Dataset Information

Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Contiguous United States.

ABSTRACT: The mosquitoes Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.)(Diptera:Culicidae) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera:Culicidae) transmit dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses and represent a growing public health threat in parts of the United States where they are established. To complement existing mosquito presence records based on discontinuous, non-systematic surveillance efforts, we developed county-scale environmental suitability maps for both species using maximum entropy modeling to fit climatic variables to county presence records from 1960-2016 in the contiguous United States. The predictive models for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus had an overall accuracy of 0.84 and 0.85, respectively. Cumulative growing degree days (GDDs) during the winter months, an indicator of overall warmth, was the most important predictive variable for both species and was positively associated with environmental suitability. The number (percentage) of counties classified as environmentally suitable, based on models with 90 or 99% sensitivity, ranged from 1,443 (46%) to 2,209 (71%) for Ae. aegypti and from 1,726 (55%) to 2,329 (75%) for Ae. albopictus. Increasing model sensitivity results in more counties classified as suitable, at least for summer survival, from which there are no mosquito records. We anticipate that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus will be found more commonly in counties classified as suitable based on the lower 90% sensitivity threshold compared with the higher 99% threshold. Counties predicted suitable with 90% sensitivity should therefore be a top priority for expanded mosquito surveillance efforts while still keeping in mind that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus may be introduced, via accidental transport of eggs or immatures, and potentially proliferate during the warmest part of the year anywhere within the geographic areas delineated by the 99% sensitivity model.

SUBMITTER: Johnson TL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5868335 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Contiguous United States.

Johnson Tammi L TL Haque Ubydul U Monaghan Andrew J AJ Eisen Lars L Hahn Micah B MB Hayden Mary H MH Savage Harry M HM McAllister Janet J Mutebi John-Paul JP Eisen Rebecca J RJ

Journal of medical entomology 20171101 6

The mosquitoes Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.)(Diptera:Culicidae) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera:Culicidae) transmit dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses and represent a growing public health threat in parts of the United States where they are established. To complement existing mosquito presence records based on discontinuous, non-systematic surveillance efforts, we developed county-scale environmental suitability maps for both species using maximum entropy modeling to fit clim ...[more]

PMID: 29029153

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Project description:BackgroundIn the Netherlands, Aedes albopictus has been found each year since 2010 during routine exotic mosquito species surveillance at companies that import used tires. We developed habitat suitability models to investigate the potential risk of establishment and spread of this invasive species at these locations.MethodsWe used two methodologies: first, a species distribution model based on the maximum entropy modelling approach (MaxEnt) taking into consideration updated occurrence data of the species in Europe, and secondly, a spatial logic conditional model based on the temperature requirements of the species and using land surface temperature data (LST model).ResultsSuitability assessment obtained with the MaxEnt model at European level accurately reflect the current distribution of the species and these results also depict moderately low values in parts of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, the British islands and southern parts of Scandinavia. Winter temperature was the variable that contributed most to the performance of the model (47.3%). The results of the LST model showed that: (i) coastal areas are suitable for overwintering of eggs; (ii) large areas in the northern part of the country have a low suitability for adult survival; and (iii) the entire country is suitable for successful completion of the life-cycle if the species is introduced after the winter months. Results of the LST model revealed that temperatures in 2012 and 2014 did not limit the overwintering of eggs or survival of adults at the locations where the species was found. By contrast, for the years 2010, 2011 and 2013, overwintering of eggs at these locations is considered unlikely.ConclusionsResults using two modelling methodologies show differences in predicted habitat suitability values. Based on the results of both models, the climatic conditions could hamper the successful overwintering of eggs of Ae. albopictus and their survival as adults in many areas of the country. However, during warm years with mild winters, many areas of the Netherlands offer climatic conditions suitable for developing populations. Regular updates of the models, using updated occurrence and climatic data, are recommended to study the areas at risk.

Project description:BACKGROUND: In the past ten years, the Indian Ocean region has been the theatre of severe epidemics of chikungunya and dengue. These outbreaks coincided with a high increase in populations of Aedes albopictus that outcompete its sister taxon Aedes aegypti in most islands sampled. The objective of this work was to update the entomological survey of the two Aedes species in the island of Madagascar which has to face these arboviroses. METHODS: The sampling of Aedes mosquitoes was conducted during two years, from October 2007 to October 2009, in fifteen localities from eight regions of contrasting climates. Captured adults were identified immediately whereas immature stages were bred until adult stage for determination. Phylogenetic analysis was performed using two mtDNA genes, COI and ND5 and trees were constructed by the maximum likelihood (ML) method with the gene time reversible (GTR) model. Experimental infections with the chikungunya virus strain 06.21 at a titer of 107.5 pfu/mL were performed to evaluate the vector competence of field-collected mosquitoes. Disseminated infection rates were measured fourteen days after infection by immunofluorescence assay performed on head squashes. RESULTS: The species Aedes aegypti was detected in only six sites in native forests and natural reserves. In contrast, the species Aedes albopictus was found in 13 out of the 15 sites sampled. Breeding sites were mostly found in man-made environments such as discarded containers, used tires, abandoned buckets, coconuts, and bamboo cuts. Linear regression models showed that the abundance of Ae. albopictus was significantly influenced by the sampling region (F = 62.00, p < 2.2 × 10(-16)) and period (F = 36.22, p = 2.548 × 10(-13)), that are associated with ecological and climate variations. Phylogenetic analysis of the invasive Ae. albopictus distinguished haplotypes from South Asia and South America from those of Madagascar, but the markers used were not discriminant enough to discern Malagasy populations. The experimental oral infection method showed that six Ae. albopictus populations exhibited high dissemination infection rates for chikungunya virus ranging from 98 to 100%. CONCLUSION: In Madagascar, Ae. albopictus has extended its geographical distribution whereas, Ae. aegypti has become rare, contrasting with what was previously observed. Changes are predominantly driven by human activities and the rainfall regime that provide suitable breeding sites for the highly anthropophilic mosquito Ae. albopictus. Moreover, these populations were found to be highly susceptible to chikungunya virus. In the light of this study, Ae. albopictus may have been involved in the recent outbreaks of chikungunya and dengue epidemics in Madagascar, and consequently, control measures should be promoted to limit its current expansion.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Aedes-borne diseases as dengue, zika, chikungunya and yellow fever are an emerging problem worldwide, being transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Lack of up to date information about the distribution of Aedes species hampers surveillance and control. Global databases have been compiled but these did not capture data in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), and any models built using these datasets fail to identify highly suitable areas where one or both species may occur. The first objective of this study was therefore to update the existing Ae. aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) and Ae. albopictus (Skuse, 1895) compendia and the second objective was to generate species distribution models targeted to the EMR. A final objective was to engage the WHO points of contacts within the region to provide feedback and hence validate all model outputs. METHODS:The Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus compendia provided by Kraemer et al. (Sci Data 2:150035, 2015; Dryad Digit Repos, 2015) were used as starting points. These datasets were extended with more recent species and disease data. In the next step, these sets were filtered using the Köppen-Geiger classification and the Mahalanobis distance. The occurrence data were supplemented with pseudo-absence data as input to Random Forests. The resulting suitability and maximum risk of establishment maps were combined into hard-classified maps per country for expert validation. RESULTS:The EMR datasets consisted of 1995 presence locations for Ae. aegypti and 2868 presence locations for Ae. albopictus. The resulting suitability maps indicated that there exist areas with high suitability and/or maximum risk of establishment for these disease vectors in contrast with previous model output. Precipitation and host availability, expressed as population density and night-time lights, were the most important variables for Ae. aegypti. Host availability was the most important predictor in case of Ae. albopictus. Internal validation was assessed geographically. External validation showed high agreement between the predicted maps and the experts' extensive knowledge of the terrain. CONCLUSION:Maps of distribution and maximum risk of establishment were created for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus for the WHO EMR. These region-specific maps highlighted data gaps and these gaps will be filled using targeted monitoring and surveillance. This will increase the awareness and preparedness of the different countries for Aedes borne diseases.

Project description:The rapid expansion of Zika virus (ZIKV), following the recent outbreaks of Chikungunya virus, overwhelmed the public health infrastructure in many countries and alarmed many in the scientific community. Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) have previously been incriminated as the vectors of these pathogens in addition to dengue virus. In our study, we challenged low generation Ae. aegypti (Chiapas, Mexico) and Ae. albopictus (North Carolina, Mississippi), with three strains of ZIKV, Puerto Rico (GenBank: KU501215), Honduras (GenBank: KX694534), and Miami (GenBank: MF988743). Following an oral challenge with 107.5 PFU/ml of the Puerto Rico strain, we observed high infection and dissemination rates in both species (95%). We report estimated transmission rates for both species (74 and 33%, for Ae. aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) and Ae. albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae), respectively), and the presence of a probable salivary gland barrier in Ae. albopictus to Zika virus. Finally, we calculated vectorial capacity for both species and found that Ae. albopictus had a slightly lower vectorial capacity when compared with Ae. aegypti.Second Language Abstract: La rápida expansión del virus Zika, poco después de las epidemias de chikungunya, rebaso la infraestructura de salud pública en muchos países y sorprendió a muchos en la comunidad científica. Notablemente, Aedes aegypti y Aedes albopictus transmiten estos patógenos además del virus del dengue. En este estudio se expusieron con tres cepas americanas de virus Zika a grupos de Aedes aegypti y Aedes albopictus de generación reciente. Encontramos altos porcentajes de infección y diseminación en ambas especies (95%). Se reporta, la transmisión viral en ambas especies (74 y 33%, para Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, respectivamente) y una probable barrera a nivel de glándulas salivarías. Finalmente, calculamos la capacidad vectorial para ambas especies.

Dataset Information

Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Contiguous United States.

Publications

Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Contiguous United States.

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