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Time-varying effects of prognostic factors associated with long-term survival in breast cancer.

ABSTRACT: The impact of some prognostic factors on breast cancer survival has been shown to vary with time since diagnosis. However, this phenomenon has not been evaluated in Asians. In the present study, 4886 patients were recruited from the Shanghai Breast Cancer Survival Study, a longitudinal study of patients diagnosed during 2002-2006, with a median follow-up time of 11.2 years. Cox model incorporating time-by-covariate interactions was used to describe the time-varying effects of prognostic factors related to overall survival and disease-free survival. Age ?65 years showed a progressively negative effect on breast cancer prognosis over time, whereas tumour size >2?cm had a lasting and constant impact. Age significantly modified the effects of the tumour grade, nodal status and oestrogen receptor (ER) status on breast cancer survival. The detrimental effect of poorly differentiated tumours was time limited and more obvious in patients aged 45-54 years. Having ?4 positive lymph nodes had a persistent and negative impact on prognosis, although it attenuated in later years; the phenomenon was more prominent in the 55-64-year age group. ER-positive status was protective in the first 3 years after diagnosis but was related to a higher risk of recurrence in later years; the time-point when ER-positive status turned into a risk factor was earlier in younger patients. These results suggest that older age, positive lymph node status, larger tumour size and ER-positive status are responsible for late death or recurrence in Asian breast cancer survivors. Extended endocrine therapy should be given earlier in younger ER-positive patients.

SUBMITTER: Zhang M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5862777 | biostudies-literature | 2018 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Time-varying effects of prognostic factors associated with long-term survival in breast cancer.

Zhang Minlu M Peng Peng P Gu Kai K Cai Hui H Qin Guoyou G Shu Xiao Ou XO Bao Pingping P

Endocrine-related cancer 20180222 5

The impact of some prognostic factors on breast cancer survival has been shown to vary with time since diagnosis. However, this phenomenon has not been evaluated in Asians. In the present study, 4886 patients were recruited from the Shanghai Breast Cancer Survival Study, a longitudinal study of patients diagnosed during 2002-2006, with a median follow-up time of 11.2 years. Cox model incorporating time-by-covariate interactions was used to describe the time-varying effects of prognostic factors ...[more]

PMID: 29472247

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Project description:BackgroundRecent studies have indicated the prognostic value of tumour subtype and pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). However these results were reported after a short follow-up and using a standard Cox model which could be unsatisfactory for time-dependent factors. In the present study, we identified the prognostic factors for long-term outcome after NAC, considering that they could have an inconstant impact over time.MethodsPrognostic factors from 956 consecutive breast cancer patients treated with NAC were identified and associated with long-term outcomes. We estimated survival by a time function multivariate Cox model regression and stratified by follow-up length.ResultsThe prognostic value of tumour histological grade and hormone receptors status varied as distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI) increased. The multivariate analysis identified the following significant prognostic factors: tumour size, N stage, clinical and pathological response to NAC, hormone receptors (HR) status and histological tumour grade. The 'prognostic benefit' of low-grade and positive-HR status decreased over the years. Thus, in the early years after cancer diagnosis, the hazard ratio of distant recurrences in patients with positive-HR status increased from 0.26 (95% CI 0.1-0.4) at 6 months to 2.2 (95% CI 1.3-3.7) at 120 months. The histological tumour grade followed a similar trend. The hazard ratio of grade III patients compared with grade I was 1.83 (95% CI 1.1-2.8) at 36 months and diminished over time to 0.70 (95% CI 0.4-1.3) at 120 months. This indicates that the risk of recurrence for positive-HR patients was 74% lower at 6 months compared with the negative-hormone receptor group, but 30% higher at 5 years and more than double at 10 years. High-grade tumours presented a risk of 83% in the earlier years decreasing to 30% at 10 years versus the low-grade group.ConclusionFrom the present study, we conclude the importance of identifying time-dependent prognostic factors. Distant recurrence-free interval within women who receive NAC are influenced by achieving pCR and breast cancer subtype. Tumours with more aggressive biology have poorer survival during the first 5 years, but if they exceed this point their prognostic impact is no longer significant. Conversely, positive-HR patients remain at risk for distant recurrence for many years.

Project description:BackgroundColorectal cancer is the third most common cancer in the world. In this study, we assessed the long-term survival characteristics and prognostic associations and potential time-varying effects of clinico-demographic variables and two molecular markers (microsatellite instability (MSI) and BRAF Val600Glu mutation) in a population-based patient cohort followed up to ~?19?years.MethodsThe patient cohort included 738 incident cases diagnosed between 1999 and 2003. Cox models were used to analyze the association between the variables and a set of survival outcome measures (overall survival (OS), disease-specific survival (DSS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), metastasis-free survival (MFS), recurrence/metastasis-free survival (RMFS), and event-free survival (EFS)). Cox proportional hazard (PH) assumption was tested for all variables, and Cox models with time-varying effects were used if any departure from the PH assumption was detected.ResultsDuring the follow-up, ~?61% patients died from any cause, ~?26% died from colorectal cancer, and ~?10% and ~?20% experienced recurrences and distant metastases, respectively. Stage IV disease and post-diagnostic recurrence or metastasis were strongly linked to risk of death from colorectal cancer. If a patient had survived the first 6?years without any disease-related event (i.e., recurrence, metastasis, or death from colorectal cancer), their risks became very minimal after this time period. Distinct sets of markers were associated with different outcome measures. In some cases, the effects by variables were constant throughout the follow-up. For example, MSI-high tumor phenotype and older age at diagnosis predicted longer MFS times consistently over the follow-up. However, in some other cases, the effects of the variables varied with time. For example, adjuvant radiotherapy treatment was associated with increased risk of metastasis in patients who received this treatment after 5.5?years post-diagnosis, but not before that.ConclusionsThis study describes the long-term survival characteristics of a prospective cohort of colorectal cancer patients, relationships between baseline variables and a detailed set of patient outcomes over a long time, and time-varying effects of a group of variables. The results presented advance our understanding of the long-term prognostic characteristics in colorectal cancer and are expected to inspire future studies and clinical care strategies.

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Time-varying effects of prognostic factors associated with long-term survival in breast cancer.

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Time-varying effects of prognostic factors associated with long-term survival in breast cancer.

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