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Plasma DNA methylation marker and hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction model for the general population.

ABSTRACT: Metastases in the later stages of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cause the majority of deaths associated with the disease, making early detection crucial to patient survival. Risk models assessing HCC risk in the general population can be used for risk stratification for further HCC surveillance, however, none have been validated externally. Methylation of circulating DNA shows potential for non-invasive diagnosis of HCC. We conducted a prospective case-control study nested within a community-based cohort. We measured methylation levels in six genes (CDKN2A, RASSF1A, STEAP4, TBX2, VIM and ZNF154) which were identified in our previous work, using pre-diagnostic plasma DNA from 237 HCC cases and 257 matched controls. We found TBX2 hypermethylation was associated with increased HCC risk, with ORs (95% CI) of 3.2 (1.8-6.0). The associations were mainly among high-risk subjects; among subjects infected with HBV/HCV, the OR (95% CI) of TBX2 methylation was 5.3 (2.2-12.7). Among subjects with high risk scores, the ORs (95% CIs) were 7.8 (1.5-38.6) for Wen-HCC model ?16, 5.8 (2.2-15.5) for Hung-HCC ?15 and 7.5 (2.2-26.0) for Michikawa-HCC ?8. Adding TBX2 methylation improved the accuracy of risk models for a high-risk population, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 76% for Wen-HCC score with TBX2 methylation compared with 69% with Wen-HCC alone. The AUCs were 63% for Hung-HCC score plus TBX2 methylation, and 53% for Hung-HCC alone, 65% for Michikawa-HCC score plus TBX2 methylation and 58% for Michikawa-HCC alone. Our findings suggest the potential increase in risk assessment discrimination and accuracy from incorporation of DNA methylation.

SUBMITTER: Wu HC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5862336 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Plasma DNA methylation marker and hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction model for the general population.

Wu Hui-Chen HC Yang Hwai-I HI Wang Qiao Q Chen Chien-Jen CJ Santella Regina M RM

Carcinogenesis 20171001 10

Metastases in the later stages of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cause the majority of deaths associated with the disease, making early detection crucial to patient survival. Risk models assessing HCC risk in the general population can be used for risk stratification for further HCC surveillance, however, none have been validated externally. Methylation of circulating DNA shows potential for non-invasive diagnosis of HCC. We conducted a prospective case-control study nested within a community-ba ...[more]

PMID: 28981677

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Project description:IntroductionAlfa-fetoprotein (AFP), as the main serum tumor marker of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is limited in terms of specificity and ability to predict outcomes. This study investigated the clinical utility of DNA methylation biomarkers to predict therapeutic responses and prognosis in intermediate-stage HCC.MethodsThis study enrolled 72 patients with intermediate-stage HCC who underwent locoregional therapy (LRT) between 2020 and 2021. The immediate therapeutic response and disease status during a two-year follow-up were recorded. Analysis was performed on 10 selected DNA methylation biomarkers via pyrosequencing analysis of plasma collected before and after LRT.ResultsAnalysis was performed on 53 patients with complete responses and 19 patients with disease progression after LRT. The mean follow-up duration was 2.4 ± 0.6 years. A methylation prediction model for tumor response (MMTR) and a methylation prediction model for early progression (MMEP) were constructed. The area under the curve (AUC) for sensitivity and specificity of MMTR was 0.79 for complete response and 0.759 for overall survival. The corresponding AUCs for sensitivity and specificity of AFP and protein induced by vitamin K absence-II (PIVKA-II) were 0.717 and 0.708, respectively. Note that the MMTR index was the only significant predictor in multivariate analysis. The AUC for sensitivity and specificity of the MMEP in predicting early progression was 0.79. The corresponding AUCs for sensitivity and specificity of AFP and PIVKA-II were 0.758 and 0.714, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that platelet count, beyond up-to-7 criteria, and the MMEP index were strongly correlated with early tumor progression. Combining the indexes and serum markers further improved the predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.922). Multivariate analysis revealed the MMEP index was the only independent risk factor for overall survival.Discussion/conclusionsThis study indicates that these methylation markers could potentially outperform current serum markers in terms of accuracy and reliability in assessing treatment response and predicting outcomes. Combining methylation markers and serum markers further improved predictive accuracy, indicating that a multi-marker approach may be more effective in clinical practice. These findings suggest that DNA methylation biomarkers may be a useful tool for managing intermediate-stage HCC patients and guiding personalized treatment, particularly for those who are at high risk for close surveillance or adjuvant treatment after LRT.

Dataset Information

Plasma DNA methylation marker and hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction model for the general population.

Publications

Plasma DNA methylation marker and hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction model for the general population.

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