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Long-term incidence trends of HPV-related cancers, and cases preventable by HPV vaccination: a registry-based study in Norway.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:Examine long-term incidence trends of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancer in Norway, and estimate the number of cancer cases preventable by vaccines against HPV 16/18 or HPV 16/18/31/33/45/52/58. DESIGN:Observational registry-based study. We extracted incident cases of HPV-related cancer during 1953-2015 from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Tumour HPV prevalence estimates from large international meta-analyses or from Norway were used to estimate the protective potential of HPV vaccines. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING:The Norwegian population. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES:Incidence trend analyses during 1953-2015 for squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the cervix, vulva, vagina, oropharynx, anus and penis, and adenocarcinoma of the cervix. Additionally, the number of cancer cases preventable by HPV vaccination. RESULTS:Among women, incidences of SCC of the anus, oropharynx, vulva and cervical adenocarcinoma increased, while vaginal SCC showed no trend. For these cancers combined, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) during 1953-2015 was 1.2 (95% CI 0.7 to 1.6). The incidence of cervical SCC generally decreased during 1976-2004 and remained stable thereafter. Among men, incidences of SCC of the anus, oropharynx and penis increased. The AAPC during 1953-2015 combined for all male HPV-related cancer was 1.9 (95% CI 1.3 to 2.5). A vaccine against HPV 16/18 might yearly prevent 402 (95% CI 382 to 420) cancers. A vaccine against HPV 16/18/31/33/45/52/58 might yearly prevent 478 (95% CI 464 to 490) cancers, of which 206 (95% CI 202 to 209) occur in non-cervical organs, and 113 (95% CI 110 to 115) occur among men. CONCLUSIONS:The incidences of HPV-related cancers that are not effectively prevented by screening have generally increased during 1953-2015. HPV vaccination can prevent a substantial number of cancers in Norway, in cervical and non-cervical organs, among women and men.

SUBMITTER: Hansen BT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5855252 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Long-term incidence trends of HPV-related cancers, and cases preventable by HPV vaccination: a registry-based study in Norway.

Hansen Bo T BT Campbell Suzanne S Nygård Mari M

BMJ open 20180223 2

<h4>Objectives</h4>Examine long-term incidence trends of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related cancer in Norway, and estimate the number of cancer cases preventable by vaccines against HPV 16/18 or HPV 16/18/31/33/45/52/58.<h4>Design</h4>Observational registry-based study. We extracted incident cases of HPV-related cancer during 1953-2015 from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Tumour HPV prevalence estimates from large international meta-analyses or from Norway were used to estimate the protective pot ...[more]

PMID: 29476028

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Project description:BackgroundIncreasingly, countries have introduced female vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV), causally linked to several cancers and genital warts, but few have recommended vaccination of boys. Declining vaccine prices and strong evidence of vaccine impact on reducing HPV-related conditions in both women and men prompt countries to reevaluate whether HPV vaccination of boys is warranted.MethodsA previously-published dynamic model of HPV transmission was empirically calibrated to Norway. Reductions in the incidence of HPV, including both direct and indirect benefits, were applied to a natural history model of cervical cancer, and to incidence-based models for other non-cervical HPV-related diseases. We calculated the health outcomes and costs of the different HPV-related conditions under a gender-neutral vaccination program compared to a female-only program.ResultsVaccine price had a decisive impact on results. For example, assuming 71% coverage, high vaccine efficacy and a reasonable vaccine tender price of $75 per dose, we found vaccinating both girls and boys fell below a commonly cited cost-effectiveness threshold in Norway ($83,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained) when including vaccine benefit for all HPV-related diseases. However, at the current market price, including boys would not be considered 'good value for money.' For settings with a lower cost-effectiveness threshold ($30,000/QALY), it would not be considered cost-effective to expand the current program to include boys, unless the vaccine price was less than $36/dose. Increasing vaccination coverage to 90% among girls was more effective and less costly than the benefits achieved by vaccinating both genders with 71% coverage.ConclusionsAt the anticipated tender price, expanding the HPV vaccination program to boys may be cost-effective and may warrant a change in the current female-only vaccination policy in Norway. However, increasing coverage in girls is uniformly more effective and cost-effective than expanding vaccination coverage to boys and should be considered a priority.

Project description:ImportanceWith increasing prevalence of atopic dermatitis (AD) and its manifestation in most countries, together with the supporting evidence of the progression to other atopic phenotypes, AD has developed into a worldwide public health concern. The presence of the disease of has increased since the 1950s, but some recent studies suggest a stationary or decreasing trend.ObjectiveTo analyze a nationwide health register based on prescription data to determine the incidence rate (IR) of AD in an entire pediatric population.Design, setting, and participantsAll children resident in Norway younger than 6 years from January 1, 2009, through December 31, 2015, were included in this cohort study. Medical diagnoses and disease-specific medications were used as a proxy for identifying children with AD in this population-based prescription registry study. The prescription study was terminated in 2016. The total number of 295 286 disease-specific prescriptions was analyzed from August 2016 through December 2017. The hypothesis was formulated before, during, and after the data collection.Main outcomes and measuresAll children with a medical diagnosis of AD or eczema based on at least 2 prescriptions of topical corticosteroids or at least 1 prescription of topical calcineurin inhibitors. Incidence rates per person-year (PY) and IR ratios were calculated.ResultsA total of 295 286 disease-specific prescriptions were dispensed to 122 470 children, of whom 63 460 had AD and 56 009 (88.3%) had reimbursed prescriptions and associated AD diagnoses. The annual Norwegian study population (aged <6 years) increased from 357 451 children in 2009 to 373 954 in 2015. The overall IR increased from 0.028 per PY (95% CI, 0.028-0.029 per PY) in 2009 to 0.034 per PY (95% CI, 0.033-0.035 per PY) in 2014. For children younger than 1 year, the IR increased from 0.052 per PY (95% CI, 0.050-0.053 PY) in 2009 to 0.073 per PY (95% CI, 0.071-0.075 per PY) in 2014. In this age group, the IR was 53% higher in boys compared with girls (IR ratio, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.49-1.57; P < .001). The incidence proportion before the age of 6 years was 17.4% (95% CI, 17.2%-17.7%). The primary seasons for the onset of AD were winter and spring.Conclusions and relevanceThis nationwide study suggests an increase in the IR of pediatric AD, especially among children younger than 1 year. This study's findings suggest that increase occurred with a higher IR during winter and spring seasons. Atopic dermatitis had an earlier onset in boys than in girls. During the study period, more than 1 in 6 children younger than 6 years had, at some point, been affected by AD.

Project description:ImportanceFetal death during labor at term is a complication that is rarely studied in high-income countries. There is a need for large population-based studies to examine the rate of term intrapartum stillbirth in high-income countries and the factors associated with its occurrence.ObjectiveTo evaluate trends in term intrapartum stillbirth over time and to investigate the association between the trends and term intrapartum stillbirth risk factors from 1999 to 2018 in Norway.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study used data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway from 1999 to 2018 to examine rates of term intrapartum stillbirth and risk factors associated with this event. A population of 1 021 268 term singleton pregnancies without congenital anomalies or antepartum stillbirths was included in analyses, which were performed from September 2022 to February 2023.ExposureThe main exposure variable was time, which was divided into four 5-year periods: 1999 to 2003, 2004 to 2008, 2009 to 2013, and 2014 to 2018.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary study outcome was term intrapartum stillbirth. Risk ratios were calculated, and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with secular trends of term intrapartum stillbirth.ResultsThe study population consisted of 1 021 268 term singleton births (maternal mean [SD] age, 29.72 [5.01] years; mean [SD] gestational age, 39.69 [1.27] weeks). During the study period, there were 95 term intrapartum stillbirths (0.09 per 1000 births). Maternal age, the proportion of individuals born in a country other than Norway, and the prevalence of gestational diabetes, labor induction, operative vaginal delivery, and previous cesarean delivery increased over the course of the study period. Conversely, the prevalence of infants large for gestational age, hypertensive disorder in pregnancy, and spontaneous vaginal delivery and the proportion of individuals who smoked decreased. The term intrapartum stillbirth rate decreased by 87% (95% CI, 68%-95%) from 0.15 per 1000 births in 1999 to 2008 to 0.02 per 1000 births in 2014 to 2018. Three in 4 term intrapartum stillbirths (70 of 95) occurred during intrapartum operative deliveries. The increased prevalence of older maternal age and obstetric risk factors were not associated with the variation in intrapartum stillbirth rates among the time periods. The prevalence of term intrapartum stillbirth was higher for individuals who gave birth in maternity units with fewer than 3000 annual births (adjusted odds ratio, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.07-2.61) than for those who gave birth in units with 3000 or more annual births.Conclusions and relevanceFindings of this study suggest that, despite increases in maternal and obstetric risk factors, term intrapartum stillbirth rates substantially decreased during the study period. Reasons for this decrease may be due to improvements in intrapartum care.

Dataset Information

Long-term incidence trends of HPV-related cancers, and cases preventable by HPV vaccination: a registry-based study in Norway.

Publications

Long-term incidence trends of HPV-related cancers, and cases preventable by HPV vaccination: a registry-based study in Norway.

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