Dataset Information

Demographic compensation does not rescue populations at a trailing range edge.

ABSTRACT: Species' geographic ranges and climatic niches are likely to be increasingly mismatched due to rapid climate change. If a species' range and niche are out of equilibrium, then population performance should decrease from high-latitude "leading" range edges, where populations are expanding into recently ameliorated habitats, to low-latitude "trailing" range edges, where populations are contracting from newly unsuitable areas. Demographic compensation is a phenomenon whereby declines in some vital rates are offset by increases in others across time or space. In theory, demographic compensation could increase the range of environments over which populations can succeed and forestall range contraction at trailing edges. An outstanding question is whether range limits and range contractions reflect inadequate demographic compensation across environmental gradients, causing population declines at range edges. We collected demographic data from 32 populations of the scarlet monkeyflower (Erythranthe cardinalis) spanning 11° of latitude in western North America and used integral projection models to evaluate population dynamics and assess demographic compensation across the species' range. During the 5-y study period, which included multiple years of severe drought and warming, population growth rates decreased from north to south, consistent with leading-trailing dynamics. Southern populations at the trailing range edge declined due to reduced survival, growth, and recruitment, despite compensatory increases in reproduction and faster life-history characteristics. These results suggest that demographic compensation may only delay population collapse without the return of more favorable conditions or the contribution of other buffering mechanisms such as evolutionary rescue.

SUBMITTER: Sheth SN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5878003 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Demographic compensation does not rescue populations at a trailing range edge.

Sheth Seema Nayan SN Angert Amy Lauren AL

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20180220 10

Species' geographic ranges and climatic niches are likely to be increasingly mismatched due to rapid climate change. If a species' range and niche are out of equilibrium, then population performance should decrease from high-latitude "leading" range edges, where populations are expanding into recently ameliorated habitats, to low-latitude "trailing" range edges, where populations are contracting from newly unsuitable areas. Demographic compensation is a phenomenon whereby declines in some vital ...[more]

PMID: 29463711

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Project description:Understanding the demographic drivers of range contractions is important for predicting species' responses to climate change; however, few studies have examined the effects of climate change on survival and recruitment across species' ranges. We show that climate change can drive trailing edge range contractions through the effects on apparent survival, and potentially recruitment, in a migratory songbird. We assessed the demographic drivers of trailing edge range contractions using a long-term demography dataset for the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens) collected across elevational climate gradients at the trailing edge and core of the breeding range. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the effect of climate change on apparent survival and recruitment and to forecast population viability at study plots through 2040. The trailing edge population at the low-elevation plot became locally extinct by 2017. The local population at the mid-elevation plot at the trailing edge gradually declined and is predicted to become extirpated by 2040. Population declines were associated with warming temperatures at the mid-elevation plot, although results were more equivocal at the low-elevation plot where we had fewer years of data. Population density was stable or increasing at the range core, although warming temperatures are predicted to cause population declines by 2040 at the low-elevation plot. This result suggests that even populations within the geographic core of the range are vulnerable to climate change. The demographic drivers of local population declines varied between study plots, but warming temperatures were frequently associated with declining rates of population growth and apparent survival. Declining apparent survival in our study system is likely to be associated with increased adult emigration away from poor-quality habitats. Our results suggest that demographic responses to warming temperatures are complex and dependent on local conditions and geographic range position, but spatial variation in population declines is consistent with the climate-mediated range shift hypothesis. Local populations of black-throated blue warblers near the warm-edge range boundary at low latitudes and low elevations are likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change, potentially leading to local extirpation and range contractions.

Project description:Although all marine ecosystems have experienced global-scale losses, oyster reefs have shown the greatest. Therefore, substantial efforts have been dedicated to restoration of such ecosystems during the last two decades. In Europe, several pilot projects for the restoration of the native European flat oyster, Ostrea edulis, recently begun and recommendations to preserve genetic diversity and to conduct monitoring protocols have been made. In particular, an initial step is to test for genetic differentiation against homogeneity among the oyster populations potentially involved in such programs. Therefore, we conducted a new sampling of wild populations at the European scale and a new genetic analysis with 203 markers to (1) confirm and study in more detail the pattern of genetic differentiation between Atlantic and Mediterranean populations, (2) identify potential translocations that could be due to aquaculture practices and (3) investigate the populations at the fringe of the geographical range, since they seemed related despite their geographic distance. Such information should be useful to enlighten the choice of the animals to be translocated or reproduced in hatcheries for further restocking. After the confirmation of the general geographical pattern of genetic structure and the identification of one potential case of aquaculture transfer at a large scale, we were able to detect genomic islands of differentiation mainly in the form of two groups of linked markers, which could indicate the presence of polymorphic chromosomal rearrangements. Furthermore, we observed a tendency for these two islands and the most differentiated loci to show a parallel pattern of differentiation, grouping the North Sea populations with the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea populations, against geography. We discussed the hypothesis that this genetic parallelism could be the sign of a shared evolutionary history of the two groups of populations despite them being at the border of the distribution nowadays.

Dataset Information

Demographic compensation does not rescue populations at a trailing range edge.

Publications

Demographic compensation does not rescue populations at a trailing range edge.

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