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Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe.

ABSTRACT: Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24?hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present.

SUBMITTER: Massad E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5854675 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe.

Massad Eduardo E Amaku Marcos M Coutinho Francisco Antonio Bezerra FAB Struchiner Claudio José CJ Burattini Marcelo Nascimento MN Khan Kamran K Liu-Helmersson Jing J Rocklöv Joacim J Kraemer Moritz U G MUG Wilder-Smith Annelies A

Scientific reports 20180315 1

Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue ...[more]

PMID: 29545610

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Project description:BackgroundMycetoma is a chronic granulomatous infection involving cutaneous and subcutaneous tissues. It is endemic in tropical and subtropical areas, but sporadic cases have been reported also in countries of temperate climate. The purpose of this paper is to review the cases of mycetoma in European subjects (and presumably acquired in Europe), to give an insight in the main factors associated with this condition, and to describe two previously unpublished cases observed at our Centre.Methods and findingsPubMed was systematically searched for case reports and case series of mycetoma in Europeans reported between 1980 and 2014, using specific search strategies. Two further cases diagnosed by the authors are described. Forty-two cases were collected. Eleven cases were caused by Scedosporium apiospermium, mainly in immunosuppressed patients from Bulgaria, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain and the United Kingdom. Excluding all patients with immunosuppression, 29 cases remain. Most of them were reported from Bulgaria and in Albanian patients (all diagnosed outside Albania). In the Bulgarian case series many different micro-organisms, both bacteria and fungi, were isolated, while all the 5 cases from Albania were caused by Actinomadura spp. Other countries reporting cases were Greece, Italy and Turkey. In general, Actinomadura spp is the most frequent causative agent isolated, followed by Nocardia spp and Madurella mycetomatis. The foot was the most reported site involved. Most patients were medically treated, but unfortunately a long-term follow up (at least one year) was available only in a few cases.ConclusionsOur review and our own cases suggest that Europeans without travel history can be affected by Madura foot. The lack of a surveillance system is likely to cause an underreporting of cases. Moreover, the unfamiliarity of Western doctors with this peculiar infection may cause a mismanagement, including unnecessary amputations.

Project description:BackgroundChikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a reemerging pathogen transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. The ongoing Caribbean outbreak is of concern due to the potential for infected travelers to spread the virus to countries where vectors are present and the population is susceptible. Although there has been no autochthonous transmission of CHIKV in Canada, there is concern that both Ae. albopictus and CHIKV will become established, particularly under projected climate change. We developed risk maps for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada under recent (1981–2010) and projected climate (2011–2040 and 2041–2070).MethodsThe risk for CHIKV transmission was the combination of the climatic suitability for CHIKV transmission potential and the climatic suitability for the presence of Ae. albopictus; the former was assessed using a stochastic model to calculate R0 and the latter was assessed by deriving a suitability indicator (SIG) that captures a set of climatic conditions known to influence the ecology of Ae. albopictus. R0 and SIG were calculated for each grid cell in Canada south of 60°N, for each time period and for two emission scenarios, and combined to produce overall risk categories that were mapped to identify areas suitable for transmission and the duration of transmissibility.FindingsThe risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission under recent climate is very low with all of Canada classified as unsuitable or rather unsuitable for transmission. Small parts of southern coastal British Columbia become progressively suitable with short-term and long-term projected climate; the duration of potential transmission is limited to 1–2 months of the year.InterpretationAlthough the current risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada is very low, our study could be further supported by the routine surveillance of Ae. albopictus in areas identified as potentially suitable for transmission given our uncertainty on the current distribution of this species in Canada. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP669

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Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe.

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Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe.

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