; 95% CI: 0.850-0.886). Coagulation profile and renal function indicators were the most important features for predicting SIC. A compact model was developed with an AUC of 0.854 (95% CI: 0.832-0.872), while the AUCs of Logistic Regression and SIC scores were 0.746 (95% CI: 0.735-0.755) and 0.709 (95% CI: 0.687-0.733), respectively. A cohort of 35,252 septic patients in eICU-CRD was analyzed. The AUCs of the full and the compact models in the external validation were 0.842 (95% CI: 0.837-0.846) and 0.803 (95% CI: 0.798-0.809), respectively, which were still larger than those of Logistic Regression (0.660; 95% CI: 0.653-0.667) and SIC scores (0.752; 95% CI: 0.747-0.757). Prediction results were illustrated by SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values, which made our models clinically interpretable. Conclusions: We developed two models which were able to dynamically predict the risk of SIC in septic patients better than conventional Logistic Regression and SIC scores.

Project description:BackgroundSepsis-associated acute kidney injury (SA-AKI) is common in critically ill patients, which is associated with significantly increased mortality. Existing mortality prediction tools showed insufficient predictive power or failed to reflect patients' dynamic clinical evolution. Therefore, the study aimed to develop and validate machine learning-based models for real-time mortality prediction in critically ill patients with SA-AKI.MethodsThe multi-center retrospective study included patients from two distinct databases. A total of 12,132 SA-AKI patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) were randomly allocated to the training, validation, and internal test sets. An additional 3,741 patients from the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) served as an external test set. For every 12 h during the ICU stays, the state-of-the-art eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to predict the risk of in-hospital death in the following 48, 72, and 120 h and in the first 28 days after ICU admission. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were calculated to evaluate the models' performance.ResultsThe XGBoost models, based on routine clinical variables updated every 12 h, showed better performance in mortality prediction than the SOFA score and SAPS-II. The AUCs of the XGBoost models for mortality over different time periods ranged from 0.848 to 0.804 in the internal test set and from 0.818 to 0.748 in the external test set. The shapley additive explanation method provided interpretability for the XGBoost models, which improved the understanding of the association between the predictor variables and future mortality.ConclusionsThe interpretable machine learning XGBoost models showed promising performance in real-time mortality prediction in critically ill patients with SA-AKI, which are useful tools for early identification of high-risk patients and timely clinical interventions.

Project description:Sepsis is defined by life-threatening organ dysfunction during infection and is the leading cause of death in hospitals. During sepsis, there is a high risk that new onset of atrial fibrillation (AF) can occur, which is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Consequently, early prediction of AF during sepsis would allow testing of interventions in the intensive care unit (ICU) to prevent AF and its severe complications. In this paper, we present a novel automated AF prediction algorithm for critically ill sepsis patients using electrocardiogram (ECG) signals. From the heart rate signal collected from 5-min ECG, feature extraction is performed using the traditional time, frequency, and nonlinear domain methods. Moreover, variable frequency complex demodulation and tunable Q-factor wavelet-transform-based time-frequency methods are applied to extract novel features from the heart rate signal. Using a selected feature subset, several machine learning classifiers, including support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF), were trained using only the 2001 Computers in Cardiology data set. For testing the proposed method, 50 critically ill ICU subjects from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) III database were used in this study. Using distinct and independent testing data from MIMIC III, the SVM achieved 80% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 90% accuracy, 100% positive predictive value, and 83.33% negative predictive value for predicting AF immediately prior to the onset of AF, while the RF achieved 88% AF prediction accuracy. When we analyzed how much in advance we can predict AF events in critically ill sepsis patients, the algorithm achieved 80% accuracy for predicting AF events 10 min early. Our algorithm outperformed a state-of-the-art method for predicting AF in ICU patients, further demonstrating the efficacy of our proposed method. The annotations of patients' AF transition information will be made publicly available for other investigators. Our algorithm to predict AF onset is applicable for any ECG modality including patch electrodes and wearables, including Holter, loop recorder, and implantable devices.

Dataset Information

Development and validation of a diagnostic model for early differentiation of sepsis and non-infectious SIRS in critically ill children - a data-driven approach using machine-learning algorithms.

Publications

Development and validation of a diagnostic model for early differentiation of sepsis and non-infectious SIRS in critically ill children - a data-driven approach using machine-learning algorithms.

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