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HIV incidence among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa: mathematical modelling analysis.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:Emerging HIV epidemics have been documented among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This study estimates the HIV incidence among PWID due to sharing needles/syringes in MENA. It also delineates injecting drug use role as a driver of the epidemic in the population, and estimates impact of interventions. METHODS:A mathematical model of HIV transmission among PWID was applied in seven MENA countries with sufficient and recent epidemiological data and HIV prevalence ?1% among PWID. Estimations of incident and/or prevalent infections among PWID, ex-PWID and sexual partners of infected current and ex-PWID were conducted. RESULTS:The estimated HIV incidence rate for 2017 among PWID ranged between 0.7% per person-year (ppy) in Tunisia and 7.8% ppy in Pakistan, with Libya being an outlier (24.8% ppy). The estimated number of annual new infections was lowest in Tunisia (n = 79) and Morocco (n = 99), and highest in Iran and Pakistan (approximately n = 6700 each). In addition, 20 to 2208 and 5 to 837 new annual infections were estimated across the different countries among sexual partners of PWID and ex-PWID respectively. Since epidemic emergence, the number of total ever acquired incident infections across countries was 706 to 90,015 among PWID, 99 to 18,244 among sexual partners of PWID, and 16 to 4360 among sexual partners of ex-PWID. The estimated number of prevalent infections across countries was 341 to 23,279 among PWID, 119 to 16,540 among ex-PWID, 67 to 10,752 among sexual partners of PWID, and 12 to 2863 among sexual partners of ex-PWID. Increasing antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage to the global target of 81% - factoring in ART adherence and current coverage - would avert about half of new infections among PWID and their sexual partners. Combining ART with harm reduction could avert over 90% and 70% of new infections among PWID and their sexual partners respectively. CONCLUSIONS:There is considerable HIV incidence among PWID in MENA. Of all new infections ultimately due to injecting drug use, about 75% are among PWID and the rest among sexual partners. Of all prevalent infections ultimately attributed to injecting drug use as epidemic driver, about half are among PWID, 30% among ex-PWID and 20% among sexual partners of PWID and ex-PWID. These findings call for scale-up of services for PWID, including harm reduction as well as testing and treatment services.

SUBMITTER: Mumtaz GR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5867334 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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HIV incidence among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa: mathematical modelling analysis.

Mumtaz Ghina R GR Awad Susanne F SF Feizzadeh Ali A Weiss Helen A HA Abu-Raddad Laith J LJ

Journal of the International AIDS Society 20180301 3

<h4>Introduction</h4>Emerging HIV epidemics have been documented among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This study estimates the HIV incidence among PWID due to sharing needles/syringes in MENA. It also delineates injecting drug use role as a driver of the epidemic in the population, and estimates impact of interventions.<h4>Methods</h4>A mathematical model of HIV transmission among PWID was applied in seven MENA countries with sufficient and recent epid ...[more]

PMID: 29577623

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Project description:BackgroundIt is perceived that little is known about the epidemiology of HIV infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The primary objective of this study was to assess the status of the HIV epidemic among PWID in MENA by describing HIV prevalence and incidence. Secondary objectives were to describe the risk behavior environment and the HIV epidemic potential among PWID, and to estimate the prevalence of injecting drug use in MENA.Methods and findingsThis was a systematic review following the PRISMA guidelines and covering 23 MENA countries. PubMed, Embase, regional and international databases, as well as country-level reports were searched up to December 16, 2013. Primary studies reporting (1) the prevalence/incidence of HIV, other sexually transmitted infections, or hepatitis C virus (HCV) among PWIDs; or (2) the prevalence of injecting or sexual risk behaviors, or HIV knowledge among PWID; or (3) the number/proportion of PWID in MENA countries, were eligible for inclusion. The quality, quantity, and geographic coverage of the data were assessed at country level. Risk of bias in predefined quality domains was described to assess the quality of available HIV prevalence measures. After multiple level screening, 192 eligible reports were included in the review. There were 197 HIV prevalence measures on a total of 58,241 PWID extracted from reports, and an additional 226 HIV prevalence measures extracted from the databases. We estimated that there are 626,000 PWID in MENA (range: 335,000-1,635,000, prevalence of 0.24 per 100 adults). We found evidence of HIV epidemics among PWID in at least one-third of MENA countries, most of which are emerging concentrated epidemics and with HIV prevalence overall in the range of 10%-15%. Some of the epidemics have however already reached considerable levels including some of the highest HIV prevalence among PWID globally (87.1% in Tripoli, Libya). The relatively high prevalence of sharing needles/syringes (18%-28% in the last injection), the low levels of condom use (20%-54% ever condom use), the high levels of having sex with sex workers and of men having sex with men (15%-30% and 2%-10% in the last year, respectively), and of selling sex (5%-29% in the last year), indicate a high injecting and sexual risk environment. The prevalence of HCV (31%-64%) and of sexually transmitted infections suggest high levels of risk behavior indicative of the potential for more and larger HIV epidemics.ConclusionsOur study identified a large volume of HIV-related biological and behavioral data among PWID in the MENA region. The coverage and quality of the data varied between countries. There is robust evidence for HIV epidemics among PWID in multiple countries, most of which have emerged within the last decade and continue to grow. The lack of sufficient evidence in some MENA countries does not preclude the possibility of hidden epidemics among PWID in these settings. With the HIV epidemic among PWID in overall a relatively early phase, there is a window of opportunity for prevention that should not be missed through the provision of comprehensive programs, including scale-up of harm reduction services and expansion of surveillance systems.

Project description:Background and aimsPeople who inject drugs (PWID) are a key population at high risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The aim of this study was to delineate the epidemiology of HCV in PWID in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).MethodsSyntheses of data were conducted on the standardized and systematically assembled databases of the MENA HCV Epidemiology Synthesis Project, 1989-2018. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were performed. Meta-regression variables included country, study site, year of data collection and year of publication [to assess trends in HCV antibody prevalence over time], sample size and sampling methodology. Numbers of chronically infected PWID across MENA were estimated. The Shannon Diversity Index was calculated to assess genotype diversity.ResultsBased on 118 HCV antibody prevalence measures, the pooled mean prevalence in PWID for all MENA was 49.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 44.4-54.1%]. The country-specific pooled mean ranged from 21.7% (95% CI = 4.9-38.6%) in Tunisia to 94.2% (95% CI = 90.8-96.7%) in Libya. An estimated 221 704 PWID were chronically infected, with the largest numbers found in Iran at 68 526 and in Pakistan at 46 554. There was no statistically significant evidence for a decline in HCV antibody prevalence over time. Genotype diversity was moderate (Shannon Diversity Index of 1.01 out of 1.95; 52.1%). The pooled mean percentage for each HCV genotype was highest in genotype 3 (42.7%) and in genotype 1 (35.9%).ConclusionHalf of people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa appear to have ever been infected with hepatitis C virus, but there are large variations in antibody prevalence among countries. In addition to > 200 000 chronically infected current people who inject drugs, there is an unknown number of people who no longer inject drugs who may have acquired hepatitis C virus during past injecting drug use. Harm reduction services must be expanded, and innovative strategies need to be employed to ensure accessibility to hepatitis C virus testing and treatment.

Project description:BackgroundThe incidence of HIV infection among female sex workers and their clients in the Middle East and north Africa is not well known. We aimed to assess HIV incidence, the contribution of heterosexual sex work networks to these numbers, and the effect of interventions by use of mathematical modelling.MethodsIn this modelling study, we developed a novel, individual-based model to simulate HIV epidemic dynamics in heterosexual sex work networks. We applied this model to 12 countries in the Middle East and north Africa that had sufficient data to estimate incidence in 2020 and the impact of interventions by 2030 (Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Iran, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tunisia, and Yemen). Model-input parameters were provided through a systematic review of HIV prevalence, sexual and injecting behaviours, and risk group size estimates of female sex workers and clients. Model output was number of incident HIV infections under different modelling scenarios for each country. Summary statistics were generated on these model output scenarios.FindingsBased on the output of our model, we estimated a total of 14 604 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] CI 7929-31 819) new HIV infections in the 12 countries in 2020 among female sex workers, clients, and spouses, which constituted 28·1% of 51 995 total new cases in all adults in these 12 countries combined. Model-estimated number of new infections in 2020 in the 12 countries combined was 3471 (95% UI 1295-10 308) in female sex workers, 6416 (3144-14 223) in clients, and 4717 (3490-7288) in client spouses. Contribution of incidence in heterosexual sex work networks to total incidence varied widely, ranging from 3·3% in Pakistan to 71·8% in South Sudan and 72·7% in Djibouti. Incidence in heterosexual sex work networks was distributed roughly equally among female sex workers, clients, and client spouses. Estimated incidence rates among female sex workers per 1000 person-years ranged from 0·4 (95% UI 0·0-7·1) in Yemen to 34·3 (17·2-59·6) in South Sudan. In countries where HIV acquisition through injecting drug use creates substantial exposure for female sex workers who inject drugs, estimated incidence rates per 1000 person-years ranged from 5·1 (95% UI 0·0-35·1) in Iran to 45·8 (0·0-428·6) in Pakistan. The model output predicted that any of the programmed interventions would substantially reduce incidence. Even when a subpopulation did not benefit directly from an intervention, it benefited indirectly through reduction in onward transmission, and indirect impact was often half as large as the direct impact.InterpretationSubstantial HIV incidence occurs in heterosexual sex work networks across the Middle East and north Africa with client spouses being heavily affected, in addition to female sex workers and clients. Rapid scaling-up of comprehensive treatment and prevention services for female sex workers is urgently needed.FundingQatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation), the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Biomathematics Research Core at the Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Qatar University-Marubeni, the UK Medical Research Council, and the UK Department for International Development.

Project description:Purpose:The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region registers some of the lowest serum 25?hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations, worldwide. We describe the prevalence and the risk factors for hypovitaminosis D, completed and ongoing clinical trials, and available guidelines for vitamin D supplementation in this region. Methods:This review is an update of previous reviews published by our group in 2013 for observational studies, and in 2015 for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from the region. We conducted a comprehensive search in Medline, PubMed, and Embase, and the Cochrane Library, using MeSH terms and keywords relevant to vitamin D, vitamin D deficiency, and the MENA region, for the period 2012-2017 for observational studies, and 2015-2017 for RCTs. We included large cross-sectional studies with at least 100 subjects/study, and RCTs with at least 50 participants per arm. Results:We identified 41 observational studies. The prevalence of hypovitaminosis D, defined as a 25?hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] level below the desirable level of 20?ng/ml, ranged between 12-96% in children and adolescents, and 54-90% in pregnant women. In adults, it ranged between 44 and 96%, and the mean 25(OH)D varied between 11 and 20?ng/ml. In general, significant predictors of low 25(OH)D levels were female gender, increasing age and body mass index, veiling, winter season, use of sun screens, lower socioeconomic status, and higher latitude.We retrieved 14 RCTs comparing supplementation to control or placebo, published during the period 2015-2017: 2 in children, 8 in adults, and 4 in pregnant women. In children and adolescents, a vitamin D dose of 1000-2000?IU/d was needed to maintain serum 25(OH)D level at target. In adults and pregnant women, the increment in 25(OH)D level was inversely proportional to the dose, ranging between 0.9 and 3?ng/ml per 100?IU/d for doses ?2000?IU/d, and between 0.1 and 0.6?ng/ml per 100?IU/d for doses ?3000?IU/d. While the effect of vitamin D supplementation on glycemic indices is still controversial in adults, vitamin D supplementation may be protective against gestational diabetes mellitus in pregnant women. In the only identified study in the elderly, there was no significant difference between 600?IU/day and 3750?IU/day doses on bone mineral density. We did not identify any fracture studies.The available vitamin D guidelines in the region are based on expert opinion, with recommended doses between 400 and 2000?IU/d, depending on the age category, and country. Conclusion:Hypovitaminosis D is prevalent in the MENA region, and doses of 1000-2000?IU/d may be necessary to reach a desirable 25(OH)D level of 20?ng/ml. Studies assessing the effect of such doses of vitamin D on major outcomes, and confirming their long term safety, are needed.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Donor countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates (UAE) have been among the largest donors in the world. However, little is known about their contributions for health. In this study, we addressed this gap by estimating the amount of development assistance for health (DAH) contributed by MENA country donors from 2000 to 2017. METHODS:We tracked DAH provided and received by the MENA region leveraging publicly available development assistance data in the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) database of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), government agency reports and financial statements from key international development agencies. We generated estimates of DAH provided by the three largest donor countries in the MENA region (UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia) and compared contributions to their relative gross domestic product (GDP) and government spending; We captured DAH contributions by other MENA country governments (Egypt, Iran, Qatar, Turkey, etc.) disbursed through multilateral agencies. Additionally, we compared DAH contributed from and provided to the MENA region. RESULTS:In 2017, DAH contributed by the MENA region reached $514.8 million. While UAE ($220.1 million, 43.2%), Saudi Arabia ($177.3 million, 34.8%) and Kuwait ($59.8 million, 11.6%) as sources contributed the majority of DAH in 2017, 58.5% of total DAH from MENA was disbursed through their bilateral agencies, 12.0% through the World Health Organization (WHO) and 3.3% through other United Nations agencies. 44.8% of DAH contributions from MENA was directed to health system strengthening/sector-wide approaches. Relative to their GDP and government spending, DAH level fluctuated across 2000 to 2017 but UAE and Saudi Arabia indicated increasing trends. While considering all MENA countries as recipients, only 10.5% of DAH received by MENA countries were from MENA donors in 2017. CONCLUSION:MENA country donors especially UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have been providing substantial amount of DAH, channeled through their bilateral agencies, WHO and other multilateral agencies, with a prioritized focus on health system strengthening. DAH from the MENA region has been increasing for the past decade and could lend itself to important contributions for the region and the globe.

Dataset Information

HIV incidence among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa: mathematical modelling analysis.

Publications

HIV incidence among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa: mathematical modelling analysis.

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