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The future of subalpine forests in the Southern Rocky Mountains: Trajectories for Pinus aristata genetic lineages.

ABSTRACT: Like many other high elevation alpine tree species, Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine (Pinus aristata Engelm.) may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. To evaluate its potential vulnerability to shifts in climate, we defined the suitable climate space for each of four genetic lineages of bristlecone pine and for other subalpine tree species in close proximity to bristlecone pine forests. Measuring changes in the suitable climate space for lineage groups is an important step beyond models that assume species are genetically homogenous. The suitable climate space for bristlecone pine in the year 2090 is projected to decline by 74% and the proportional distribution of suitable climate space for genetic lineages shifts toward those associated with warmer and wetter conditions. The 2090 climate space for bristlecone pine exhibits a bimodal distribution along an elevation gradient, presumably due to the persistence of the climate space in the Southern Rocky Mountains and exclusion at mid-elevations by conditions that favor the climate space of other species. These shifts have implications for changes in fire regimes, vulnerability to pest and pathogens, and altered carbon dynamics across the southern Rockies, which may reduce the likelihood of bristlecone pine trees achieving exceptional longevity in the future. The persistence and expansion of climate space for southern bristlecone pine genetic lineage groups in 2090 suggests that these sources may be the least vulnerable in the future. While these lineages may be more likely to persist and therefore present opportunities for proactive management (e.g., assisted migration) to maintain subalpine forest ecosystem services in a warmer world, our findings also imply heighted conservation concern for vulnerable northern lineages facing range contractions.

SUBMITTER: Malone SL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5858753 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:From the aboveground vegetation to the belowground microbes, terrestrial communities differ between the highly divergent alpine (above treeline) and subalpine (below treeline) ecosystems. Yet, much less is known about the partitioning of microbial communities between alpine and subalpine lakes. Our goal was to determine whether the composition of bacterioplankton communities of high-elevation mountain lakes differed across treeline, identify key players in driving the community composition, and identify potential environmental factors that may be driving differences. To do so, we compared bacterial community composition (using 16S rDNA sequencing) of alpine and subalpine lakes in the Southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion at two time points: once in the early summer and once in the late summer. In the early summer (July), shortly after peak runoff, bacterial communities of alpine lakes were distinct from subalpine lakes. Interestingly, by the end of the summer (approximately 5 weeks after the first visit in August), bacterial communities of alpine and subalpine lakes were no longer distinct. Several bacterial amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) were also identified as key players by significantly contributing to the community dissimilarity. The community divergence across treeline found in the early summer was correlated with several environmental factors, including dissolved organic carbon (DOC), pH, chlorophyll-a (chl-a), and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN). In this paper, we offer several potential scenarios driven by both biotic and abiotic factors that could lead to the observed patterns. While the mechanisms for these patterns are yet to be determined, the community dissimilarity in the early summer correlates with the timing of increased hydrologic connections with the terrestrial environment. Springtime snowmelt brings the flushing of mountain watersheds that connects terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. This connectivity declines precipitously throughout the summer after snowmelt is complete. Regional climate change is predicted to bring alterations to precipitation and snowpack, which can modify the flushing of solutes, nutrients, and terrestrial microbes into lakes. Future preservation of the unique alpine lake ecosystem is dependent on a better understanding of ecosystem partitioning across treeline and careful consideration of terrestrial-aquatic connections in mountain watersheds.

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The future of subalpine forests in the Southern Rocky Mountains: Trajectories for Pinus aristata genetic lineages.

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