Dataset Information

Discontinuous Patterns of Cigarette Smoking From Ages 18 to 50 in the United States: A Repeated-Measures Latent Class Analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Effective cigarette smoking prevention and intervention programming is enhanced by accurate understanding of developmental smoking pathways across the life span. This study investigated within-person patterns of cigarette smoking from ages 18 to 50 among a US national sample of high school graduates, focusing on identifying ages of particular importance for smoking involvement change.

Aims and methods

Using data from approximately 15,000 individuals participating in the longitudinal Monitoring the Future study, trichotomous measures of past 30-day smoking obtained at 11 time points were modeled using repeated-measures latent class analyses. Sex differences in latent class structure and membership were examined.

Results

Twelve latent classes were identified: three characterized by consistent smoking patterns across age (no smoking; smoking < pack per day; smoking pack + per day); three showing uptake to a higher category of smoking across age; four reflecting successful quit behavior by age 50; and two defined by discontinuous shifts between smoking categories. The same latent class structure was found for both males and females, but membership probabilities differed between sexes. Although evidence of increases or decreases in smoking behavior was observed at virtually all ages through 35, 21/22 and 29/30 appeared to be particularly key for smoking category change within class.

Conclusions

This examination of latent classes of cigarette smoking among a national US longitudinal sample of high school graduates from ages 18 to 50 identified unique patterns and critical ages of susceptibility to change in smoking category within class. Such information may be of particular use in developing effective smoking prevention and intervention programming.

Implications

This study examined cigarette smoking among a national longitudinal US sample of high school graduates from ages 18 to 50 and identified distinct latent classes characterized by patterns of movement between no cigarette use, light-to-moderate smoking, and the conventional definition of heavy smoking at 11 time points via repeated-measures latent class analysis. Membership probabilities for each smoking class were estimated, and critical ages of susceptibility to change in smoking behaviors were identified.

SUBMITTER: Terry-McElrath YM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5896459 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Discontinuous Patterns of Cigarette Smoking From Ages 18 to 50 in the United States: A Repeated-Measures Latent Class Analysis.

Terry-McElrath Yvonne M YM O'Malley Patrick M PM Johnston Lloyd D LD

Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco 20171201 1

<h4>Introduction</h4>Effective cigarette smoking prevention and intervention programming is enhanced by accurate understanding of developmental smoking pathways across the life span. This study investigated within-person patterns of cigarette smoking from ages 18 to 50 among a US national sample of high school graduates, focusing on identifying ages of particular importance for smoking involvement change.<h4>Aims and methods</h4>Using data from approximately 15,000 individuals participating in t ...[more]

PMID: 28371840

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Project description:ImportanceUS adults born from 1965 to 1996 had high exposure to controlled medications, yet little is known about how this exposure has affected them over time. Prescription drug misuse (PDM) has increased among adults in the past 2 decades, with related increases in emergency department visits, overdoses, and deaths.ObjectivesTo identify 32-year PDM trajectories involving opioids, stimulants, and sedatives or tranquilizers and to examine associations between these PDM trajectories and substance use disorder (SUD) symptoms in adulthood as well as between baseline characteristics and PDM trajectories.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study included 11 cohorts of adolescents who were followed up longitudinally from age 18 years (study start, 1976-1986) to age 50 years (2008-2018) in the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, which included a national multistage random sample of US 12th grade students. Baseline surveys (modal age 18) were self-administered in classrooms. Ten follow-ups were conducted by mail. Data analysis was conducted from December 2020 to October 2021.Main outcomes and measuresSociodemographic variables were measured at baseline. PDM and SUD symptoms were measured at baseline and every follow-up. Latent profile analysis (LPA) was used to create PDM trajectory profiles. Associations between these PDM trajectories, SUD symptoms, and baseline sociodemographic characteristics were examined.ResultsThe sample of 26 575 individuals was 50.8% (95% CI, 50.2%-51.4%) female and 79.3% (95% CI, 78.8%-79.8%) White. The baseline response rate ranged from 77% to 84%, and the 32-year retention rate was 53%. In adjusting for attrition, 45.7% (95% CI, 44.9%-46.4%) of the respondents reported past-year PDM at least once during the 32-year reporting period. Among those who reported PDM, the prevalence of poly-PDM was 40.3% (95% CI, 39.3%-41.3%). Based on LPA, the number of class-specific PDM trajectories ranged from 4 (prescription opioids) to 6 (prescription stimulants). For the class-combined analyses, we identified 8 PDM trajectories consisting of early peak trajectories (eg, age 18 years), later peak trajectories (eg, age 40 years), and a high-risk trajectory (eg, high frequency PDM at multiple ages). All PDM trajectories were associated with increased odds of developing SUD symptoms in middle adulthood, especially the later peak and high-risk trajectories compared with early peak trajectories (eg, peak at age 40 years: adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 5.17; 95% CI, 3.97-6.73; high-risk: aOR, 12.41; 95% CI, 8.47-18.24). Baseline characteristics associated with a high-risk trajectory were binge drinking (aOR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.13-2.54), cigarette smoking (aOR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.60-3.29), and marijuana use (aOR, 3.78; 95% CI, 2.38-6.01). More recent cohorts (eg, 1985-1986) had a higher risk of belonging to later peak PDM trajectories (ages 40 and 45 years) than the 1976-1978 cohort (age 40 years peak: aOR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.69-3.68).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study, adults with later peak PDM trajectories were at increased risk of SUD symptoms in middle adulthood. These findings suggest the need to screen for PDM and SUD from adolescence through middle adulthood.

Dataset Information

Discontinuous Patterns of Cigarette Smoking From Ages 18 to 50 in the United States: A Repeated-Measures Latent Class Analysis.

Introduction

Aims and methods

Results

Conclusions

Implications

Publications

Discontinuous Patterns of Cigarette Smoking From Ages 18 to 50 in the United States: A Repeated-Measures Latent Class Analysis.

Similar Datasets

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