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Predicting enrollment performance of investigational centers in phase III multi-center clinical trials.

ABSTRACT: Failure to meet subject recruitment targets in clinical trials continues to be a widespread problem with potentially serious scientific, logistical, financial and ethical consequences. On the operational level, enrollment-related issues may be mitigated by careful site selection and by allocating monitoring or training resources proportionally to the anticipated risk of poor enrollment. Such procedures require estimates of the expected recruitment performance that are sufficiently reliable to allow centers to be sensibly categorized. In this study, we investigate whether information obtained from feasibility questionnaires can potentially be used to predict which centers will and which centers will not meet their enrollment targets by means of multivariable logistic regression analysis. From a large set of 59 candidate predictors, we determined the subset that is optimal for predictive purposes using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regularization. Although the extent to which the results are generalizable remains to be determined, they indicate that the prediction accuracy of the optimal model is only a marginal improvement over the intercept-only model, illustrating the difficulty of prediction in this setting.

SUBMITTER: van den Bor RM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5898520 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting enrollment performance of investigational centers in phase III multi-center clinical trials.

van den Bor Rutger M RM Grobbee Diederick E DE Oosterman Bas J BJ Vaessen Petrus W J PWJ Roes Kit C B KCB

Contemporary clinical trials communications 20170720

Failure to meet subject recruitment targets in clinical trials continues to be a widespread problem with potentially serious scientific, logistical, financial and ethical consequences. On the operational level, enrollment-related issues may be mitigated by careful site selection and by allocating monitoring or training resources proportionally to the anticipated risk of poor enrollment. Such procedures require estimates of the expected recruitment performance that are sufficiently reliable to al ...[more]

PMID: 29696188

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Project description:To quantify the variability among centers and to identify centers whose performance are potentially outside of normal variability in the primary outcome and to propose a guideline that they are outliers.Novel statistical methodology using a Bayesian hierarchical model is used. Bayesian methods for estimation and outlier detection are applied assuming an additive random center effect on the log odds of response: centers are similar but different (exchangeable). The Intraoperative Hypothermia for Aneurysm Surgery Trial (IHAST) is used as an example. Analyses were adjusted for treatment, age, gender, aneurysm location, World Federation of Neurological Surgeons scale, Fisher score and baseline NIH stroke scale scores. Adjustments for differences in center characteristics were also examined. Graphical and numerical summaries of the between-center standard deviation (sd) and variability, as well as the identification of potential outliers are implemented.In the IHAST, the center-to-center variation in the log odds of favorable outcome at each center is consistent with a normal distribution with posterior sd of 0.538 (95% credible interval: 0.397 to 0.726) after adjusting for the effects of important covariates. Outcome differences among centers show no outlying centers. Four potential outlying centers were identified but did not meet the proposed guideline for declaring them as outlying. Center characteristics (number of subjects enrolled from the center, geographical location, learning over time, nitrous oxide, and temporary clipping use) did not predict outcome, but subject and disease characteristics did.Bayesian hierarchical methods allow for determination of whether outcomes from a specific center differ from others and whether specific clinical practices predict outcome, even when some centers/subgroups have relatively small sample sizes. In the IHAST no outlying centers were found. The estimated variability between centers was moderately large.

Project description:IntroductionThe aim of this work is to examine the efficacy and safety of prefilled liquid etanercept-biosimilar Yisaipu versus lyophilized Yisaipu in active ankylosing spondylitis (AS) patients.MethodsThis double-blind, phase III trial with non-inferiority design randomized adult patients with active AS in a 3:1:1 ratio to receive twice-weekly 25-mg prefilled liquid Yisaipu for a total of 48 injections (group I, n = 330), once-weekly 50-mg prefilled liquid Yisaipu for 24 injections (group II, n = 110), or twice-weekly 25-mg lyophilized Yisaipu for 48 injections (group III, n = 110). Both physicians and patients who received 25-mg twice-weekly lyophilized or liquid Yisaipu were blinded to treatment assignment while patients who received 50-mg once-weekly liquid Yisaipu received treatment in an open-label design. In addition, 90 patients in the PK/PD study were randomized in a 1:1:1 ratio to each group. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients who achieved ASAS20 at week 24.ResultsA total of 640 subjects were enrolled. The proportion of patients who attained ASAS20 at week 24 was 85.56% in group I, 85.71% in group II, and 83.45% in group III (group I vs. III, P = 0.545; group II vs. III, P = 0.605). The difference between group I and III was 2.10% (95% CI - 5.06%, 9.27%) and 2.26% (95% CI - 6.21%, 10.73%) between group II and III, meeting the non-inferiority threshold (Δ = - 15%) (P < 0.001). Except for a statistical difference between group I (75.83%) and group III at week 8 (64.75%, P = 0.011), there was no statistical difference in the ASAS20 attainment rate among the three groups at other time points. The incidence of serious adverse events was comparable among the three groups (group I, 2.50%, II, 2.86% and III, 1.43%; P > 0.05). No deaths were reported.ConclusionsOnce-weekly 50-mg or twice-weekly 25-mg prefilled liquid Yisaipu is safe and non-inferior to twice-weekly 25-mg lyophilized Yisaipu.Trial registrationCTR20130124 and NCT04345458.

Dataset Information

Predicting enrollment performance of investigational centers in phase III multi-center clinical trials.

Publications

Predicting enrollment performance of investigational centers in phase III multi-center clinical trials.

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