Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe.

ABSTRACT: Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany rece

SUBMITTER: Massad E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5854675 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature