Dataset Information

Climate-mediated hybrid zone movement revealed with genomics, museum collection, and simulation modeling.

ABSTRACT: Climate-mediated changes in hybridization will dramatically alter the genetic diversity, adaptive capacity, and evolutionary trajectory of interbreeding species. Our ability to predict the consequences of such changes will be key to future conservation and management decisions. Here we tested through simulations how recent warming (over the course of a 32-y period) is affecting the geographic extent of a climate-mediated developmental threshold implicated in maintaining a butterfly hybrid zone (Papilio glaucus and Papilio canadensis; Lepidoptera: Papilionidae). These simulations predict a 68-km shift of this hybrid zone. To empirically test this prediction, we assessed genetic and phenotypic changes using contemporary and museum collections and document a 40-km northward shift of this hybrid zone. Interactions between the two species appear relatively unchanged during hybrid zone movement. We found no change in the frequency of hybridization, and regions of the genome that experience little to no introgression moved largely in concert with the shifting hybrid zone. Model predictions based on climate scenarios predict this hybrid zone will continue to move northward, but with substantial spatial heterogeneity in the velocity (55-144 km/1 °C), shape, and contiguity of movement. Our findings suggest that the presence of nonclimatic barriers (e.g., genetic incompatibilities) and/or nonlinear responses to climatic gradients may preserve species boundaries as the species shift. Further, we show that variation in the geography of hybrid zone movement could result in evolutionary responses that differ for geographically distinct populations spanning hybrid zones, and thus have implications for the conservation and management of genetic diversity.

SUBMITTER: Ryan SF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5877999 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climate-mediated hybrid zone movement revealed with genomics, museum collection, and simulation modeling.

Ryan Sean F SF Deines Jillian M JM Scriber J Mark JM Pfrender Michael E ME Jones Stuart E SE Emrich Scott J SJ Hellmann Jessica J JJ

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20180220 10

Climate-mediated changes in hybridization will dramatically alter the genetic diversity, adaptive capacity, and evolutionary trajectory of interbreeding species. Our ability to predict the consequences of such changes will be key to future conservation and management decisions. Here we tested through simulations how recent warming (over the course of a 32-y period) is affecting the geographic extent of a climate-mediated developmental threshold implicated in maintaining a butterfly hybrid zone ( ...[more]

PMID: 29463695

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Project description:Hybrid zones, where two divergent taxa meet and interbreed, offer unique opportunities to investigate how climate contributes to reproductive isolation between closely related taxa and how these taxa may respond to climatic changes. Red-naped (Sphyrapicus nuchalis) and Red-breasted (Sphyrapicus ruber) sapsuckers (Aves: Picidae) hybridize along a narrow contact zone that stretches from northern California to British Columbia. The hybrid zone between these species has been studied extensively for more than 100 years and represents an excellent system for investigations of the evolution of reproductive isolation. Shifts in the proportions of phenotypes at hybrid localities since 1910 that were inferred using specimens from museum collections were confirmed using species distribution models. We predicted the historical, current, and future distributions of parental and hybrid sapsuckers using Random Forests models to quantify how climate change is affecting hybrid zone movement in the Pacific Northwest. We found observed distribution shifts of parental sapsuckers were likely the result of climate change over the past 100 years, with these shifts predicted to continue for both sapsuckers over the next 80 years. We found Red-breasted Sapsuckers are predicted to continue to expand, while Red-naped Sapsuckers are predicted to contract substantially under future climate scenarios. As a result of the predicted changes, the amount of overlap in the distribution of these sapsuckers may decrease. Using hybrid phenotypes, we found the climate niche occupied by the hybrid zone is predicted to disappear under future conditions. The disappearance of this climate niche where the two parental species come into contact and hybridize may lead to a substantial reduction in genetic introgression. Understanding the impacts of global climate change on hybrid zones may help us to better understand how speciation has been shaped by climate in the past, as well as how evolution may respond to climate change in the future.

Project description:BackgroundMovements of hybrid zones - areas of overlap and interbreeding between species - are difficult to document empirically. This is true because moving hybrid zones are expected to be rare, and because movement may proceed too slowly to be measured directly. Townsend's warblers (Dendroica townsendi) hybridize with hermit warblers (D. occidentalis) where their ranges overlap in Washington and Oregon. Previous morphological, behavioral, and genetic studies of this hybrid zone suggest that it has been steadily moving into the geographical range of hermit warblers, with the more aggressive Townsend's warblers replacing hermit warblers along ?2000 km of the Pacific coast of Canada and Alaska. Ongoing movement of the zone, however, has yet to be empirically demonstrated.Methodology/principal findingsWe compared recently sampled hybrid zone specimens to those collected 10-20 years earlier, to test directly the long-standing hypothesis of hybrid zone movement between these species. Newly sampled specimens were more Townsend's-like than historical specimens, consistent with ongoing movement of the zone into the geographical range of hermit warblers.Conclusions/significanceWhile movement of a hybrid zone may be explained by several possible mechanisms, in this case a wealth of existing evidence suggests that movement is being driven by the competitive displacement of hermit warblers by Townsend's warblers. That no ecological differences have been found between these species, and that replacement of hermit warblers by Townsend's warblers is proceeding downward in latitude and elevation - opposite the directions of range shifts predicted by recent climate change - further support that this movement is not being driven by alternative environmental factors. If the mechanism of competitive displacement is correct, whether this process will ultimately lead to the extinction of hermit warblers will depend on the continued maintenance of the dramatic competitive asymmetry observed between the species.

Dataset Information

Climate-mediated hybrid zone movement revealed with genomics, museum collection, and simulation modeling.

Publications

Climate-mediated hybrid zone movement revealed with genomics, museum collection, and simulation modeling.

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