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Joint Effects of Age, Period, and Cohort on Conduct Problems Among American Adolescents From 1991 Through 2015.

ABSTRACT: Although arrest rates among juveniles have substantially decreased since the 1990s, US national trends in conduct problems are unknown. Population variation in conduct problems would imply changes in the social environment, which would include emergent or receding risk factors. In the present study, we separated age, period, and cohort effects on conduct problems using nationally representative surveys of 375,879 US students conducted annually (1991-2015). The summed score of 7 items measuring the frequency of conduct problems was the outcome. Conduct problems have decreased during the past 25 years among boys; the total amount of the decrease was approximately 0.4 standard deviations (P < 0.01), and by item prevalence, the total amount of the decrease was 8%-11%. Declines are best explained by period effects beginning approximately in 2008, and a declining cohort effect beginning among those born after 1992, which suggests not only declines in population levels, but more rapid declines among younger cohorts of boys. Trends were also consistent with age-period-cohort effects on evenings spent out, which suggest a possible mechanism. Conduct problems among girls were lower than boys and did not demonstrate trends across time. These changes may reflect the changing nature of adolescence toward less unsupervised interaction.

SUBMITTER: Keyes KM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5860025 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Joint Effects of Age, Period, and Cohort on Conduct Problems Among American Adolescents From 1991 Through 2015.

Keyes Katherine M KM Gary Dahsan S DS Beardslee Jordan J Prins Seth J SJ O'Malley Patrick M PM Rutherford Caroline C Schulenberg John J

American journal of epidemiology 20180301 3

Although arrest rates among juveniles have substantially decreased since the 1990s, US national trends in conduct problems are unknown. Population variation in conduct problems would imply changes in the social environment, which would include emergent or receding risk factors. In the present study, we separated age, period, and cohort effects on conduct problems using nationally representative surveys of 375,879 US students conducted annually (1991-2015). The summed score of 7 items measuring t ...[more]

PMID: 28679165

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Project description:Background: Gastrointestinal (GI) cancers are the common cause of morbidity and mortality in China which seriously threaten people's health and lives. The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend in the epidemiology of GI cancers from 1991 to 2015, with an emphasis on the effects of age, period and cohort in Yangzhong City, Jiangsu province, a high-risk area of GI cancers in China. Methods: Our study extracted cases of gastric cancer, esophageal cancer and colorectal cancer diagnosed from 1991 to 2015 from Yangzhong Cancer Registry. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) were calculated and joinpoint regression was used to compute the estimated annual percent changes. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was performed to investigate the independent effects of age, calendar period, and birth cohort. Results: Between 1991 and 2015, 18,006 new cases and 10,262 deaths were registered with GI cancers in Yangzhong. The age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of gastric cancer decreased in both sexes during the study period. And the incidence rates of esophageal cancer stabilized at first then continued to decline, the turning point was in 2005 for men and 2001 for women. Changes in the mortality rates of gastric cancer and esophageal cancer showed significant declined trends around 2000-2010 in both genders. The incidence rates of colorectal cancer increased steadily during the entire study period, and the increase was more pronounced in the mortality rates of men. The results of APC analysis suggest that general decreases in incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer and gastric cancer might be caused by the downward trend of the period and cohort effects, while the increases in colorectal cancer might be caused by the uptrend of the period effects. Conclusions: The incidence and mortality rates of esophageal and gastric cancers showed a downward trend and colorectal cancer was on the rise as a whole in Yangzhong City. The different burden of gastrointestinal cancer indicating heterogeneous risk factors exist and may have contributed to these temporal variations.

Project description:BACKGROUND AND AIMS:As the legal status of cannabis changes across the United States and modes of administration expand, it is important to examine the potential impact on adolescent cannabis use. This study aimed to assess changes in prevalence of frequent cannabis use in adolescents in the United States and how far this varies by age and cohort. DESIGN:Analysis of Monitoring the Future, a nationally representative annual survey of 8th-, 10th- and 12th-grade students in the United States conducted from 1991 to 2018. SETTING:In-school surveys completed by US adolescents. PARTICIPANTS:A total of 1?236?159 8th-, 10th- and 12th-graders; 51.5% female, 59.6% non-Hispanic white, 12.3% non-Hispanic black, 13.4% Hispanic and 14.7% other race/ethnicity. MEASUREMENTS:Frequent cannabis use (FCU), defined as six or more occasions in the past 30 days, stratified by sex, race/ethnicity and parental education. FINDINGS:FCU among US adolescents increased over the study period; the peak in 2010-18 was 11.4% among 18-year-old students. This increase was best explained by both period and cohort effects. Compared with respondents in 2005, adolescents surveyed in 2018 had period effects in FCU that were 1.6 times greater. Adolescents in younger birth cohorts (those born > 1988) had a lower increase in FCU than those born prior to 1988. Results were consistent across sex, parent education and race/ethnicity, with period effects indicating increasing FCU after 2005 and cohort effects indicating a lower magnitude of increase in more recent birth cohorts. Age and parental education disparities in FCU have increased over time, whereas race/ethnicity differences have converged over time; black students were 0.67 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.64-0.70] times as likely to use cannabis frequently as white students from 1991 to 2000, and 1.03 (95% CI = 0.98-1.09) times as likely from 2011 to 2018 (P-value for time interaction < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS:The prevalence of frequent cannabis use (FCU) increased from 1991 to 2018 among older adolescents in the United States. Racial/ethnic differences in FCU converged, whereas parental education differences have diverged.

Project description:Exposure to community violence through witnessing or being directly victimized has been associated with conduct problems in a range of studies. However, the relationship between community violence exposure (CVE) and conduct problems has never been studied separately in healthy individuals and individuals with conduct disorder (CD). Therefore, it is not clear whether the association between CVE and conduct problems is due to confounding factors, because those with high conduct problems also tend to live in more violent neighborhoods, i.e., an ecological fallacy. Hence, the aim of the present study was: (1) to investigate whether the association between recent CVE and current conduct problems holds true for healthy controls as well as adolescents with a diagnosis of CD; (2) to examine whether the association is stable in both groups when including effects of aggression subtypes (proactive/reactive aggression), age, gender, site and socioeconomic status (SES); and (3) to test whether proactive or reactive aggression mediate the link between CVE and conduct problems. Data from 1178 children and adolescents (62% female; 44% CD) aged between 9 years and 18 years from seven European countries were analyzed. Conduct problems were assessed using the Kiddie-Schedule of Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia diagnostic interview. Information about CVE and aggression subtypes was obtained using self-report questionnaires (Social and Health Assessment and Reactive-Proactive aggression Questionnaire (RPQ), respectively). The association between witnessing community violence and conduct problems was significant in both groups (adolescents with CD and healthy controls). The association was also stable after examining the mediating effects of aggression subtypes while including moderating effects of age, gender and SES and controlling for effects of site in both groups. There were no clear differences between the groups in the strength of the association between witnessing violence and conduct problems. However, we found evidence for a ceiling effect, i.e., individuals with very high levels of conduct problems could not show a further increase if exposed to CVE and vice versa. Results indicate that there was no evidence for an ecological fallacy being the primary cause of the association, i.e., CVE must be considered a valid risk factor in the etiology of CD.

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Joint Effects of Age, Period, and Cohort on Conduct Problems Among American Adolescents From 1991 Through 2015.

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Joint Effects of Age, Period, and Cohort on Conduct Problems Among American Adolescents From 1991 Through 2015.

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