Dataset Information

Scabies in residential care homes: Modelling, inference and interventions for well-connected population sub-units.

ABSTRACT: In the context of an ageing population, understanding the transmission of infectious diseases such as scabies through well-connected sub-units of the population, such as residential care homes, is particularly important for the design of efficient interventions to mitigate against the effects of those diseases. Here, we present a modelling methodology based on the efficient solution of a large-scale system of linear differential equations that allows statistical calibration of individual-based random models to real data on scabies in residential care homes. In particular, we review and benchmark different numerical methods for the integration of the differential equation system, and then select the most appropriate of these methods to perform inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo. We test the goodness-of-fit of this model using posterior predictive intervals and propagate forward the resulting parameter uncertainty in a Bayesian framework to consider the economic cost of delayed interventions against scabies, quantifying the benefits of prompt action in the event of detection. We also revisit the previous methodology used to assess the safety of treatments in small population sub-units-in this context ivermectin-and demonstrate that even a very slight relaxation of the implicit assumption of homogeneous death rates significantly increases the plausibility of the hypothesis that ivermectin does not cause excess mortality based upon the data of Barkwell and Shields.

SUBMITTER: Kinyanjui T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5898763 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Scabies in residential care homes: Modelling, inference and interventions for well-connected population sub-units.

Kinyanjui Timothy T Middleton Jo J Güttel Stefan S Cassell Jackie J Ross Joshua J House Thomas T

PLoS computational biology 20180326 3

In the context of an ageing population, understanding the transmission of infectious diseases such as scabies through well-connected sub-units of the population, such as residential care homes, is particularly important for the design of efficient interventions to mitigate against the effects of those diseases. Here, we present a modelling methodology based on the efficient solution of a large-scale system of linear differential equations that allows statistical calibration of individual-based r ...[more]

PMID: 29579037

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Project description:BackgroundScabies is an intensely itchy parasitic infection of the skin caused by the Sarcoptes scabiei mite. It is a common public health problem with an estimated global prevalence of 300 million cases. Serious adverse effects have been reported for some drugs used to treat scabies.ObjectivesTo evaluate topical and systemic drugs for treating scabies.Search strategyIn February 2007, we searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register, CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library 2006, Issue 1), MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS, and INDMED. In March 2007, we also searched the grey literature and sources for registered trials. We also checked the reference lists of retrieved studies.Selection criteriaRandomized controlled trials of drug treatments for scabies.Data collection and analysisTwo authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. Results were presented as relative risks with 95% confidence intervals and data combined where appropriate.Main resultsTwenty small trials involving 2392 people were included. One trial was placebo controlled, 16 compared two or more drug treatments, two compared treatment regimens, and one compared different drug vehicles.Fewer treatment failures occurred by day seven with oral ivermectin in one small trial (55 participants). Topical permethrin appeared more effective than oral ivermectin (85 participants, 1 trial), topical crotamiton (194 participants, 2 trials), and topical lindane (753 participants, 5 trials). Permethrin also appeared more effective in reducing itch persistence than either crotamiton (94 participants, 1 trial) or lindane (490 participants, 2 trials). One small trial did not detect a difference between permethrin (a synthetic pyrethroid) and a natural pyrethrin-based topical treatment (40 participants). No significant difference was detected in the number of treatment failures between crotamiton and lindane (100 participants, 1 trial), lindane and sulfur (68 participants, 1 trial), benzyl benzoate and sulfur (158 participants, 1 trial), and benzyl benzoate and natural synergized pyrethrins (240 participants, 1 trial); all were topical treatments. No trials of malathion were identified. No serious adverse events were reported. A number of trials reported skin reactions in participants randomized to topical treatments. There were occasional reports of headache, abdominal pain, diarrhoea, vomiting, and hypotension.Authors' conclusionsTopical permethrin appears to be the most effective treatment for scabies. Ivermectin appears to be an effective oral treatment. More research is needed on the effectiveness of malathion, particularly when compared to permethrin, and on the management of scabies in an institutional setting and at a community level.

Project description:BackgroundOlder people living in care homes in England have complex health needs due to a range of medical conditions, mental health needs and frailty. Despite an increasing policy expectation that professionals should operate in an integrated way across organisational boundaries, there is a lack of understanding between care homes and the National Health Service (NHS) about how the two sectors should work together, meaning that residents can experience a poor "fit" between their needs, and services they can access. This paper describes a survey to establish the current extent of integrated working that exists between care homes and primary and community health and social services.MethodsA self-completion, online questionnaire was designed by the research team. Items on the different dimensions of integration (funding, administrative, organisational, service delivery, clinical care) were included. The survey was sent to a random sample of residential care homes with more than 25 beds (n = 621) in England in 2009. Responses were analysed using quantitative and qualitative methods.ResultsThe survey achieved an overall response rate of 15.8%. Most care homes (78.7%) worked with more than one general practice. Respondents indicated that a mean of 14.1 professionals/ services (other than GPs) had visited the care homes in the last six months (SD 5.11, median 14); a mean of .39 (SD.163) professionals/services per bed. The most frequent services visiting were district nursing, chiropody and community psychiatric nurses. Many (60%) managers considered that they worked with the NHS in an integrated way, including sharing documents, engaging in integrated care planning and joint learning and training. However, some care home managers cited working practices dictated by NHS methods of service delivery and priorities for care, rather than those of the care home or residents, a lack of willingness by NHS professionals to share information, and low levels of respect for the experience and knowledge of care home staff.ConclusionsCare homes are a hub for a wide range of NHS activity, but this is ad hoc with no recognised way to support working together. Integration between care homes and local health services is only really evident at the level of individual working relationships and reflects patterns of collaborative working rather than integration. More integrated working between care homes and primary health services has the potential to improve quality of care in a cost-effective manner, but strategic decisions to create more formal arrangements are required to bring this about. Commissioners of services for older people need to capitalise on good working relationships and address idiosyncratic patterns of provision to care homes.The low response rate is indicative of the difficulty of undertaking research in care homes.

Dataset Information

Scabies in residential care homes: Modelling, inference and interventions for well-connected population sub-units.

Publications

Scabies in residential care homes: Modelling, inference and interventions for well-connected population sub-units.

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