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Potential for Bias When Estimating Critical Windows for Air Pollution in Children's Health.

ABSTRACT: Evidence supports an association between maternal exposure to air pollution during pregnancy and children's health outcomes. Recent interest has focused on identifying critical windows of vulnerability. An analysis based on a distributed lag model (DLM) can yield estimates of a critical window that are different from those from an analysis that regresses the outcome on each of the 3 trimester-average exposures (TAEs). Using a simulation study, we assessed bias in estimates of critical windows obtained using 3 regression approaches: 1) 3 separate models to estimate the association with each of the 3 TAEs; 2) a single model to jointly estimate the association between the outcome and all 3 TAEs; and 3) a DLM. We used weekly fine-particulate-matter exposure data for 238 births in a birth cohort in and around Boston, Massachusetts, and a simulated outcome and time-varying exposure effect. Estimates using separate models for each TAE were biased and identified incorrect windows. This bias arose from seasonal trends in particulate matter that induced correlation between TAEs. Including all TAEs in a single model reduced bias. DLM produced unbiased estimates and added flexibility to identify windows. Analysis of body mass index z score and fat mass in the same cohort highlighted inconsistent estimates from the 3 methods.

SUBMITTER: Wilson A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5860147 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Potential for Bias When Estimating Critical Windows for Air Pollution in Children's Health.

Wilson Ander A Chiu Yueh-Hsiu Mathilda YM Hsu Hsiao-Hsien Leon HL Wright Robert O RO Wright Rosalind J RJ Coull Brent A BA

American journal of epidemiology 20171201 11

Evidence supports an association between maternal exposure to air pollution during pregnancy and children's health outcomes. Recent interest has focused on identifying critical windows of vulnerability. An analysis based on a distributed lag model (DLM) can yield estimates of a critical window that are different from those from an analysis that regresses the outcome on each of the 3 trimester-average exposures (TAEs). Using a simulation study, we assessed bias in estimates of critical windows ob ...[more]

PMID: 29206986

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Project description:IntroductionPrevious research has observed relationships between higher prenatal exposure to air pollutants and neurodevelopmental and academic outcomes later in childhood. Identifying intermediate outcomes mediating this relationship would inform prevention and intervention efforts. We aimed to investigate if previously observed associations between prenatal exposure to common urban air pollutants, diesel and perchloroethylene, and performance on third grade standardized tests were mediated through increased risk of preterm birth.MethodsData from the 1994-1998 birth cohorts within the New York City Longitudinal Study of Early Development were included in this analysis. Exposure was determined by linking the mother's residence at the time of delivery to the U.S. EPA's 1996 National Air Toxic Assessment of estimated ambient concentrations of diesel and perchloroethylene. Children's third grade standardized math and language tests were used as the markers for academic achievement. Missing data on covariates were imputed, while participants with missing information on gestational age and test scores were excluded. Linear regression models and causal mediation analysis were used to examine potential mediation by preterm birth.ResultsIn total, 187,723 and 196,122 participants were included in language and math analyses, respectively. Children with exposure to the fourth quartile of diesel or perchloroethylene had approximately 0.03 (95%CI: 0.02, 0.04) lower math z-scores when compared to individuals with exposure in the first quartile, although there was no consistent decreasing trend in math z-scores over increasing quartiles of diesel or perchloroethylene. We did not find evidence of mediation by preterm birth or exposure-mediator interaction in our models.ConclusionWe did not find evidence that observed relationships between exposure to common urban air pollutants and test z-scores in childhood were mediated through an increased risk of preterm birth. This suggests other pathways between early exposure to air pollution and neurodevelopment should be investigated with causal mediation approaches.

Dataset Information

Potential for Bias When Estimating Critical Windows for Air Pollution in Children's Health.

Publications

Potential for Bias When Estimating Critical Windows for Air Pollution in Children's Health.

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