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Global increase and geographic convergence in antibiotic consumption between 2000 and 2015.

ABSTRACT: Tracking antibiotic consumption patterns over time and across countries could inform policies to optimize antibiotic prescribing and minimize antibiotic resistance, such as setting and enforcing per capita consumption targets or aiding investments in alternatives to antibiotics. In this study, we analyzed the trends and drivers of antibiotic consumption from 2000 to 2015 in 76 countries and projected total global antibiotic consumption through 2030. Between 2000 and 2015, antibiotic consumption, expressed in defined daily doses (DDD), increased 65% (21.1-34.8 billion DDDs), and the antibiotic consumption rate increased 39% (11.3-15.7 DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants per day). The increase was driven by low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where rising consumption was correlated with gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC) growth (P = 0.004). In high-income countries (HICs), although overall consumption increased modestly, DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants per day fell 4%, and there was no correlation with GDPPC. Of particular concern was the rapid increase in the use of last-resort compounds, both in HICs and LMICs, such as glycylcyclines, oxazolidinones, carbapenems, and polymyxins. Projections of global antibiotic consumption in 2030, assuming no policy changes, were up to 200% higher than the 42 billion DDDs estimated in 2015. Although antibiotic consumption rates in most LMICs remain lower than in HICs despite higher bacterial disease burden, consumption in LMICs is rapidly converging to rates similar to HICs. Reducing global consumption is critical for reducing the threat of antibiotic resistance, but reduction efforts must balance access limitations in LMICs and take account of local and global resistance patterns.

SUBMITTER: Klein EY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5899442 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Global increase and geographic convergence in antibiotic consumption between 2000 and 2015.

Klein Eili Y EY Van Boeckel Thomas P TP Martinez Elena M EM Pant Suraj S Gandra Sumanth S Levin Simon A SA Goossens Herman H Laxminarayan Ramanan R

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20180326 15

Tracking antibiotic consumption patterns over time and across countries could inform policies to optimize antibiotic prescribing and minimize antibiotic resistance, such as setting and enforcing per capita consumption targets or aiding investments in alternatives to antibiotics. In this study, we analyzed the trends and drivers of antibiotic consumption from 2000 to 2015 in 76 countries and projected total global antibiotic consumption through 2030. Between 2000 and 2015, antibiotic consumption, ...[more]

PMID: 29581252

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Project description:BackgroundAlthough the natural history of vestibular schwannomas (VS) has been previously studied, few studies have investigated associated epidemiological factors, primarily because of the lack of large available cohorts.ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to perform a multi-scale geographical analysis of the period prevalence of VS in West Scotland from 2000 to 2015.MethodsAdults diagnosed with sporadic VS were identified through the National Health Services of West Scotland database and geocoded to the unit postcode. To assess whether the cohort of VS cases could be pooled into a period prevalence measure, the locations of VS cases were analyzed by sex using Cross-L and Difference-K functions. VS period prevalence was examined at two aggregate spatial scales: the postcode district and a coarser scale of NHS Health Boards. The spatial structure of period prevalence within each level of spatial aggregation was measured using univariate global and local Moran's I. Bivariate local Moran's I was used to examine the between-scale variability in period prevalence from the postcode district level to the NHS Health Boards levels. Prior to spatial autocorrelation analyses, the period prevalence at the postcode district was tested for stratified spatial heterogeneity within the NHS Health Boards using Wang's q-Statistic.ResultsA total of 512 sporadic VS were identified in a population of over 3.1 million. Between 2000 and 2015, VS period prevalence was highest within the NHS Health Boards of Greater Glasgow and Clyde, Ayrshire and Arran and the Western Isles. However, at the NHS scale, period prevalence exhibited no spatial autocorrelation globally or locally. At the district scale, Highland exhibited the most unusual local spatial autocorrelation. Bivariate local Moran's I results indicated general stability of period prevalence across the postcode district to Health Boards scales. However, locally, some postcode districts in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, Ayrshire and Arran exhibited unusually low district to zone spatial autocorrelation in period prevalence, as did the southern parts of the Western Isles. Some unusually high period prevalence values between the postcode district to Health Board scale were found in Tayside, Forth Valley and Dumfries and Galloway.ConclusionGeographic variability in VS in West Scotland was identified in this patient population, showing that there are areas, even remote, with unusually high or low period prevalence. This can be partially attributed to links between primary and tertiary care. Potential genetic or environmental risk factors that may contribute to geographic variation in this disease within Scotland are also a possibility but require further investigation.

Project description:BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a serious threat to global public health. WHO emphasises the need for countries to monitor antibiotic consumption to combat AMR. Many low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) lack surveillance capacity; we aimed to use multiple data sources and statistical models to estimate global antibiotic consumption.MethodsIn this spatial modelling study, we used individual-level data from household surveys to inform a Bayesian geostatistical model of antibiotic usage in children (aged <5 years) with lower respiratory tract infections in LMICs. Antibiotic consumption data were obtained from multiple sources, including IQVIA, WHO, and the European Surveillance of Antimicrobial Consumption Network (ESAC-Net). The estimates of the antibiotic usage model were used alongside sociodemographic and health covariates to inform a model of total antibiotic consumption in LMICs. This was combined with a single model of antibiotic consumption in high-income countries to produce estimates of antibiotic consumption covering 204 countries and 19 years.FindingsWe analysed 209 surveys done between 2000 and 2018, covering 284 045 children with lower respiratory tract infections. We identified large national and subnational variations of antibiotic usage in LMICs, with the lowest levels estimated in sub-Saharan Africa and the highest in eastern Europe and central Asia. We estimated a global antibiotic consumption rate of 14·3 (95% uncertainty interval 13·2-15·6) defined daily doses (DDD) per 1000 population per day in 2018 (40·2 [37·2-43·7] billion DDD), an increase of 46% from 9·8 (9·2-10·5) DDD per 1000 per day in 2000. We identified large spatial disparities, with antibiotic consumption rates varying from 5·0 (4·8-5·3) DDD per 1000 per day in the Philippines to 45·9 DDD per 1000 per day in Greece in 2018. Additionally, we present trends in consumption of different classes of antibiotics for selected Global Burden of Disease study regions using the IQVIA, WHO, and ESAC-net input data. We identified large increases in the consumption of fluoroquinolones and third-generation cephalosporins in North Africa and Middle East, and south Asia.InterpretationTo our knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates antibiotic usage and consumption data and uses geostatistical modelling techniques to estimate antibiotic consumption for 204 countries from 2000 to 2018. Our analysis identifies both high rates of antibiotic consumption and a lack of access to antibiotics, providing a benchmark for future interventions.FundingFleming Fund, UK Department of Health and Social Care; Wellcome Trust; and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundLimited evidence is available regarding the association between heat exposure and morbidity in Brazil and how the effect of heat exposure on health outcomes may change over time.ObjectivesThis study sought to quantify the geographic, demographic and temporal variations in the heat–hospitalization association in Brazil from 2000–2015.MethodsData on hospitalization and meteorological conditions were collected from 1,814 cities during the 2000–2015 hot seasons. Quasi-Poisson regression with constrained lag model was applied to examine city-specific estimates, which were then pooled at the regional and national levels using random-effect meta-analyses. Stratified analyses were performed by sex, 10 age groups, and 11 cause categories. Meta-regression was used to examine the temporal change in estimates of heat effect from 2000 to 2015.ResultsFor every 5°C increase in daily mean temperature during the 2000–2015 hot seasons, the estimated risk of hospitalization over lag 0-7 d rose by 4.0% [95% confidence interval (CI): 3.7%, 4.3%] nationwide. Estimated 6.2% [95% empirical CI (eCI): 3.3%, 9.1%] of hospitalizations were attributable to heat exposure, equating to 132 cases (95% eCI: 69%, 192%) per 100,000 residents. The attributable rate was greatest in children [Formula: see text] and was highest for hospitalizations due to infectious and parasitic diseases. Women of reproductive age and those [Formula: see text] had higher heat burden than men. The attributable burden was greatest for cities in the central west and the inland of the northeast; lowest in the north and eastern coast. Over the 16-y period, the estimated heat effects declined insignificantly at the national level.ConclusionsIn Brazil's hot seasons, 6% of hospitalizations were estimated to be attributed to heat exposure. As there was no evidence indicating that thermal adaptation had occurred at the national level, the burden of hospitalization associated with heat exposure in Brazil is likely to increase in the context of global warming. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3889.

Project description:BackgroundThe rapid increase of bacterial antibiotic resistance could soon render our most effective method to address infections obsolete. Factors influencing pathogen resistance prevalence in human populations remain poorly described, though temperature is known to contribute to mechanisms of spread.AimTo quantify the role of temperature, spatially and temporally, as a mechanistic modulator of transmission of antibiotic resistant microbes.MethodsAn ecologic analysis was performed on country-level antibiotic resistance prevalence in three common bacterial pathogens across 28 European countries, collectively representing over 4 million tested isolates. Associations of minimum temperature and other predictors with change in antibiotic resistance rates over 17 years (2000-2016) were evaluated with multivariable models. The effects of predictors on the antibiotic resistance rate change across geographies were quantified.ResultsDuring 2000-2016, for Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae, European countries with 10°C warmer ambient minimum temperatures compared to others, experienced more rapid resistance increases across all antibiotic classes. Increases ranged between 0.33%/year (95% CI: 0.2 to 0.5) and 1.2%/year (95% CI: 0.4 to 1.9), even after accounting for recognised resistance drivers including antibiotic consumption and population density. For Staphylococcus aureus a decreasing relationship of -0.4%/year (95% CI: -0.7 to 0.0) was found for meticillin resistance, reflecting widespread declines in meticillin-resistant S. aureus across Europe over the study period.ConclusionWe found evidence of a long-term effect of ambient minimum temperature on antibiotic resistance rate increases in Europe. Ambient temperature might considerably influence antibiotic resistance growth rates, and explain geographic differences observed in cross-sectional studies. Rising temperatures globally may hasten resistance spread, complicating mitigation efforts.

Project description:BackgroundGlobal child mortality reduced substantially during the Millennium Development Goal period (2000-15). We aimed to estimate morbidity, mortality, and prevalence of risk factors for child pneumonia at the global, regional, and national level for developing countries for the Millennium Development Goal period.MethodsWe estimated the incidence, number of hospital admissions, and in-hospital mortality due to all-cause clinical pneumonia in children younger than 5 years in developing countries at 5-year intervals during the Millennium Development Goal period (2000-15) using data from a systematic review and Poisson regression. We estimated the incidence and number of cases of clinical pneumonia, and the pneumonia burden attributable to HIV for 132 developing countries using a risk-factor-based model that used Demographic and Health Survey data on prevalence of the various risk factors for child pneumonia. We also estimated pneumonia mortality in young children using data from multicause models based on vital registration and verbal autopsy.FindingsGlobally, the number of episodes of clinical pneumonia in young children decreased by 22% from 178 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 110-289) in 2000 to 138 million (86-226) in 2015. In 2015, India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan, and China contributed to more than 54% of all global pneumonia cases, with 32% of the global burden from India alone. Between 2000 and 2015, the burden of clinical pneumonia attributable to HIV decreased by 45%. Between 2000 and 2015, global hospital admissions for child pneumonia increased by 2·9 times with a more rapid increase observed in the WHO South-East Asia Region than the African Region. Pneumonia deaths in this age group decreased from 1·7 million (95% UI 1·7-2·0) in 2000 to 0·9 million (0·8-1·1) in 2015. In 2015, 49% of global pneumonia deaths occurred in India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Ethiopia collectively. All key risk factors for child pneumonia (non-exclusive breastfeeding, crowding, malnutrition, indoor air pollution, incomplete immunisation, and paediatric HIV), with the exception of low birthweight, decreased across all regions between 2000 and 2015.InterpretationGlobally, the incidence of child pneumonia decreased by 30% and mortality decreased by 51% during the Millennium Development Goal period. These reductions are consistent with the decrease in the prevalence of some of the key risk factors for pneumonia, increasing socioeconomic development and preventive interventions, improved access to care, and quality of care in hospitals. However, intersectoral action is required to improve socioeconomic conditions and increase coverage of interventions targeting risk factors for child pneumonia to accelerate decline in pneumonia mortality and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals for health by 2030.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Global increase and geographic convergence in antibiotic consumption between 2000 and 2015.

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Global increase and geographic convergence in antibiotic consumption between 2000 and 2015.

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