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Long-term incidence trends of HPV-related cancers, and cases preventable by HPV vaccination: a registry-based study in Norway.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:Examine long-term incidence trends of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancer in Norway, and estimate the number of cancer cases preventable by vaccines against HPV 16/18 or HPV 16/18/31/33/45/52/58. DESIGN:Observational registry-based study. We extracted incident cases of HPV-related cancer during 1953-2015 from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Tumour HPV prevalence estimates from large international meta-analyses or from Norway were used to estimate the protective potential of HPV vaccines. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING:The Norwegian population. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES:Incidence trend analyses during 1953-2015 for squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the cervix, vulva, vagina, oropharynx, anus and penis, and adenocarcinoma of the cervix. Additionally, the number of cancer cases preventable by HPV vaccination. RESULTS:Among women, incidences of SCC of the anus, oropharynx, vulva and cervical adenocarcinoma increased, while vaginal SCC showed no trend. For these cancers combined, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) during 1953-2015 was 1.2 (95% CI 0.7 to 1.6). The incidence of cervical SCC generally decreased during 1976-2004 and remained stable thereafter. Among men, incidences of SCC of the anus, oropharynx and penis increased. The AAPC during 1953-2015 combined for all male HPV-related cancer was 1.9 (95% CI 1.3 to 2.5). A vaccine against HPV 16/18 might yearly prevent 402 (95% CI 382 to 420) cancers. A vaccine against HPV 16/18/31/33/45/52/58 might yearly prevent 478 (95% CI 464 to 490) cancers, of which 206 (95% CI 202 to 209) occur in non-cervical organs, and 113 (95% CI 110 to 115) occur among men. CONCLUSIONS:The incidences of HPV-related cancers that are not effectively prevented by screening have generally increased during 1953-2015. HPV vaccination can prevent a substantial number of cancers in Norway, in cervical and non-cervical organs, among women and men.

SUBMITTER: Hansen BT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5855252 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Long-term incidence trends of HPV-related cancers, and cases preventable by HPV vaccination: a registry-based study in Norway.

Hansen Bo T BT Campbell Suzanne S Nygård Mari M

BMJ open 20180223 2

<h4>Objectives</h4>Examine long-term incidence trends of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancer in Norway, and estimate the number of cancer cases preventable by vaccines against HPV 16/18 or HPV 16/18/31/33/45/52/58.<h4>Design</h4>Observational registry-based study. We extracted incident cases of HPV-related cancer during 1953-2015 from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Tumour HPV prevalence estimates from large international meta-analyses or from Norway were used to estimate the protective pot ...[more]

PMID: 29476028

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Project description:BackgroundIncreasingly, countries have introduced female vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV), causally linked to several cancers and genital warts, but few have recommended vaccination of boys. Declining vaccine prices and strong evidence of vaccine impact on reducing HPV-related conditions in both women and men prompt countries to reevaluate whether HPV vaccination of boys is warranted.MethodsA previously-published dynamic model of HPV transmission was empirically calibrated to Norway. Reductions in the incidence of HPV, including both direct and indirect benefits, were applied to a natural history model of cervical cancer, and to incidence-based models for other non-cervical HPV-related diseases. We calculated the health outcomes and costs of the different HPV-related conditions under a gender-neutral vaccination program compared to a female-only program.ResultsVaccine price had a decisive impact on results. For example, assuming 71% coverage, high vaccine efficacy and a reasonable vaccine tender price of $75 per dose, we found vaccinating both girls and boys fell below a commonly cited cost-effectiveness threshold in Norway ($83,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained) when including vaccine benefit for all HPV-related diseases. However, at the current market price, including boys would not be considered 'good value for money.' For settings with a lower cost-effectiveness threshold ($30,000/QALY), it would not be considered cost-effective to expand the current program to include boys, unless the vaccine price was less than $36/dose. Increasing vaccination coverage to 90% among girls was more effective and less costly than the benefits achieved by vaccinating both genders with 71% coverage.ConclusionsAt the anticipated tender price, expanding the HPV vaccination program to boys may be cost-effective and may warrant a change in the current female-only vaccination policy in Norway. However, increasing coverage in girls is uniformly more effective and cost-effective than expanding vaccination coverage to boys and should be considered a priority.

Project description:ImportanceWith increasing prevalence of atopic dermatitis (AD) and its manifestation in most countries, together with the supporting evidence of the progression to other atopic phenotypes, AD has developed into a worldwide public health concern. The presence of the disease of has increased since the 1950s, but some recent studies suggest a stationary or decreasing trend.ObjectiveTo analyze a nationwide health register based on prescription data to determine the incidence rate (IR) of AD in an entire pediatric population.Design, setting, and participantsAll children resident in Norway younger than 6 years from January 1, 2009, through December 31, 2015, were included in this cohort study. Medical diagnoses and disease-specific medications were used as a proxy for identifying children with AD in this population-based prescription registry study. The prescription study was terminated in 2016. The total number of 295 286 disease-specific prescriptions was analyzed from August 2016 through December 2017. The hypothesis was formulated before, during, and after the data collection.Main outcomes and measuresAll children with a medical diagnosis of AD or eczema based on at least 2 prescriptions of topical corticosteroids or at least 1 prescription of topical calcineurin inhibitors. Incidence rates per person-year (PY) and IR ratios were calculated.ResultsA total of 295 286 disease-specific prescriptions were dispensed to 122 470 children, of whom 63 460 had AD and 56 009 (88.3%) had reimbursed prescriptions and associated AD diagnoses. The annual Norwegian study population (aged <6 years) increased from 357 451 children in 2009 to 373 954 in 2015. The overall IR increased from 0.028 per PY (95% CI, 0.028-0.029 per PY) in 2009 to 0.034 per PY (95% CI, 0.033-0.035 per PY) in 2014. For children younger than 1 year, the IR increased from 0.052 per PY (95% CI, 0.050-0.053 PY) in 2009 to 0.073 per PY (95% CI, 0.071-0.075 per PY) in 2014. In this age group, the IR was 53% higher in boys compared with girls (IR ratio, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.49-1.57; P < .001). The incidence proportion before the age of 6 years was 17.4% (95% CI, 17.2%-17.7%). The primary seasons for the onset of AD were winter and spring.Conclusions and relevanceThis nationwide study suggests an increase in the IR of pediatric AD, especially among children younger than 1 year. This study's findings suggest that increase occurred with a higher IR during winter and spring seasons. Atopic dermatitis had an earlier onset in boys than in girls. During the study period, more than 1 in 6 children younger than 6 years had, at some point, been affected by AD.

Project description:BackgroundThe American Cancer Society (ACS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updates on cancer incidence and death rates and trends in these outcomes for the United States. This year's report includes incidence trends for human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated cancers and HPV vaccination (recommended for adolescents aged 11-12 years).MethodsData on cancer incidence were obtained from the CDC, NCI, and NAACCR, and data on mortality were obtained from the CDC. Long- (1975/1992-2009) and short-term (2000-2009) trends in age-standardized incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the leading cancers among men and among women were examined by joinpoint analysis. Prevalence of HPV vaccination coverage during 2008 and 2010 and of Papanicolaou (Pap) testing during 2010 were obtained from national surveys.ResultsDeath rates continued to decline for all cancers combined for men and women of all major racial and ethnic groups and for most major cancer sites; rates for both sexes combined decreased by 1.5% per year from 2000 to 2009. Overall incidence rates decreased in men but stabilized in women. Incidence rates increased for two HPV-associated cancers (oropharynx, anus) and some cancers not associated with HPV (eg, liver, kidney, thyroid). Nationally, 32.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 30.3% to 33.6%) of girls aged 13 to 17 years in 2010 had received three doses of the HPV vaccine, and coverage was statistically significantly lower among the uninsured (14.1%, 95% CI = 9.4% to 20.6%) and in some Southern states (eg, 20.0% in Alabama [95% CI = 13.9% to 27.9%] and Mississippi [95% CI = 13.8% to 28.2%]), where cervical cancer rates were highest and recent Pap testing prevalence was the lowest.ConclusionsThe overall trends in declining cancer death rates continue. However, increases in incidence rates for some HPV-associated cancers and low vaccination coverage among adolescents underscore the need for additional prevention efforts for HPV-associated cancers, including efforts to increase vaccination coverage.

Project description:BackgroundMany countries have initiated school-based human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs. The real-life effectiveness of HPV vaccines has become increasingly evident, especially among girls vaccinated before HPV exposure in countries with high vaccine uptake. In 2009, Norway initiated a school-based HPV vaccination program for 12-year-old girls using the quadrivalent HPV vaccine (Gardasil®), which targets HPV6, 11, 16, and 18. Here, we aim to assess type-specific vaginal and oral HPV prevalence in vaccinated compared with unvaccinated girls in the first birth cohort eligible for school-based vaccination (born in 1997).MethodsThis observational, cross-sectional study measured the HPV prevalence ratio (PR) between vaccinated and unvaccinated girls in Norway. Facebook advertisement was used to recruit participants and disseminate information about the study. Participants self-sampled vaginal and oral specimens using an Evalyn® Brush and a FLOQSwab™, respectively. Sexual behavior was ascertained through a short questionnaire.ResultsAmong the 312 participants, 239 (76.6%) had received at least one dose of HPV vaccine prior to sexual debut. 39.1% of vaginal samples were positive for any HPV type, with similar prevalence among vaccinated and unvaccinated girls (38.5% vs 41.1%, PR: 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.62-1.41). For vaccine-targeted types there was some evidence of lower prevalence in the vaccinated (0.4%) compared to the unvaccinated (6.8%) group (PR: 0.06, 95%CI: 0.01-0.52). This difference remained after adjusting for sexual behavior (PR: 0.04, 95%CI: 0.00-0.42). Only four oral samples were positive for any HPV type, and all of these participants had received at least one dose of HPV vaccine at least 1 year before oral sexual debut.ConclusionThere is evidence of a lower prevalence of vaccine-targeted HPV types in the vagina of vaccinated girls from the first birth cohort eligible for school-based HPV vaccination in Norway; this was not the case when considering all HPV types or types not included in the quadrivalent HPV vaccine.

Dataset Information

Long-term incidence trends of HPV-related cancers, and cases preventable by HPV vaccination: a registry-based study in Norway.

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Long-term incidence trends of HPV-related cancers, and cases preventable by HPV vaccination: a registry-based study in Norway.

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