Dataset Information

Projected impact of HPV vaccination and primary HPV screening on cervical adenocarcinoma: Example from Australia.

ABSTRACT: Cytology-based cervical screening appears to have had a limited effect on the incidence of adenocarcinoma, however HPV vaccination and HPV-based screening will likely play a role in reducing future burden. Using Australia as an example, we estimated the future burden (2015-2040) of adenocarcinoma in the absence of other interventions; and the impact of HPV vaccination (introduced 2007) and HPV-based screening (commencing 2017). Future burden was estimated considering underlying trends in adenocarcinoma, using national data (1982-2010). The relative reduction in adenocarcinoma due to HPV vaccination and HPV-based screening was derived from observed clinical data. Adenocarcinoma incidence rates have been increasing since the early-mid 2000s (average annual increases from 3.0%(25-49 years) -8.1%(20-24 years)). If these trends continue, rates would increase from 1.4 to 2.4/100,000 in <50 years and from 2.2 to 4.4/100,000 in 50+ years by 2040. Taking into account coverage, HPV vaccination will reduce 2040 incidence by 36-39%, mainly in women <50 years (61% reduction). Taking into account uncertainties in trends and screening effectiveness, HPV-based screening will reduce incidence by an additional 19-43%, mainly in women 50+ years (additional 30-68% reduction). Together, these interventions will reduce incidence by 55-81%.

SUBMITTER: Smith MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5883242 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projected impact of HPV vaccination and primary HPV screening on cervical adenocarcinoma: Example from Australia.

Smith Megan A MA Canfell Karen K

Papillomavirus research (Amsterdam, Netherlands) 20170419

Cytology-based cervical screening appears to have had a limited effect on the incidence of adenocarcinoma, however HPV vaccination and HPV-based screening will likely play a role in reducing future burden. Using Australia as an example, we estimated the future burden (2015-2040) of adenocarcinoma in the absence of other interventions; and the impact of HPV vaccination (introduced 2007) and HPV-based screening (commencing 2017). Future burden was estimated considering underlying trends in adenoca ...[more]

PMID: 28720447

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Project description:Many countries are transitioning from cytology-based to longer-interval HPV screening. Trials comparing HPV-based screening to cytology report an increase in CIN2/3 detection at the first screen, and longer-term reductions in CIN3+; however, population level year-to-year transitional impacts are poorly understood. We undertook a comprehensive evaluation of switching to longer-interval primary HPV screening in the context of HPV vaccination. We used Australia as an example setting, since Australia will make this transition in December 2017.Using a model of HPV vaccination, transmission, natural history and cervical screening, Policy1-Cervix, we simulated the planned transition from recommending cytology every two years for sexually-active women aged 18-20 to 69, to recommending HPV screening every five years for women aged 25-74 years. We estimated rates of CIN2/3, cervical cancer incidence, and mortality for each year from 2005 to 2035, considering ranges for HPV test accuracy and screening compliance in the context of HPV vaccination (current coverage ~82% in females; ~76% in males).Transient increases are predicted to occur in rates of CIN2/3 detection and invasive cervical cancer in the first two to three years following the screening transition (of 16-24% and 11-14% in respectively, compared to 2017 rates). However, by 2035, CIN2/3 and invasive cervical cancer rates are predicted to fall by 40-44% and 42-51%, respectively, compared to 2017 rates. Cervical cancer mortality rates are predicted to remain unchanged until ~2020, then decline by 34-45% by 2035. Over the period 2018-2035, switching to primary HPV screening in Australia is expected to avert 2,006 cases of invasive cervical cancer and save 587 lives.Transient increases in detected CIN2/3 and invasive cancer, which may be detectable at the population level, are predicted following a change to primary HPV screening. This is due to improved test sensitivity bringing forward diagnoses, resulting in longer term reductions in both cervical cancer incidence and mortality. Fluctuations in health outcomes due to the transition to a longer screening interval are predicted to occur for 10-15 years, but cervical cancer rates will be significantly reduced thereafter due to the impact of HPV vaccination and HPV screening. In order to maintain confidence in primary HPV screening through the transitional phase, it is important to widely communicate that an initial increase in CIN2/3 and perhaps even invasive cervical cancer is expected after a national transition to primary HPV screening, that this phenomenon is due to increased prevalent disease detection, and that this effect represents a marker of screening success.

Project description:BackgroundSeveral countries are implementing a transition to HPV testing for cervical screening in response to the introduction of HPV vaccination and evidence indicating that HPV screening is more effective than cytology. In Australia, a 2017 transition from 2-yearly conventional cytology in 18-20 to 69 years to 5-yearly primary HPV screening in 25 to 74 years will involve partial genotyping for HPV 16/18 with direct referral to colposcopy for this higher risk group. The objective of this study was to determine the optimal management of women positive for other high-risk HPV types (not 16/18) ('OHR HPV').MethodsWe used a dynamic model of HPV transmission, vaccination, natural history and cervical screening to determine the optimal management of women positive for OHR HPV. We assumed cytology triage testing was used to inform management in this group and that those with high-grade cytology would be referred to colposcopy and those with negative cytology would receive 12-month surveillance. For those with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology (considered to be a single low-grade category in Australia incorporating ASC-US and LSIL), we evaluated (1) the 20-year risk of invasive cervical cancer assuming this group are referred for 12-month follow-up vs. colposcopy, and compared this to the risk in women with low-grade cytology under the current program (i.e. an accepted benchmark risk for 12-month follow-up in Australia); (2) the population-level impact of the whole program, assuming this group are referred to 12-month surveillance vs. colposcopy; and (3) the cost-effectiveness of immediate colposcopy compared to 12-month follow-up. Evaluation was performed both for HPV-unvaccinated cohorts and cohorts offered vaccination (coverage ~72%).FindingsThe estimated 20-year risk of cervical cancer is ?1.0% at all ages if this group are referred to colposcopy vs. ?1.2% if followed-up in 12 months, both of which are lower than the ?2.6% benchmark risk in women with low-grade cytology in the current program (who are returned for 12-month follow-up). At the population level, immediate colposcopy referral provides an incremental 1-3% reduction in cervical cancer incidence and mortality compared with 12-month follow-up, but this is in the context of a predicted 24-36% reduction associated with the new HPV screening program compared to the current cytology-based program. Furthermore, immediate colposcopy substantially increases the predicted number of colposcopies, with >650 additional colposcopies required to avert each additional case of cervical cancer compared to 12-month follow-up. Compared to 12-month follow-up, immediate colposcopy has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of A$104,600/LYS (95%CrI:A$100,100-109,100) in unvaccinated women and A$117,100/LYS (95%CrI:A$112,300-122,000) in cohorts offered vaccination [Indicative willingness-to-pay threshold: A$50,000/LYS].ConclusionsIn primary HPV screening programs, partial genotyping for HPV16/18 or high-grade triage cytology in OHR HPV positive women can be used to refer the highest risk group to colposcopy, but 12-month follow-up for women with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology is associated with a low risk of developing cervical cancer. Direct referral to colposcopy for this group would be associated with a substantial increase in colposcopy referrals and the associated harms, and is also cost-ineffective; thus, 12-month surveillance for women with OHR HPV and low-grade cytology provides the best balance between benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness.

Project description:BackgroundThe transition of Australia's National Cervical Screening Program from cytology to a molecular test for human papillomavirus (HPV) (locally referred to as the 'Renewal'), including a longer five-year interval and older age at commencement, significantly impacted all sectors of program delivery. The Renewal had major implications for the roles and requirements of pathology laboratories providing services for the Program. This study aimed to understand the early impacts of the Renewal and its implementation on the pathology sector.MethodsSemi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with key stakeholders (N = 49) involved in the STakeholder Opinions of Renewal Implementation and Experiences Study (STORIES), 11-20 months after the program transition. A subset of interviews (N = 24) that discussed the pathology sector were analysed using inductive thematic analysis.ResultsFour overarching themes were identified: implementation enablers, challenges, missed opportunities, and possible improvements. Participants believed that the decision to transition to primary HPV screening was highly acceptable and evidence-based, but faced challenges due to impacts on laboratory infrastructure, resources, staffing, and finances. These challenges were compounded by unfamiliarity with new information technology (IT) systems and the new National Cancer Screening Register ('Register') not being fully functional by the date of the program transition. The limited availability of self-collection and lack of standardised fields in pathology forms were identified as missed opportunities to improve equity in the Program. To improve implementation processes, participants suggested increased pathology sector involvement in planning was needed, along with more timely and transparent communication from the Government, and clearer clinical management guidelines.ConclusionThe transition to primary HPV screening had a significant and multifaceted impact on the Australian pathology sector reflecting the magnitude and complexity of the Renewal. Strategies to support the pathology sector through effective change management, clear, timely, and transparent communication, as well as adequate funding sources will be critical for other countries planning to transition cervical screening programs.

Dataset Information

Projected impact of HPV vaccination and primary HPV screening on cervical adenocarcinoma: Example from Australia.

Publications

Projected impact of HPV vaccination and primary HPV screening on cervical adenocarcinoma: Example from Australia.

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