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Surveillance on the endemic of Zika virus infection by meteorological factors in Colombia: a population-based spatial and temporal study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is a pandemic and a public health emergency. It is transmitted by mosquitoes, primarily the Aedes genus. In light of no treatment currently, it is crucial to develop effective vector control programs to prevent the spread of ZIKV infection earlier when observing possible risk factors, such as weather conditions enhancing mosquito breeding and surviving. METHODS:This study collected daily meteorological measurements and weekly ZIKV infectious cases among 32 departments of Colombia from January 2015-December 2016. This study applied the distributed lag nonlinear model to estimate the association between the number of ZIKA virus infection and meteorological measurements, controlling for spatial and temporal variations. We examined at most three meteorological factors with 20 lags in weeks in the model. RESULTS:Average humidity, total rainfall, and maximum temperature were more predictable of ZIKV infection outbreaks than other meteorological factors. Our models can detect significantly lagged effects of average humidity, total rainfall, and maximum temperature on outbreaks up to 15, 14, and 20 weeks, respectively. The spatial analysis identified 12 departments with a significant threat of ZIKV, and eight of those high-risk departments were located between the Equator and 6°N. The outbreak prediction also performed well in identified high-risk departments. CONCLUSION:Our results demonstrate that meteorological factors could be used for predicting ZIKV epidemics. Building an early warning surveillance system is important for preventing ZIKV infection, particularly in endemic areas.

SUBMITTER: Chien LC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5905128 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Surveillance on the endemic of Zika virus infection by meteorological factors in Colombia: a population-based spatial and temporal study.

Chien Lung-Chang LC Lin Ro-Ting RT Liao Yunqi Y Sy Francisco S FS Pérez Adriana A

BMC infectious diseases 20180417 1

<h4>Background</h4>Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is a pandemic and a public health emergency. It is transmitted by mosquitoes, primarily the Aedes genus. In light of no treatment currently, it is crucial to develop effective vector control programs to prevent the spread of ZIKV infection earlier when observing possible risk factors, such as weather conditions enhancing mosquito breeding and surviving.<h4>Methods</h4>This study collected daily meteorological measurements and weekly ZIKV infectious ...[more]

PMID: 29665783

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Several Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks have occurred since October 2015. Because there is no effective treatment for ZIKV infection, developing an effective surveillance and warning system is currently a high priority to prevent ZIKV infection. Despite Aedes mosquitos having been known to spread ZIKV, the calculation approach is diverse, and only applied to local areas. This study used meteorological measurements to monitor ZIKV infection due to the high correlation between climate change and Aedes mosquitos and the convenience to obtain meteorological data from weather monitoring stations. METHODS:This study applied the Bayesian structured additive regression modeling approach to include spatial interactive terms with meteorological factors and a geospatial function in a zero-inflated Poisson model. The study area contained 32 administrative departments in Colombia from October 2015 to December 2017. Weekly ZIKV infection cases and daily meteorological measurements were collected. Mapping techniques were adopted to visualize spatial findings. A series of model selections determined the best combinations of meteorological factors in the same model. RESULTS:When multiple meteorological factors are considered in the same model, both total rainfall and average temperature can best assess the geographic disparities of ZIKV infection. Meanwhile, a 1-in. increase in rainfall is associated with an increase in the logarithm of relative risk (logRR) of ZIKV infection of at most 1.66 (95% credible interval [CI]?=?1.09, 2.15) as well as a 1?°F increase in average temperature is significantly associated with at most 0.79 (95% CI?=?0.12, 1.22) increase in the logRR of ZIKV. Moreover, after controlling rainfall and average temperature, an independent geospatial function in the model results in two departments with an excessive ZIKV risk which may be explained by unobserved factors other than total rainfall and average temperature. CONCLUSION:Our study found that meteorological factors are significantly associated with ZIKV infection across departments. The study determined both total rainfall and average temperature as the best meteorological factors to identify high risk departments of ZIKV infection. These findings can help governmental agencies monitor at risk areas according to meteorological measurements, and develop preventions in those at risk areas in priority.

Project description:BackgroundColombia has the fourth highest incidence rate of HIV/AIDS among all Latin American countries and it has been increasing since the 1980s. However, the number of studies that addresses this trend is limited. Here, we employed spatial and temporal trend analyses to study the behaviour of the epidemic in the Colombian territory.MethodsOur sample included 72,994 cases of HIV/AIDS and 21,898 AIDS-related deaths reported to the National Ministry of Health between 2008 and 2016. We employed the joinpoint regression model to analyse the annual HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality rates. In the spatial analysis, we used univariate autocorrelation techniques and the Kernel density estimator.ResultsWhile the HIV/AIDS incidence had an increasing trend in Colombia, the AIDS mortality rate was stable. HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality showed a downward trend in the 0-14 age group. An upward trend was observed for HIV/AIDS incidence in people older than 15 years and with the highest trend in the 65 years and above group. AIDS mortality showed an increasing trend among people aged 65 years or older. The comparison between the sexes showed an upward trend of HIV/AIDS incidence in all age groups and AIDS-mortality rates in 65 years and above in men, while in women, the incidence was upward among those aged 45 years and above, and concerning the AIDS-mortality rate in the 45-64 group. The high-high clusters of HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality were located in the Andean and Caribbean regions.ConclusionOur study found an upward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence and a stable trend in the AIDS mortality rate in Colombia. The downward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence and AIDS mortality rate in the 0-14 age group reflects the downwards mother-to-child HIV transmission. The upward trend in HIV/AIDS incidence in older women and AIDS mortality in younger women rates, compared with men, may be due to late diagnosis and treatment. The Caribbean and the 'coffee belt' regions were the most impacted by the HIV epidemic, most likely due to sexual tourism. Our results provide crucial information that may help Colombian health authorities fight HIV transmission.

Project description:BackgroundDiseases transmitted by invasive Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes are public health issues in the tropics and subtropics. Understanding the ecology of mosquito vectors is essential for the development of effective disease mitigation programs and will allow for accurate predictions of vector occurrence and abundance. Studies that examine mosquito population dynamics are typically focused on female presence or total adult captures without discriminating the temporal and spatial distribution of both sexes.MethodsWe collected immature and adult mosquitoes bimonthly for 2 years (2018-2019) in the Medellín Botanical Garden. Collection sites differed in proximity to buildings and nearby vegetation, and were classified by their overhead vegetation cover. We used linear mixed models (LMMs) and Spatial Analysis by Distance Indices (SADIE) to assess the spatial distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Using our Ae. albopictus captures exclusively, we assessed (1) the spatial and temporal distribution of males and females using SADIE and a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), (2) the relationship between climatic variables/vegetation coverage and adult captures using GLMMs and LMMs, and (3) the correlation of male and female size in relation to climatic variables and vegetation coverage using LMMs.ResultsSpatial analysis showed that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were distributed at different locations within the surveilled area. However, Ae. albopictus was the predominant species in the park during the study period. Adult Ae. albopictus captures were positively correlated with precipitation and relative humidity, and inversely correlated with temperature and wind speed. Moreover, we observed a spatial misalignment of Ae. albopictus males and females-the majority of males were located in the high vegetation coverage sites, while females were more evenly distributed. We observed significant associations of the size of our adult Ae. albopictus captures with precipitation, temperature, and wind speed for both sexes and found that overhead vegetation cover influenced male size, but observed no effect on female size.ConclusionsOur work elucidates the differential dynamics of Ae. albopictus males and females, which is pivotal to develop accurate surveillance and the successful establishment of vector control programs based on the disruption of insect reproduction.

Project description:BackgroundThe spatio-temporal patterns of infectious diseases that are environmentally driven reflect the combined effects of transmission dynamics and environmental heterogeneity. They contain important information on different routes of transmission, including the role of environmental reservoirs. Consideration of the spatial component in infectious disease dynamics has led to insights on the propagation of fronts at the level of counties in rabies in the US, and the metapopulation behavior at the level of cities in childhood diseases such as measles in the UK, both at relatively coarse scales. As epidemiological data on individual infections become available, spatio-temporal patterns can be examined at higher resolutions.MethodsThe extensive spatio-temporal data set for cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh, maps the individual location of cases from 1983 to 2003. This unique record allows us to examine the spatial structure of cholera outbreaks, to address the role of primary transmission, occurring from an aquatic reservoir to the human host, and that of secondary transmission, involving a feedback between current and past levels of infection. We use Ripley's K and L indices and bootstrapping methods to evaluate the occurrence of spatial clustering in the cases during outbreaks using different temporal windows. The spatial location of cases was also confronted against the spatial location of water sources.ResultsSpatial clustering of cholera cases was detected at different temporal and spatial scales. Cases relative to water sources also exhibit spatial clustering.ConclusionsThe clustering of cases supports an important role of secondary transmission in the dynamics of cholera epidemics in Matlab, Bangladesh. The spatial clustering of cases relative to water sources, and its timing, suggests an effective role of water reservoirs during the onset of cholera outbreaks. Once primary transmission has initiated an outbreak, secondary transmission takes over and plays a fundamental role in shaping the epidemics in this endemic area.

Dataset Information

Surveillance on the endemic of Zika virus infection by meteorological factors in Colombia: a population-based spatial and temporal study.

Publications

Surveillance on the endemic of Zika virus infection by meteorological factors in Colombia: a population-based spatial and temporal study.

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