Dataset Information

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics.

ABSTRACT: Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel's Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species' available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to 'errors' (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario.

SUBMITTER: Troupin D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5886564 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics.

Troupin David D Carmel Yohay Y

PloS one 20180405 4

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be uti ...[more]

PMID: 29621330

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Project description:Globally, cities are growing rapidly in size and density and this has caused profound impacts on urban forest ecosystems. Urbanization requiring deforestation reduces ecosystem services that benefit both city dwellers and biodiversity. Understanding spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation changes associated with urbanization is thus a vital component of future sustainable urban development. We used Landsat time series data for three decades from 1988 to 2018 to characterize changes in vegetation cover and habitat connectivity in the Perth Metropolitan Area, in a rapidly urbanising Australian biodiversity hotspot, as a case study to understand the impacts of urbanization on urban forests. Moreover, as golf courses are a major component in urban areas, we assessed the role of golf courses in maintaining vegetation cover and creating habitat connectivity. To do this we employed (1) land use classification with post-classification change detection, and (2) Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA). Over 17,000 ha of vegetation were cleared and the area of vegetation contributing to biodiversity connectivity was reduced significantly over the three decades. The spatial patterns of vegetation loss and gain were different in each of the three decades (1988-2018) reflecting the implementation of urban planning. Furthermore, MSPA analysis showed that the reduction in vegetation cover led to habitat fragmentation with a significant decrease in the core and bridge classes and an increase in isolated patches in the urban landscape. Golf courses played a useful role in maintaining vegetation cover and contributing to connectivity in a regional biodiversity hotspot. Our findings suggest that for future urban expansion, urban planning needs to more carefully consider the impacts of deforestation on connectivity in the landscape. Moreover, there is a need to take into consideration opportunities for off-reserve conservation in smaller habitat fragments such as in golf courses in sustainable urban management.

Dataset Information

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics.

Publications

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics.

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