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High-throughput dietary exposure predictions for chemical migrants from food contact substances for use in chemical prioritization.

ABSTRACT: Under the ExpoCast program, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) researchers have developed a high-throughput (HT) framework for estimating aggregate exposures to chemicals from multiple pathways to support rapid prioritization of chemicals. Here, we present methods to estimate HT exposures to chemicals migrating into food from food contact substances (FCS). These methods consisted of combining an empirical model of chemical migration with estimates of daily population food intakes derived from food diaries from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). A linear regression model for migration at equilibrium was developed by fitting available migration measurements as a function of temperature, food type (i.e., fatty, aqueous, acidic, alcoholic), initial chemical concentration in the FCS (C0) and chemical properties. The most predictive variables in the resulting model were C0, molecular weight, log Kow, and food type (R2=0.71, p<0.0001). Migration-based concentrations for 1009 chemicals identified via publicly-available data sources as being present in polymer FCSs were predicted for 12 food groups (combinations of 3 storage temperatures and food type). The model was parameterized with screening-level estimates of C0 based on the functional role of chemicals in FCS. By combining these concentrations with daily intakes for food groups derived from NHANES, population ingestion exposures of chemical in mg/kg-bodyweight/day (mg/kg-BW/day) were estimated. Calibrated aggregate exposures were estimated for 1931 chemicals by fitting HT FCS and consumer product exposures to exposures inferred from NHANES biomonitoring (R2=0.61, p<0.001); both FCS and consumer product pathway exposures were significantly predictive of inferred exposures. Including the FCS pathway significantly impacted the ratio of predicted exposures to those estimated to produce steady-state blood concentrations equal to in-vitro bioactive concentrations. While these HT methods have large uncertainties (and thus may not be appropriate for assessments of single chemicals), they can provide critical refinement to aggregate exposure predictions used in risk-based chemical priority-setting.

SUBMITTER: Biryol D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5894819 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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High-throughput dietary exposure predictions for chemical migrants from food contact substances for use in chemical prioritization.

Biryol Derya D Nicolas Chantel I CI Wambaugh John J Phillips Katherine K Isaacs Kristin K

Environment international 20170831

Under the ExpoCast program, United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) researchers have developed a high-throughput (HT) framework for estimating aggregate exposures to chemicals from multiple pathways to support rapid prioritization of chemicals. Here, we present methods to estimate HT exposures to chemicals migrating into food from food contact substances (FCS). These methods consisted of combining an empirical model of chemical migration with estimates of daily population food intake ...[more]

PMID: 28865378

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Project description:Toxicokinetics (TK) provides critical information for integrating chemical toxicity and exposure assessments in order to determine potential chemical risk (i.e., the margin between toxic doses and plausible exposures). For thousands of chemicals that are present in our environment, in vivo TK data are lacking. The publicly available R package "httk" (version 1.8, named for "high throughput TK") draws from a database of in vitro data and physico-chemical properties in order to run physiologically-based TK (PBTK) models for 553 compounds. The PBTK model parameters include tissue:plasma partition coefficients (Kp) which the httk software predicts using the model of Schmitt (Toxicol In Vitro 22 (2):457-467, 2008). In this paper we evaluated and modified httk predictions, and quantified confidence using in vivo literature data. We used 964 rat Kp measured by in vivo experiments for 143 compounds. Initially, predicted Kp were significantly larger than measured Kp for many lipophilic compounds (log10 octanol:water partition coefficient > 3). Hence the approach for predicting Kp was revised to account for possible deficiencies in the in vitro protein binding assay, and the method for predicting membrane affinity was revised. These changes yielded improvements ranging from a factor of 10 to nearly a factor of 10,000 for 83 Kp across 23 compounds with only 3 Kp worsening by more than a factor of 10. The vast majority (92%) of Kp were predicted within a factor of 10 of the measured value (overall root mean squared error of 0.59 on log10-transformed scale). After applying the adjustments, regressions were performed to calibrate and evaluate the predictions for 12 tissues. Predictions for some tissues (e.g., spleen, bone, gut, lung) were observed to be better than predictions for other tissues (e.g., skin, brain, fat), indicating that confidence in the application of in silico tools to predict chemical partitioning varies depending upon the tissues involved. Our calibrated model was then evaluated using a second data set of human in vivo measurements of volume of distribution (Vss) for 498 compounds reviewed by Obach et al. (Drug Metab Dispos 36(7):1385-1405, 2008). We found that calibration of the model improved performance: a regression of the measured values as a function of the predictions has a slope of 1.03, intercept of - 0.04, and R2 of 0.43. Through careful evaluation of predictive methods for chemical partitioning into tissues, we have improved and calibrated these methods and quantified confidence for TK predictions in humans and rats.

Dataset Information

High-throughput dietary exposure predictions for chemical migrants from food contact substances for use in chemical prioritization.

Publications

High-throughput dietary exposure predictions for chemical migrants from food contact substances for use in chemical prioritization.

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